As it happened: Democrats win key Senate battle, full picture not likely for days

Meanwhile, the fate of Democrats narrow hold on the Senate was unclear.

John Fetterman defeated Mehmet Oz for a crucial Pennsylvania Senate seat vacated by retiring Republican Pat Toomey. Democratic Raphael Warnock and former NFL star Herschel Walker, a Republican, were locked in a close contest in Georgia. The Wisconsin race between Republican Ron Johnson and Democrat Mandela Barnes was too close to call.

And the outcome of the two remaining two seats that will determine which party will hold a Senate majority — Arizona and Nevada — may not be known for days because both states conduct elections in part by mail ballots, which take a long time to count.

Stay tuned.

A history lesson

It’s called history for a reason. The party that celebrates winning the White House is usually mourning a loss in the midterms two years later.

Add to that historical pattern an economy battered by inflation and teetering on recession, throw in fears about crime, and the outcome is close to certain.

For Biden and House Democrats, the likelihood of keeping power in the lower chamber of Congress was always slight. Republicans have expected to gain enough seats to retake the majority. If successful, which was not immediately clear Wednesday morning, they also have plans to neuter Biden’s agenda for the next two years.

Since 1906, there have been only three midterms in which the party of the president in power gained House seats: 1934, when the country was struggling with a Depression, 1998 when the U.S. was buoyed by a soaring economy, and 2002, when President George W. Bush had a sky-high approval rating amid the national feeling of unity after the September 11 attacks.

Is Florida still a swing state?

Govenor Ron DeSantis and Senator Marco Rubio, both Republicans, offer the latest evidence that Florida is becoming increasingly red. The two soared to early reelection victories, both winning Miami-Dade County, which Democrat Hillary Clinton carried by 29 percentage points in 2016.

Florida has been a classic battleground. It twice helped propel Barack Obama to the White House. But the state, where the number of registered Democrats exceeded Republicans in 2020, has shifted increasingly to the right. That’s thanks to GOP inroads with Hispanic voters, as well as an influx of new residents, including many retirees, drawn to its lack of an income tax as well as its sunny weather.

A ‘red wave’ or ‘red ripple’?

Whether a red ripple will carry Republicans won’t likely be known for days or weeks as states that conduct their elections largely by mail, such a California, continue counting votes.

One thing is certain: It’s unlikely to match 2010’s tea party wave, which netted 63 seats, or the Newt Gingrich-led House takeover of 1994, which ousted 54 Democrats and flipped the chamber to GOP control for the first time since the presidency of Dwight Eisenhower.

One reason that won’t happen? There just aren’t that many competitive seats.

The end result? Far less interest in compromise and more gridlock in the halls of Congress.

The most expensive midterms

The 2022 elections are on track to cost $US16.7 billion ($26.04 billion) at the state and federal level, making them the most expensive midterms ever, according to the nonpartisan OpenSecrets.

For perspective: The contests will nearly double the cost of the 2010 midterm elections, more than double the 2014 midterms and are on pace to roughly equal the 2022 gross domestic product of Mongolia.

At least $US1.1 billion given at the federal level so far this election season has come from a small coterie of donors, many of whom have favoured conservative causes.

“When you look at the top 25 individual donors, conservative donors heavily outweigh liberal donors by $US200 million,” said Brendan Glavin, a senior data analyst for OpenSecrets. “There’s a big skew.”

Tech billionaire Peter Thiel ($US32.6 million), shipping goods magnate Richard Uihlein ($US80.7 million), hedge fund manager Ken Griffin (68.5 million) and Timothy Mellon, an heir to a Gilded Age Fortune who gave $40 million, are among the top conservative donors.

On the liberal side, hedge fund founder George Soros gave the most ($US128 million), though much of it has yet to be spent. Sam Bankman Fried, a liberal 30-year-old cryptocurrency billionaire, gave $US39.8 million.

AP

Mehmet Oz, the celebrity heart surgeon who won the primary in part because of Trump’s backing, lost his Senate race to Democrat John Fetterman.

Tudor Dixon, Trump’s pick for governor in Michigan, failed to unseat Democrat Gretchen Whitmer. And while the count in Arizona continues, Republican Senate candidate Blake Masters and governor candidate Kari Lake are both behind their rivals. Both are 2020 election deniers.

Some Trump candidates have performed better. In Ohio, JD Vance has won the Senate spot, and remains too close to call in Georgia, where former footballer and Trump-endorsed candidate Herschel Walker is still a chance of unseating Raphael Warnock.

And in Republican-leaning states, some election conspiracists did win secretary of state offices.

Alabama voters gave the position to Wes Allen, who backed a groundless lawsuit to overturn Biden’s victory that was dismissed by the US Supreme Court. In Indiana, Diego Morales, who ousted the Republican incumbent in the party primary by repeating Trump’s election lies, won the race for secretary of state by defeating Democrat Destiny Scott Wells.

Wyoming Republican Chuck Gray, a state lawmaker who also endorsed efforts to overturn the 2020 election, was running unopposed for secretary of state.