How to pick a Melbourne Cup winner: A bluffer’s guide to punting

It can be tricky to pick the winner of the race that stops the nation.

Some veteran punters like to spend hours studying the form guides, while newcomers might opt for their favourite number, silk colour, a name they like or rely on superstitions.

But what does the data say? Which barrier number has the most wins in Flemington history and are you better off picking a gelding or a mare?

Here’s our guide to help you navigate Australia’s greatest race.

Which silks have the most wins?

For first-time punters, one of the easiest ways to pick a horse is to choose a jockey based on your favourite colour.

If blue is not your favourite colour, then you may need to consider switching. Jockeys who wear blue silks have won the Cup 39 times. Black is also successful, with 25 wins.

Pink and purple (13 wins) and yellow and gold (24 wins) are also pretty popular, just look at last year’s race winner Robbie Dolan, who wore a mixture of both.

Steer away from cream and brown silks, which have just one and two wins, respectively.

Let’s talk numbers

If you’re numerically inclined, you can always pick a horse based on weight, barrier or saddle-cloth number.

Barriers 11 and five are the equal-most successful in Melbourne Cup history, producing nine winners each. The most recent win was Dolan’s 2024 win on Knight’s Choice from barrier five.

Dolan had originally drawn barrier six, but he and his mount were moved to barrier five after a late scratching. Meanwhile, barrier 11 has been in a drought since Americain won in 2010.

Verry Elleegant broke barrier 18’s duck in 2021 and barrier seven hasn’t produced a cup winner since Blackwood in 1924.

No.4 is the most successful saddlecloth number. It has 12 wins, the last victor being Verry Elleegant, ridden by James McDonald.

No.12 and No.1 have a history of success, and no one has ridden No.18 to victory since Peter Pan in 1932.

Horses carrying 51 to 51.5 kilograms typically have a good record in the race, but the most common weight carried to victory is 53 kilograms, with nine wins.

During the past 36 years, only Makybe Diva in 2005 has carried 58 kilograms or more to victory. Verry Elleegant was pretty close, carrying 57 kilograms to victory in 2021.

Other fun facts to inform your decision

1. Only three fillies and 12 mares (female horses) have won the Cup. Verry Elleegant in 2021 was the first since Makybe Diva, which won three consecutive Cups from 2003 to 2005.
2. The colour bay – a reddish-brown coat – has produced 13 of the past 16 winners.
3. Horses whose name starts with the letters I, Q, U, X and Y have never won the Melbourne Cup.

See how the experts are tipping

If all else fails, you can also rely on some advice from our racing writers Danny Russell and Peter Ryan on tipping the coveted trifecta. Read more here.

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