Fairytales and heavyweights: How to tip the Melbourne Cup trifecta

Our racing writers Danny Russell and Peter Ryan pull apart the Melbourne Cup field in search of tipping the coveted trifecta.

Hey, Pete, part of my yearly bucket list is to nail the Melbourne Cup trifecta. Last year, Knight’s Choice blew a hole in that dream. This year, I am placing all my eggs in the Jamie Melham basket. How are you seeing it?

Hi Danny. I have landed one Cup trifecta in my life – Subzero, Veandercross and Castletown. Unfortunately, every other mug in the country picked that combination, too. This year, like 1992, promises to be a wet one and that will dictate my thinking at this stage. For that reason, I have Al Riffa on top with Presage Nocturne, Half Yours and Smokin’ Romans in my mix. But that remains weather dependent, to be honest, as Valiant King’s form stacks up. What’s your plan of attack?

My plan of attack is to leave Al Riffa in the bin. He’s drawn so wide, he might have to swim across the Maribyrnong River before he even gets on the track. Plus he’s got to lug the top weight. History says no. I’m going for the all-female quinella – Melham on Half Yours and Celine Gaudray on Torranzino – and then tapping into the Caulfield Cup and Cox Plate form.

Fair call. That 59 kilograms is a huge impost. No horse since Rain Lover in 1969 has carried that weight to victory, but that might be OK. He’s a swimmer. I was out at Werribee on Sunday morning and Meydaan’s trainer, Ed Crisford, was concerned about the threat of rain for his stayer, who finished ninth in the Caulfield Cup. “[Meydaan] has never run on a heavy track before so if it is heavy we’re going into the unknown and two miles on that ground as well is going to be a question mark,” Crisford said. Those words did not fill me with much confidence. What did you make of the barrier draw?

Perfect for Half Yours (nine), but Meydaan landing gate 22 has pushed him out of my top four calculations. It’s interesting though – Al Riffa (Mark Zahra) and Meydaan (James McDonald) will be ridden by the country’s two best jockeys, so anything is possible. I keep falling back on the Cox Plate and Caulfield Cup runs of Buckaroo and Presage Nocturne. How do you see the imports?

I always get sucked in by the imports and probably nearly did with Al Riffa before you pulled me up. Let’s face it, the French, German and Japanese horses have had a better strike rate than the UK runners, so I’m really interested in Presage Nocturne, who is trained in France by Italian Allesandro Botti. He is out here to watch the horse and has some concerns about the tightness of racing here, but the Caulfield Cup fourth suggests no problems. The German stayer Flatten The Curve is very interesting. Hank Grewe is a man of few words, but the horse has won in America and Germany and will love the wet track and two miles. “We hope for wet,” Grewe said. “He is a very easy horse and can go anywhere he wants in the race, the fence or the pace.” America’s Parchment Party deserves to be 50-1 while Japan’s Chevalier Rose is the same odds but should be shorter with jockey Damian Lane – who had success on Lys Gracieux in the 2019 Cox Plate – aboard. Trainer Willie Mullins is also coming out to watch Absurde, so that might say something. Maybe Willie has a good feeling. Goodie Two Shoes is the lightweight trained by and owned by Irish legend JP McManus. If pushed, I like Presage Nocturne while having a rethink on Al Riffa (it didn’t take me long!). Buckaroo fascinates me. What do you think?

Recent history says coming off a hot Cox Plate run and carrying a bit of weight is a winning formula – just ask Verry Elleegant and Gold Trip. So Buckaroo is a top four chance for me. I have him coming in behind Half Yours, the fairytale story Torranzino (bush trainer Paul Preusker and rising star Celine Gaudray) and the best of the internationals Presage Nocturne. Then for insurance, I’ll throw in Valiant King, Meydaan, Royal Supremacy and bolters Middle Earth and Goodie Two Shoes for third. Round us out with your winning formula, Pete?

Looks bombproof to me if you name more than half the field then talk about how you had second, fifth, sixth and seventh in your trifecta while lying on the couch watching a replay on Tuesday night. This field is even, but I like stayers with strong Caulfield Cup form, so I am tipping Presage Nocturne to win, Half Yours to run second and then value for third in River of Stars and Royal Supremacy. I’ve spruiked then sacked Al Riffa in half a day thanks to your quip about the river, meaning my top three trifecta numbers are: Presage Nocturne (No.6), Half Yours (No.14) and River of Stars (No.21). I am also putting a line through Buckaroo, who is a star, but the race feels like an afterthought this year. Good luck, Danny. Whatever happens, don’t look back in anger.

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