Beware the generation gap: Is this Australia’s last hurrah?

The worst Australia could do as the fifth Test plays out is to take their Test side for granted, for it is historically improbable that it will touch these heights together again in Ashes cricket. It is possible that this series has been a last hurrah.

Too much doomsaying? Maybe. But there is a pattern to these matters. Every great side, by the fact of its greatness, sows the seeds of its own destruction. Australia well know it. In 1983 and again from 2007, an exodus of great but ageing players exposed a gap in succession and precipitated a downturn in fortunes. In those doldrums, England had their only two series wins in Australia in the past half-century.

Again, an Australian team has grown great but old together, accumulating trophies, winning acclaim but stalling turnover, two sides of a golden coin. The average age of Australia’s Ashes winning team was 33.6, the vanquished English 28.3. That gap is tantamount to a generation. Australia have become the dear old things of English caricature.

Captain Pat Cummins is wise to this. “Realistically, there is going to be some rate of change over the next couple of years,” he said nearly two years ago. “We probably thought it was going to happen a little bit sooner, but everyone is hanging on.”

Until they can’t. This summer, Australia have looked a little brittle as well as spasmodically brilliant. Injuries to cornerstone players Cummins, Josh Hazlewood, Nathan Lyon, Steve Smith and Usman Khawaja have hit the team hard. Heroically, Australia fulfilled their Ashes mission anyway, and in the shortest order. But if that toll – followed now by Khawaja’s retirement – is not heard as a bell tolling, it can only be because the whole country is wearing noise-cancelling headphones.

It’s true that sport’s kind of Overton Window has shifted, in terms both of how to play Test cricket and who plays it. Players now tend to start later and finish later. Jimmy Anderson played into his 40s and was a reluctant retiree, and Mitch Starc is playing his best cricket at 35. So is Scott Boland at 36. Modern Australia places great store by match-hardening.

But it must beware calcification. Soberly considered, it is unarguable that bowling excellence has papered over the batting cracks this series.

Meantime, the queue lengthens. This decade, Australian have fielded 15 Test debutants, but only one, Boland, has established himself, and even he got his chance not by forcing his way into the team, but as an injury substitute. Cam Green has been the next big thing for five years, but for now it is true only in that he stands 198 centimetres.

Do not doubt that the selectors have a tricky task. They are charged with picking the best team, but with an eye out for renewal, working with only 11 places – all specialised.

It’s a tightrope, but it can be walked. England and India both have made over their Test teams recently, losing or moving on greats, giving youth its head. In the northern summer, when they played a thumpingly good series, India’s average age was 28.3, England’s 28.5.

In that light, perhaps England’s bullish approach this series was a little naive; half their squad had not toured Australia before. It’s not the sort of cricketing country that can be stormed by baby-faced enthusiasts. Ask Joe Root.

But the narrative arc is bending. In 2023, England had the better of Australia for three Tests, but won only two. Here, they have held promising positions in three Tests, but won one. The received wisdom is that they’ve been uncompetitive, but that’s simplistic, history written by the cocky winners. In Melbourne, admittedly on a lucky dip of a pitch, England secured their first Test match win here for 15 years.

Eight of England’s team in Melbourne were 30 or younger, and seven will still be minus 30 in 2027. Whatever happens, Australia will still be markedly older. At 28, England’s average age now, a cricketer is still growing into their game. At 33, Australia’s average, they are typically consolidating it at best. England’s talent is plain to see, and it has greater upside than Australia between now and 2027.

All that said, it would be foolish to write off this Australian era altogether. Greats in all pursuits defy history; it’s what makes them great. That is how Australia will see it. In fact, by presenting a swing in Ashes fortunes as prophesy here, it is possible that this column is hoping to thwart its fulfilment.

News, results and expert analysis from the weekend of sport sent every Monday. Sign up for our Sport newsletter.