Liberal leadership rumblings have arrived, just as the leader himself predicted

Being the premier is not the hardest job in NSW politics. No, being leader of an opposition plagued by brand damage, policy inertia and an identity crisis is much more difficult. Little wonder Mark Speakman is under siege. When the troops are failing, they blame their commander.

Leadership chatter ebbs and flows when an opposition has minimal hope of winning power at the next election. At the moment, thanks to a range of factors impacting the Liberals, including poor polling, a looming byelection sparked by the conviction of rapist and former Liberal MP Gareth Ward, and jittery backbenchers, the longevity of Speakman as leader is topic du jour among the Coalition.

But the question for those anxious Liberals is this: Is it better the devil you know?

Speakman is cerebral and often approaches his role through a barrister’s lens rather than a political one. He has failed to land a blow on the polished Premier Chris Minns, and has allowed his senior lieutenants to make poor political choices, such as befriending the increasingly isolated and unpredictable Mark Latham. Frontbenchers are doing little to develop policy.

But the Liberals’ fundamental problems are not of Speakman’s making.

The horror showing at the federal election – in which the Liberals managed to be anti-renewables, anti-women and anti-metropolitan Australia – has cemented the party as out of touch. Voters are savvy enough to differentiate between different levels of politics, but the federal Liberal brand has infected the NSW division.

The NSW Liberals are taking on water thanks to their federal counterparts, with the most recent Resolve poll for the Herald making this clear. For the first time in 18 months, NSW Labor is in front. The Liberals’ primary vote has slumped to 32 per cent, down from 36 per cent. Minns and his team cannot take much credit for this. Just as the federal Liberals are hurting their state colleagues, NSW Labor is basking in the afterglow of Anthony Albanese’s win.

Nonetheless, there is nothing like poor polling to worry the troops. With the Liberals facing a long stint in the political wilderness federally, it is little wonder that saving the furniture at a state level becomes the topic of conversation, even at social events (Speakman’s leadership was all the talk at last weekend’s eastern suburbs wedding of Woollahra Mayor Sarah Swan to former Coalition staffer Andrew Dixson).

Leadership speculation is one thing, but there’s a bigger question to be considered: who could do a better job and turn the ship around?

There are a number of ambitious Liberal MPs who have leadership aspirations. The most commonly cited are moderates energy spokesman James Griffin and health spokeswoman Kellie Sloane. MP for Epping Monica Tudehope (from the right faction) is leadership material, although too new in the job to challenge.

However, if Griffin or Sloane want Speakman’s job any time soon, they are making no moves. Griffin’s perceived mishandling of a renewables bill, which ended with Liberal frontbencher Wendy Tuckerman quitting the shadow cabinet in protest, has damaged his short-term chances of convincing colleagues he could do the top job. Sloane is in her first term and needs more time.

Above all else, Griffin and Sloane would be acutely aware that to take the leadership now would be to inherit a poisoned chalice.

That leaves shadow attorney-general Alister Henskens. Speakman knows Henskens wants his job. In a rare display of political brinkmanship, Speakman used the housing debate this week to take a veiled swipe at Henskens, the right-wing MP for Wahroonga who has been a vocal NIMBY.

Previously, to keep the NIMBYs like Henskens onside, Speakman has sat on the fence on housing, adopting the bureaucratic descriptor ADIMBY (appropriate development in my backyard) to describe how the Liberals would approach density. But after leadership chatter hit new heights this week, Speakman came out swinging.

First, on the issue of leadership talk, he told his detractors to “put up or shut up”. Then he reinforced his position on housing, the biggest policy issue facing NSW. The Liberals, he insisted, are YIMBYs.

“There is too much at stake when it comes to the housing crisis,” Speakman said on Tuesday. “It is a crisis that I want my party to be on the front foot of – I make no apologies for being YIMBY.” Speakman was decisive, and Henskens put in his place.

For now, the leadership speculation will die down. With no obvious replacement and no trigger for a leadership spill, Speakman should be able to breathe easy for a time. The outcome of the Kiama byelection may cause some ripples, but it is difficult to see how a loss in that seat can be attributed to Speakman. The damaged reputation of the Liberals and their links to Ward will be to blame if Kiama turns on the party when voters go to the polls on September 13.

When Speakman was mulling the leadership after the NSW Coalition’s 2023 loss, he was circumspect. He told close confidants that if he performed poorly, the troops would move on him. If he did well, and an election win was in sight, his rivals would strike. There is no worse job in politics than being opposition leader.

Alexandra Smith is state political editor.

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