The Woollahra wedding where Liberal leader Mark Speakman was all the talk

It was the NSW Liberal Party event of the weekend. Woollahra mayor Sarah Swan married Andrew Dixson, a former Coalition staffer, at All Saints’ Church in Sydney’s leafy eastern suburbs on Saturday.

Eyes were on the couple, but the chatter was about Opposition Leader Mark Speakman.

According to three guests, speaking on the condition of anonymity to protect their relationships, much of the discussion at the reception was about whether Speakman’s hold on the job was coming to an end.

Suspicions about a looming leadership spill were fuelled at the Swan-Dixson wedding by a lengthy conversation between opposition health spokeswoman Kellie Sloane and long-term party powerbroker and lobbyist Michael Photios, who retains significant influence over moderate MPs.

Despite being elected only in 2023, Sloane has come into frame as the preferred replacement for Speakman among sections of the moderates. Opposition environment spokesman James Griffin has also been touted.

While questions about Speakman’s leadership have remained constant almost since he was convinced to run as leader after the election, several Liberal sources said conversations had intensified over the past fortnight.

After Peter Dutton’s federal party was decimated in May, a diabolical Resolve polling result in late July for the state Liberal Party compounded jitters among MPs, said two party sources. For the first time in 18 months, NSW Labor is ahead in the polls and the Liberal brand is tarnished.

With nine Liberal seats held on a margin of less than 5 per cent, under-pressure backbenchers are feeling skittish as the 2027 poll approaches.

On a bad day, there was a possibility the Liberals could lose eight seats at the next state election, likely to condemn the Coalition to another two terms in opposition, a Liberal source said.

Issues with Speakman’s leadership were threefold, said MPs and party insiders: his preferred premier rating has been hovering at just 16 per cent; MPs believed Speakman was not “cutting through” and unable to land a blow on Premier Chris Minns; and many felt the Liberal leader’s office had failed to articulate a sustained and coherent critique of the state government.

Speakman told the Herald those “pushing leadership rumours” to “put up or shut up”.

“They’re not helping families with rising costs, they’re not holding this government to account, and they’re not serious about winning,” he said.

“If you’re more interested in backgrounding journalists than backing in your team, you’re in the wrong party – put up or shut up.”

Sloane and Griffin were contacted for comment.

The sticking point, however, is who would be prepared to put their hand up to challenge Speakman. Griffin, who would probably run with a conservative deputy, did not appear to have the party room numbers required and was yet to convince colleagues he was a better alternative, two sources said.

Griffin has been reluctant to call a spill against Speakman, with MPs saying he appeared to be waiting for the Liberal leader to fall on his sword or for another challenger to emerge.

One Liberal source said Sloane, if she was willing, would also be unlikely to run unless the path was cleared for her.

Liberal sources who defended Speakman said many of the problems the first-term Coalition opposition faced were not of his making.

One senior source argued that shadow ministers were not working hard enough in their respective portfolios, while another said the party had been damaged by external events beyond Speakman’s control, including former Liberal Gareth Ward’s sexual abuse trial and subsequent conviction, the teen sexual abuse charges laid against first-term MP Rory Amon, which he denies, and the Liberal Party’s council nomination debacle.

Any challenge would have to happen before Christmas to give a new leader enough time before the election, said MPs and Liberal sources.

With parliament not sitting again until mid-September, Speakman has five weeks until the next party room meeting. He will be hoping it is not his last.

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