The 11 days that made Albanese and Labor change their path on Palestinian recognition

Two weeks ago, on a Sunday morning television appearance, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese was unequivocal: there was no move afoot for the Australian government to follow France and promise to recognise a Palestinian state in September.

“Are we about to imminently do that?” he said on the ABC’s Insiders. “No, we are not.”

Even as the United Kingdom and Canada outlined their plans for recognition over subsequent days, Albanese held his line, saying he did not want to make a token gesture. He was not satisfied that the conditions for a functional Palestinian state – free elections, and no role for Hamas – had been met.

Albanese made this argument for the cameras, and also in private, telling confidantes he did not want to move quickly nor appear swayed by external pressure. As elements of Labor’s caucus and rank-and-file members tried to increase pressure on the government, Albanese was assuring Jewish groups in parliament that recognition was not imminent.

But 11 days later, Albanese was on a 40-minute phone call, warning an increasingly isolated Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that Australia would soon recognise a Palestinian state.

On Monday, the Albanese government broke with the United States and made the historic announcement that Australia would recognise Palestinian statehood at the United Nations General Assembly meeting in New York next month.

“We can’t keep waiting for the end of a peace process that has ground to a halt,” Foreign Minister Penny Wong said.

“We have made clear we would recognise Palestine when it would best contribute momentum to peace. September is that time: when the world says this has gone on far too long; when the world says the heartbreak, death and destruction must end.”

Australia has long given bipartisan support to a two-state solution in the Middle East. The Labor Party’s platform specifically supports the recognition of Palestine. Still, there were conditions the government wanted met before taking such a leap. And not much had changed, on paper, during the two weeks Australia resisted recognition.

Questions that Albanese raised on Insiders – “How do you exclude Hamas from any involvement there? How do you ensure that a Palestinian state operates in an appropriate way which does not threaten the existence of Israel?” – are scarcely closer to being answered today than they were on July 27. Critics of Albanese’s decision, including Jewish Australian groups and Israel, made that point on Monday afternoon.

“Only days ago, Prime Minister Albanese set clear conditions for recognising a Palestinian state, renouncing violence, freeing hostages, and establishing credible, accountable governance,” Israel’s ambassador to Australia, Amir Maimon, said in a statement.

“He [Albanese] emphasised that these steps were necessary before recognition could occur. Today, however, the Australian government has abandoned those conditions.”

But once the United Kingdom and Canada had made their moves, there was an inevitability to Australia’s next steps. “We didn’t want to be leading the pack, but we didn’t want to be too slow, either,” said a senior government source. “We were probably moving in this direction, but the momentum globally meant there was a wave we could ride,” said another.

Images of hunger in Gaza create global mood for change

Wong started laying the groundwork for this week’s announcement in April last year. Conventional thinking suggested Palestinian statehood should come only at the end of a peace process with Israel. But as Israeli settlements expanded in the West Bank, Wong argued that recognising Palestine could be a step towards a two-state solution.

Then, last month, demands for stronger government action built as global attention focused on striking images of starvation coming out of Gaza. Photographs of children spurred public outrage and sentiment that the war needed a circuit-breaker.

Anger was also building in Labor’s base. By the end of July, almost 80 local branches had passed motions demanding that Australia impose sanctions on Israel.

Then French President Emmanuel Macron made his move. As ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas broke down, he tried to generate momentum for a two-state solution. On July 25, Macron announced France would become the first G7 nation – a grouping which includes the United States, UK, Germany, Italy, Japan and Canada – to recognise Palestinian statehood. He would do so at a UN meeting in September.

Without pause, prominent Labor supporters of Palestine called on Albanese to follow suit. Former foreign minister Bob Carr called for Albanese to “follow France and recognise Palestine in line with Labor policy and the near unanimous opinion of ALP rank-and-file and voter base.”

Albanese, on Insiders, lamented the images coming out of Gaza. A photograph of an emaciated one-year-old boy “just breaks your heart”, he said. But he hosed down expectations that Australia was about to follow France.

“We won’t do any decision as a gesture. We will do it as a way forward if the circumstances are met,” Albanese said on July 27.

Senior Labor sources who spoke to this masthead that weekend said Albanese had not ruled out recognising Palestine by the end of the year. However, he wanted to move alongside other like-minded nations, including Britain, Canada and New Zealand.

Albanese resists calls as momentum builds

Those nations moved faster than expected. On July 30, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, under intense pressure from his MPs, declared it was “the moment to act” as he outlined plans for recognition. It prompted Labor backbencher Ed Husic, the party’s most vocal MP on Palestine, to make another plea. “Moral momentum cannot be ignored … and it requires of us a reconsideration of our approach,” Husic said. But Albanese, meeting with the Executive Council of Australian Jewry, assured them no move on recognition was imminent.

Still, Australia took another step. It signed a letter with 14 other countries saying it was considering Palestinian statehood as a step towards a two-state solution. That same day, a United Nations working group that included the Arab League released a plan to end the war that did not involve Hamas. Australian officials took note. It was the first time Arab nations had demanded Hamas end its rule in Gaza and surrender its weapons to the Palestinian Authority that governs parts of the West Bank.

Albanese spoke with Starmer on the phone that night. Then, the following morning, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney became the next player to move.

Behind closed doors, the Albanese government was butting heads with Israel’s representatives. Speaking to his caucus, Albanese slammed remarks from Israel’s deputy ambassador, who had told Australian journalists in a briefing that claims of starvation amounted to Hamas propaganda and relied on “false pictures”. (The New York Times later confirmed that the one-year-old that Albanese referred to had pre-existing medical conditions, but the World Health Organisation has said malnutrition is at “alarming” levels in Gaza).

On Thursday, Wong held talks with Maimon in her Canberra office and rebuked Israel’s behaviour. It was the second time in three days that Israel’s ambassador had been spoken to by the government after a lower-level meeting with departmental officials on Tuesday.

Labor MP Jerome Laxale said frustration at the Netanyahu government had contributed to the government’s decision-making.

“Australia has been part of a global push to ensure that Israel complies with its international law obligations … and I think there has been a frustration, culminating in our announcement today,” he told Sky News on Monday. Laxale, a member of Labor’s left faction, also emphasised the scale of voters’ concern. “This has been issue No.1, two and three in my inbox from constituents,” he said.

That public sentiment was brought into focus on August 3, when thousands of Australians delivered their own message to the Albanese government. More than 100,000 people marched over the Sydney Harbour Bridge and protested in Melbourne.

But while the protests were a sign of building public sentiment, they also affected the political calculation as the Albanese government mulled its timing. Government sources said they did not want to look like they were responding to a single demonstration.

The protests also brought into focus another dynamic – discipline within Albanese’s caucus. While 12 of NSW Premier Chris Minns’ MPs marched, only three federal Labor MPs attended: Husic, Cunningham MP Alison Byrnes and Senator Tony Sheldon.

According to sources in the federal caucus, a growing number of MPs had been making representations on Palestinian statehood to the prime minister and foreign minister’s office in recent months. But at no point did the feeling in caucus reach boiling point. Most MPs trusted the leadership of the government to move in the right direction over time, although some became frustrated at what they deemed was an over-reliance on written statements which used incrementally stronger wording.

In the days after last weekend’s protest, Wong and Albanese continued to lay the groundwork for a shift in Australia’s position. As Israeli media outlets had reported that Netanyahu planned to order the full military occupation of Gaza in a last-ditch effort to force Hamas to surrender, Wong’s language became increasingly urgent. “We cannot stand by with what is happening in Gaza and not add momentum towards two states,” she told the ABC’s 7.30 on Monday night. “There is a risk there will be no Palestine left to recognise if the international community [doesn’t] move to create that pathway to a two-state solution,” she told ABC radio on Tuesday.

Sources familiar with Australia’s conversations with international counterparts said Wong and Albanese were collaborating on “advanced” thinking on reconstruction of Gaza, including a potential role for Australia in helping foster a functioning state with bureaucrats and health services.

The Friday before the Harbour Bridge protest, Albanese discussed Palestine with UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres. The Tuesday afterwards, on August 5, he had a phone call with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas. On the call, Albanese sought assurances Abbas would pursue peace, and they committed to meet in New York. On Thursday, August 7, Albanese outlined his thinking to Netanyahu.

“The arguments that he put to me were very similar to the arguments that he put more than a year ago,” Albanese said, in his description of the call. “I put the argument to him that we need a political solution, not a military one, because a military response alone has seen the devastation in Gaza.”

So much about that political solution remains uncertain. But Wong did not entertain the prospect of the peace process falling apart.

“Our expectation is the international community will work with all parties to ensure not only that those commitments are adhered to, but there is progress towards two states,” she said. “There is no sustained peace unless we see a two-state solution. I think we all know that.”

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