‘Deputy sheriff’ no more: Why Australia broke from the US on Palestinian recognition

The Albanese government’s decision to recognise a Palestinian state marks a historic moment in Australian foreign policy, even if the move is likely to have little to no practical impact on the Middle East in the foreseeable future.

The shift has been years in the making, but momentum accelerated dramatically over the past fortnight as global events convinced Anthony Albanese and Penny Wong that now was the time to cross the Rubicon.

Long derided as the United States’ “deputy sheriff” in the Asia-Pacific, Australia is asserting its independence from the Trump administration on a defining issue, even as the mercurial president weighs up the future of the AUKUS pact and possible tariffs on Australian pharmaceutical imports.

Wong called US Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Monday to tip him off about the decision, but this was merely a courtesy call. Rubio has warned that recognising Palestine now would reward Hamas for its October 7 attacks and embolden it to act as a spoiler in ceasefire talks over the war in Gaza. These warnings carried no weight with Wong, despite the fact the US can use its United Nations Security Council veto power to block Palestine from being admitted as UN member state.

While disappointing our closest security partner, the announcement will be welcomed throughout South-East Asia, especially in Muslim-majority countries such as Indonesia and Malaysia. It puts Australia in the same basket as Spain, Ireland, France, the United Kingdom, Canada and other like-minded nations that have recently recognised or flagged they intend to recognise Palestine. New Zealand is likely to follow at the United Nations General Assembly next month.

Just a few weeks ago, Albanese was saying publicly, as well as privately to Jewish community leaders, that there was no imminent decision on recognising Palestine. He stressed that particular conditions had to be met on the Palestinian side, and that he did not want any move by Australia to amount to a mere gesture.

Despite his cautious instincts, Albanese ultimately felt he could not leave Australia isolated as countries use it as a tool to try to revive hopes for a two-state solution and community anger mounts at the devastating and seemingly endless war in Gaza.

“The world cannot wait for success to be guaranteed,” Albanese said on Monday. “That only means waiting for a day that will never come. There is a moment of opportunity here, and Australia will work with the international community to seize it.”

In one sense, there is something surreal about the growing push to recognise Palestine given how disconnected it is from events in Gaza and the West Bank. When Albanese and Wong speak about adding to momentum towards a two-state solution, they are talking only in terms of international diplomacy, not in terms of the current reality in Israel and the occupied Palestinian territories. The goal is not to bring a Palestinian state into effect in the near future, but to keep the very idea of it alive.

In Israel, support for the creation of a Palestinian state has plummeted since the October 7 attacks. Last July, the Israeli parliament overwhelmingly passed a motion rejecting the establishment of a Palestinian state, with 68 votes in favour and just nine against.

During the debate on the motion, Gideon Sa’ar, now Israel’s foreign minister, said: “We will not be able to convince our friends in the world unless we will speak clearly against the establishment of a Palestinian state, which is a threat to the State of Israel ... There will be no foreign sovereignty west of the Jordan, there cannot be. Every area we withdraw from becomes a terror zone.”

As for the Palestinian side, the latest polling by the Palestinian Centre for Policy and Survey Research shows four in 10 Palestinians support a two-state solution and six in 10 believe it is no longer feasible. Under Netanyahu’s far-right coalition government, settlement building has rapidly expanded in the West Bank and much of Gaza has been reduced to rubble.

The same polling shows that Hamas remains a powerful force in Palestinian society, despite many Gazans loathing the group for the devastation it has inflicted upon them. Hamas remains the most popular party among the Palestinian population, ahead of Fatah, which controls the Palestinian Authority. Excluding Hamas from participating in elections or any governing role in Palestine, as Albanese insists, will be easier said than done.

This is not an argument for doing nothing. As Albanese points out, the status quo has delivered neither a Palestinian state nor security for Israelis. Something dramatic needs to change. And Benjamin Netanyahu can hardly be shocked when countries such as Australia stop listening to him when he claims, despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary, that there is no starvation in Gaza and oversees a surge of settlement building in the West Bank.

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