Priced out of paradise: Why more Australians are moving south

The great rush northwards to the sunshine and beaches of Queensland may finally be coming to an end as the state’s property market becomes too expensive and Australians start to rediscover the joys of Melbourne.

New figures reveal that for the first time since the COVID pandemic, more people are heading to Victoria than leaving the garden state, with Melbourne attracting its largest influx of interstate migrants in six years.

Queensland, with its relatively cheap property, has been a destination for many NSW and Victorian residents for decades. This accelerated during the pandemic.

Over the past five years, Queensland added almost 500,000 residents, of which 167,400 came from other parts of the country. By contrast, Victoria added 436,000 people but lost 81,690 to other states and territories, while NSW added 467,200 residents in total while losing a net 153,470 to the rest of the country.

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, however, shows that while people continue to leave NSW, there has been a turnaround in the attractiveness of both Victoria and Queensland.

Through the first three months of the year, a net 4238 people moved to Queensland from other parts of the country. It was the smallest quarterly result since 2016.

Victoria recorded a net influx of 440 interstate migrants, the first positive quarter since the end of 2019.

Melbourne itself drew a net 940 people moving from other states and territories. Brisbane’s net interstate migration fell below 2000 for the first time since COVID.

At the tail end of the pandemic, a net 1000 Melburnians a quarter made the shift to Brisbane. In the three months to the end of March this year, the exodus had slowed to a net 84.

Matt Bell, chief economist with property fund Oliver Hume, said the vast difference between the Queensland and Victorian property markets was likely having an impact on where people wanted to live.

“It’s probably not a coincidence that in the same March 2025 quarter, we saw the vacant land price for South East Queensland exceed that of Greater Melbourne for the first time on record,” he said.

“It might not mean that Queenslanders are actively moving to Victoria, but more likely that Queensland is no longer the affordable solution for Victorians to enter the housing market.”

Brisbane’s median house value last month increased to a record $1.04 million, up by 7.3 per cent over the past 12 months. Melbourne’s median house value has climbed by 2.1 per cent over the past year to $956,000.

According to Cotality, Brisbane’s dwelling values have soared by 78.3 per cent over the past five years. Only Perth, where they have jumped by 81.9 per cent, has experienced a larger lift in values.

Commonwealth Bank economists on Friday noted that NSW had shed 26,500 people to the rest of the country over the past 12 months.

“This is likely in part due to high cost-of-living pressures, particularly regarding housing affordability challenges in Sydney and regionally,” they said.

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