The Metro Tunnel didn’t open early. It’s right on time – but at what cost?

The only people more excited than the trainspotters that passengers are finally riding the Metro Tunnel are Jacinta Allan and her MPs.

Labor took a big gamble committing to the cross-city rail line a decade ago and is here to collect the winnings.

The premier will repeat two things ad nauseam between now and the state election in November next year: the Coalition opposed the new train tunnel, while Labor delivered it “ahead of schedule”.

The first is true. The second is highly dubious. Let’s check the receipts.

Daniel Andrews committed to building the Metro Tunnel in February 2015 and gave a tentative opening date of 2026.

A year later, the project’s business case set out a timeline of “new rail services commencing by 2026”.

Andrews then claimed in February 2018 that the project was running “ahead of schedule” and would open in 2025, “a year earlier than expected”.

Allan has inherited this boast and doubled down on it, saying repeatedly it is open a“full year” ahead of schedule.

But based on the original business case, the project is right on time.

It set a timeline for the project’s “testing, commissioning and operational readiness” phase to conclude in January 2026, which suggests full services would start in early 2026.

As it turns out, full timetable services are set to commence on February 1.

During the current “soft launch” phase, the tunnel operates only between 10am and 3pm on weekdays and trains run only every 20 minutes.

It is a good opportunity to iron out glitches and for Melburnians to explore the new infrastructure without the risk of disrupting peak-hour commuters.

But the tunnel won’t really be “open” in the sense of operating a full “day one” service plan until February 1.

Behind the publicly announced timeline for delivery, things have been shakier. The first tunnel and stations contract signed with the Cross Yarra Partnership consortium (CYP) set a timeline for day one operations by September 17, 2024.

That was later revised to June 2025, after the COVID-19 pandemic and other issues disrupted construction.

It’s not clear if those deadlines were ever viable, or deliberately ambitious to provide breathing room and ensure the tunnel would be open within the state government’s publicly committed 2025 timeline.

Credit where it is due: projects of this size almost always run late. Opening a decade-long, $15 billion infrastructure project anywhere near on time is a rare achievement.

But the claim that it is open early doesn’t withstand scrutiny.

It’s not the most egregious of fibs, but it does raise the question of what was necessary for the first passengers to be on board this side of 2026.

In mid-2024, the state government offered CYP up to $888 million in “additional payments” to finish the project, tied to delivery milestones including day one operations in June 2025.

That agreement pushed Victoria’s bill up to as much as $13.48 billion, compared with its original $10.9 billion budget. The project’s total budget is about $15.5 billion including costs worn by the builders.

We don’t know for sure how many milestone sweeteners are part of those figures.

Some cost blowouts on the project were inevitable, and out of the government’s control, after the pandemic and Ukraine war.

But the government left itself vulnerable to being held over a barrel by the builders, since Andrews and Allan had already wagered significant political capital on a 2025 opening.

We may never know just how much Victoria paid just for Labor to maintain the illusion that it opened the Metro Tunnel “ahead of schedule”.

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