Killing season arrives in NSW as Liberals prepare for new leader

Senior NSW Liberals are bracing for a leadership showdown this week, with a challenge to Mark Speakman’s hold on the top job expected to result in Vaucluse MP Kellie Sloane being installed as opposition leader.

The NSW Nationals will also elect a new leader on Tuesday after Dubbo MP Dugald Saunders stunned his colleagues and abruptly announced on Monday he was standing down effective immediately. He will remain in parliament.

The Coalition could end the parliamentary year with two new leaders after Sloane was convinced to take the top job if a vacancy arises, according to Liberal sources speaking on the condition of anonymity to relay confidential discussions.

Liberals will gather for an extended party room meeting at 8am on Tuesday to formulate their position on net zero targets after their federal colleagues agreed to walk away from the commitment to lower emissions by 2050.

However, unlike their federal counterparts, most NSW Liberal MPs do not believe there is sufficient will to ditch it, highlighting the fact the then-NSW Coalition government led the country in 2016 in legislating a 2050 target.

Leaked polling has also revealed voters in almost all state Liberal seats support keeping net zero, which is likely to guide MPs’ thinking.

As MPs return to Macquarie Street for the final sitting week, speculation has been mounting that Speakman would face a challenge, possibly as early as Tuesday during the party room meeting, likely from Wahroonga MP Alister Henskens.

Several Liberals confirmed Henskens had been actively calling colleagues to seek their support for his tilt at the top job, arguing they should disregard factional allegiances and back him. It is unclear how much support he has, but some Liberals suggest he could have several votes in the party room.

However, despite Henskens’ confidence that he could be leader, even his closest supporters do not believe he has sufficient support to win. Henskens was contacted for comment.

The outcome of a failed coup would likely be so destabilising to Speakman that the party would fall in behind Sloane, according to sources, who is seen by some as the best chance of saving the Coalition from an electoral rout in 2027.

If a challenge does not materialise on Tuesday, Liberal insiders said emissaries may be sent to tell the opposition leader on Thursday that his leadership was untenable.

In this scenario, according to Liberals close to Sloane, an extraordinary party room meeting would be called for Friday or Monday morning to elect a new leader.

If Speakman is deposed, both the Coalition’s leaders will be replaced within days. Nationals sources believe the contest to replace Saunders was a two-horse race between deputy and Coffs Harbour MP Gurmesh Singh and the party’s former leader, Paul Toole.

A Nationals source confirmed Singh was contacting colleagues about the leadership on Monday.

Meanwhile, a senior Liberal moderate suggested nothing was determined in relation to their leader, saying: “we’re waiting, we’re watching”. Another senior Liberal said they expected Sloane to be leader by the week’s end, but added: “This will only happen if Alister does not give up.”

Angst about Speakman’s poor polling numbers and failure to heed advice has aggrieved colleagues. Despite a small bump in his preferred premier rating, the NSW Coalition’s primary vote is languishing on 28 per cent.

Some Liberals are convinced that Speakman, a former attorney-general and environment minister, has been unable to land a blow on Premier Chris Minns, driven largely by the absence of a sustained and coherent critique of the government.

Sloane, a former journalist turned businesswoman, has been touted as having leadership potential. Having only been elected in March 2023, many colleagues felt she did not have the political experience to take the top job. But with her rivals failing to convince colleagues, Sloane has increasingly become the only realistic prospect.

Supporters of Sloane have consistently said the health spokeswoman would not be prepared to roll Speakman as leader and would only take on the job if there was a managed transition.

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