Speakman stares down barrel of Coalition split over net zero

Opposition Leader Mark Speakman faces another major test of his leadership as the NSW Nationals weigh up following their federal counterparts’ dumping of their commitment to net zero by 2050.

Senior Nationals sources anticipate MPs will break from the Coalition’s position, established nine years ago, at a caucus meeting on Tuesday. The meeting is due to come after NSW Nationals MPs receive an hour-long briefing on Monday evening from Senator Ross Cadell, whose policy position led the federal party room to officially scrap its commitment.

Already grappling with significant internal disquiet, Speakman now faces the prospect of the junior Coalition partners splitting on energy policy just 16 months out from the state election.

NSW Nationals leader Dugald Saunders has been under pressure to move on the issue since the party voted to abandon its commitment to achieving net zero emissions by 2050 at its state conference in Coffs Harbour in June.

Nationals Clarence MP Richie Williamson said the “biggest problem” was that the regions, both in NSW and nationally, were doing the “heavy lifting” on ensuring Australia reached its net zero commitments by 2050.

“What the federal Nationals have done has great merit for regional NSW,” he said, referring to the abandoned policy. “It doesn’t mean we’re automatically in, but we will definitely be considering our position next week.”

Cadell’s briefing will be similar to what was provided to federal Nationals on Sunday, based on a report by the Page Research Centre think tank. Titled Delivering A High Energy Australia, the document argues the net zero strategy is “failing” and urges the adoption of an alternative focused on lower prices.

“It is making energy more expensive, the economy less productive, and doing greater harms to our environment and farmland,” the report says of net zero.

Under then-leader John Barilaro, the NSW Nationals publicly endorsed the Liberal Party’s target to reduce emissions by 50 per cent by 2030. Barilaro secured significant regional investment policies in exchange for his party’s support.

Speakman said he continued to back the “long-standing” Coalition position as he accused the Minns government of having “botched the rollout [of renewable energy], failing to get projects online and failing to keep local communities included and onboard”.

“In government, we developed the multipartisan Electricity Infrastructure Roadmap to reach that target and reach interim targets, and to give investors, businesses and communities the certainty they need,” he said.

The Coalition last month established an energy working group composed of three Nationals MPs and three Liberal MPs to work through issues with the rollout. However, Nationals MPs have decided to make a call on Tuesday during the party’s caucus.

Upper Hunter MP David Layzell said he was not wedded to walking away from net zero by 2050, but continuing with the ambition would require a significant overhaul of the way the renewable energy rollout was being implemented.

“I cannot see how we’re going to get there with the current way it’s being rolled out. At the moment, it’s all downside,” he said.

Two Nationals sources were confident MPs would vote to drop the 2050 timeline on Monday. A Nationals MP speaking on the condition of anonymity to relay private discussions said they believed a significant portion of the Liberal party room was sympathetic to their position.

A senior Liberal frontbencher unauthorised to speak publicly said there were striking parallels between the position of Speakman and federal Liberal leader Sussan Ley. Both leaders’ positions were at risk, simultaneously facing a revolt over energy policy and agitating conservative MPs.

NSW parliament sits for the last time in 2025 over the next fortnight. Speakman faces internal disquiet and abysmal polling, and there is growing frustration among MPs with his office. The Cronulla MP has dug in, putting the onus on conservative MPs or the moderates to blast him out.

A senior source said first-term frontbencher Kellie Sloane would only countenance becoming leader in a “bloodless transition” that required Speakman stepping down.

“She’s not agitating, lobbying or having coffees with her colleagues asking for their support,” said the source, adding Sloane preferred taking on the leadership after the 2027 state election.

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