This was published 8 years ago
UK Election: Theresa May rolled the dice unnecessarily
Updated ,first published
London: Prime Minister Theresa May has lost. If she survives another day, let alone another week as the country's leader, it will not be a sign of her political strength.
She will be a placeholder, a temporarily useful plug for the vacuum that has opened up at the centre of British politics.
Some reckon she could sit there, holding back the void, for years.
It seems unlikely. Already, opponents within and outside the party are calling for her to stand aside. Odds are being laid on her replacement: Boris Johnson, perhaps, or Chancellor Philip Hammond, or Home Secretary Amber Rudd.
Some Conservatives are already, through anonymous texts to journalists, calling on May to step down.
Conservative MP Anna Soubry was, typically, more open – she told the BBC that May "needs to consider her position".
"This is a very bad moment for the Conservative Party," she said, visibly angry at the loss of defeated colleagues.
This was May's campaign. She made it about leadership – about herself, her credibility, her strength and stability. This was her mantra, repeated ad infinitum. She was asking the electorate for a personal tick of approval.
Her advisers put her head-to-head against Jeremy Corbyn, assuming she would be the obvious choice.
She wasn't.
Technically, there's no reason she should stand aside.
If she tells the Queen she can form a government, the Queen is bound to believe her.
May's party – at the time of writing – looks likely to be able to form a minority government with the support of Northern Irish unionists.
She is perfectly entitled to wait until June 13, prove her government has the confidence of Parliament, then pass its program of new laws in the Queen's Speech on June 19.
The Conservative Party has a formal constitution that sets clear rules how a leader must be replaced. It takes time.
But William Hague has described his party as "an absolute monarchy moderated by regicide".
Rules be damned, they are not known for long tolerating failure. And May has failed. She rolled the dice on an unnecessary election, and lost.
May has only herself to blame. Her campaign was flawed – from the start, when she failed to convince the country that it really needed an election.
She allowed her party to present a manifesto that cut social care for the elderly – the Conservatives' core vote.
She claimed she was for "strong and stable" leadership, yet she ducked out of debates with her opponent – which made her look weak.
And at the end, after coming under pressure over the government's ability to guarantee the security of the nation against terror attacks, she responded by proposing to rip up human rights laws.
May's authority has been shattered.
It's hard to imagine how she could lead a minority government through tough fights, internally and externally (Brexit negotiations start within 10 days), with such damaged status.
Who could believe she could deliver on what she promised?
How could she be sure that a parliament would pass the final deal she struck with Brussels?
There are still voices in her party saying the chaos caused by May's departure would be worse than keeping her in place.
But it's impossible to imagine Prime Minister May lasting to the next election – whether it is in a year's time, or five.
It's up to her, and her party, when and where the axe will fall.
Nick Miller is Arts Editor of The Age. He was previously The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald's Europe correspondent.Connect via X, Facebook or email.