White House love-in moved war in right direction – but potential dealbreaker looms

Washington: If the purpose of the European mission to the White House was to prevent Donald Trump tilting in favour of Russia’s Vladimir Putin after their Alaskan adventure, then it may broadly be considered a success, even if the tangible outcomes are difficult to discern.

The visitors were warmly welcomed, including Volodymyr Zelensky, whose last trip to the Oval Office ended catastrophically. This time, it ended with laughter and a strong handshake. The Ukrainian president called it the best of his meetings with Trump so far.

Likewise, the Europeans showered Trump with gratitude for hosting them and expending his time and energy on trying to solve the war. They praised him for being the only person who could co-ordinate with Putin and get him to the negotiating table.

That is now what Trump intends to do. He has signalled a meeting between Putin and Zelensky, followed by three-way talks that he would join, which, according to Zelensky, is the sequencing Russia offered. Zelensky says he’s happy to do so. No date or location is set.

On the central question of how to protect Ukraine from a future invasion if a deal is reached, the Europeans appeared to extract from Trump a vague commitment to US involvement – though you wouldn’t want to place any bets on it. In a social media post, he was clear: Europe would lead any peacekeeping force. At best, the US would play a “co-ordinating” role, whatever that means.

The Financial Times reported the Ukrainians were essentially proposing to buy US security guarantees by promising to purchase $US100 billion ($154 billion) of American weaponry, financed by Europe, likely to include the Patriot air defence systems Zelensky wants and needs. And Trump noted: “We’re not giving [away] anything. We’re selling weapons.”

There was chatter about “NATO-like” security guarantees that would bind signatories to come to Ukraine’s aid if Putin – or someone else – tried it on again. This is in lieu of letting Kyiv into NATO, which remains very much off the table.

The situation has echoes of the memorandum signed in Budapest in 1994, when Ukraine agreed to relinquish its Soviet-era nuclear arsenal in return for security “assurances” from Russia, the US and the United Kingdom. However, Ukraine did not get what it initially sought – a guarantee of military intervention if its territorial sovereignty was breached. Rather, the signatories agreed to respect Ukraine’s borders and refrain from using military or economic force against it – a commitment Russia violated years later.

There was little talk on Monday (Tuesday AEST) about “land swaps”, which Trump has mentioned repeatedly in the past week. Afterwards, Zelensky told reporters outside the White House: “We will leave the issue of territories between me and Putin.” On the one hand, that’s a massive question mark and potential dealbreaker – indeed, it’s the crux of the entire war. On the other hand, at least Trump and Putin are not sitting in a room somewhere carving up Ukraine.

While the mooted meetings between Putin and Zelensky could be beneficial, it seems clear they will not take place in the context of a ceasefire. That surely makes their success more difficult. But we know Putin doesn’t want a ceasefire, and Trump indicated on Monday (as he did in Alaska) that he is unwilling to pressure the Russian leader into one.

Some European leaders were uneasy about the lack of action on a ceasefire. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz pushed the point, saying it was essential that the next meeting, whatever that may be, yielded a truce. French President Emmanuel Macron called it a necessity.

Michael McFaul, a former US ambassador to Russia, said on X: “A temporary ceasefire, even if just a commitment not to attack civilian targets using rockets and drones, would create a better atmosphere for direct talks between Zelensky and Putin.”

Moscow welcomed the absence of any hardcore push towards a ceasefire. “An important day of diplomacy today with the focus on Lasting Peace not a Temporary Ceasefire,” Putin envoy Kirill Dmitriev, also said on X.

But overall, if you were Putin, fresh off the red carpet in Anchorage, you would probably look at Monday’s meeting in Washington with some concern. The images of Trump hosting an array of European leaders, all singing from roughly the same song sheet, would worry the Kremlin, as would the revelation that Zelensky has learnt to flatter Trump. The fresh focus on security guarantees, possibly with the US, speaks to a unity of purpose. And the Europeans can offer Trump something Putin cannot: $US100 billion in arms sales.

As a much-maligned NSW Labor campaign slogan once went: There’s more work to do, but we’re heading in the right direction.

Get a note directly from our foreign correspondents on what’s making headlines around the world. Sign up for our weekly What in the World newsletter.