Trump, Republicans and Democrats are all playing with fire – while people suffer

Washington: Donald Trump may not be in nearly as much strife as Sussan Ley, but he is facing a pivotal week in his presidency and, as winter approaches, skating on thin ice with many Americans.

With a Republican president in the White House and a Republican majority in both congressional chambers, voters are largely blaming Trump and his allies for a federal government shutdown that is about to become the longest in history.

His approval rating is falling further into negative territory, according to the largest and most respected polls. Three surveys taken in the last week of October for major news companies – ABC, NBC and Reuters – gave the president a net negative between 12 and 19 points. A new CNN poll has the margin at a devastating 26 points.

Trump is following a similar decline in popularity as most presidents in their first year. But as a polarising figure serving his second term, he started from a lower base than Barack Obama in 2009 or Joe Biden in 2021.

And now, he is copping it over the shutdown. An NBC News poll taken last week found 52 per cent of voters blamed Trump and/or the Republicans in Congress, while 42 per cent blamed congressional Democrats. In an Ipsos poll for ABC News and The Washington Post, 45 per cent blamed Trump and the Republicans, 33 per cent blamed the Democrats, and the rest weren’t sure.

A CBS News survey delivered more of a “pox on all your houses” response. It showed Americans are growing more worried about the impact of the protracted government closure, while disapproval of each entity – the president, Republicans and Democrats – rose to about 55 per cent.

While Americans are being furloughed or forced to work without pay, losing their food stamps and lining up at food banks, Trump is making headlines for a $US40 billion bailout of Argentina and his friend, President Javier Milei, as well as his $US300 million White House ballroom.

Images of Trump attending a Great Gatsby-themed party at his Mar-a-Lago club over the Halloween weekend – just hours before food stamp benefits began to dry up – were splashed around the country. The event’s title – “A Little Party Never Killed Nobody” – was especially unfortunate in the circumstances.

In Australia, such imagery would be political poison at a time like this; in the US, it is much less potent. Still, Trump is vulnerable to Democratic attacks that he is partying with billionaires while the home front burns.

“People aren’t as dumb as Trump thinks,” Democratic senator Chris Murphy said overnight. “They know he’s busy doing ego-stroking world tours and building his ballroom. Everything but trying to end the shutdown.”

Trump’s unpopularity may partly explain why this shutdown has not yet followed the usual trajectory in which the side making demands – the Democrats – eventually caves.

The Dems are insisting Republicans extend healthcare subsidies that are due to expire at the end of this year. Republicans accuse their opponents of holding the country to ransom over an issue they say should be dealt with separately.

Many Republicans believe the Democrats will fold after Tuesday’s elections, which include the New York City mayoral contest and gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey. The wisdom there is that Democrats are appealing to their base, which wants them to fight Trump all the way.

Republican House of Representatives Speaker Mike Johnson said it was actually fear. “[Democrat leaders] fear political retribution from the far-left activists in their party more than they fear the consequences of keeping the government closed for weeks on end,” he told reporters. “It is extremism on the left that is the direct cause of American suffering right now.”

Hakeem Jeffries, the leader of the Democrats in the House, says people receiving healthcare benefits want the party to keep fighting, and promises the Democrats’ position won’t change in November after the elections.

But the long shutdown is testing loyalties on both sides. Three Democratic senators have agreed to pass the Republicans’ proposal to end the shutdown now; five more are needed. Overnight, The Hill reported eight Democratic senators were engaged in discussions with Republicans on a potential deal.

And firebrand Republican congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene has become an unlikely face of resistance against the party’s leadership, criticising Johnson in particular for failing to come up with ideas to resolve the impasse over healthcare, and for keeping the House in a prolonged recess.

On Monday (Tuesday AEDT), the Trump administration partially relented and agreed to use almost $US5 billion ($7.65 billion) in contingency funds to restart food aid - known as SNAP benefits – although it will only allow for partial payments.

Ultimately, it’s a high-risk play on all sides. It appears Democrats have been able to rally their political base without alienating the rest of the country – so far. Trump is betting the normal state of affairs will ultimately prevail, and the Democrats will be forced to cave.

Meanwhile, average people are forced to face the consequences.

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