No need to rush, Albanese. Meeting with Trump can leave a country worse off

At last, we have the Great Trans-Pacific Selfie. Proof of life of the relationship between Anthony Albanese and Donald Trump, and through it, the relationship between our two nations.

That it heralded news of a formal meeting next month means it is more than merely symbolic. That it comes during a week in which the prime minister has been asked relentlessly about the prospect of such a meeting means it is probably some kind of relief. That it comes in the wake of flashes of American anger over Australia’s decision to recognise Palestine at the United Nations makes you wonder what all that fuss was about.

Conventional wisdom has it that an Australian prime minister on the end of severe American warnings is diminished. It says that our leader should be ever keen to meet with the president and risks becoming a figure of ridicule if he cannot arrange it swiftly. And that’s because it assumes such meetings are Very Important. A thing which must happen.

But is it? I don’t ask rhetorically, and under normal circumstances I wouldn’t ask at all. But under these circumstances, where conventional wisdom seems to be little wisdom at all, I honestly wonder. Certainly, it’s a matter of tremendous media preoccupation. And no doubt, when asked by pollsters, Australians will say they care. But that’s quite different from it being a matter that consumes voters’ minds or determines Australia’s interests.

Volodymyr Zelensky had a meeting, and he was publicly humiliated before the world. Even after a reconciliatory meeting in Rome, his reward has largely been a series of non-negotiations in which nothing has been asked of Russia and nothing given. Instead, Trump has mostly insisted Ukraine forfeit territory to Russia for peace. This week, somewhere amid the taking of the Selfie, Trump swung wildly in the other direction, suggesting Ukraine could take back all of its land, and perhaps even more (whatever that means). But this social media post from the president didn’t come on the back of any meetings and could just as quickly vanish in a digital puff if it isn’t backed up by, say, new sanctions or new military spending on Ukraine.

Shigeru Ishiba had a meeting. “We love Japan!” Trump said to the gathered media as Ishiba approached the White House in February. Trump proclaimed that Japan, “a strong and proud nation”, shares with the US “a friendship like few others”, and that Ishiba is “doing a great job” and “is going to be a fantastic leader”. For his troubles, Japan now faces a 25 per cent tariff on its cars, 50 per cent on auto parts and a 15 per cent reciprocal tariff on most other products – up from 10 per cent in April.

Narendra Modi had a meeting. Trump declared Modi “a great friend”, while Modi pledged to “Make India Great Again”, expressing admiration for Trump’s most famous political slogan. Just one week after Ishiba’s visit, Trump described the US-India bond as “the strongest, I believe, it’s ever been”. This week, India was slapped with an additional 25 per cent tariff, bringing the total to 50 per cent, citing India’s purchase of Russian oil as the reason, effectively using tariffs as a form of sanctions.

Given all this, it’s unsurprising Ishiba and Modi recently met. The result was a 10-year road map for bilateral co-operation. The Japan Times says the agreement “significantly ramp[s] up cooperation in a number of areas, including trade, security and people exchanges, as the special strategic partners draw closer amid growing international concern over unilateral US trade tariffs”.

What, then, is the vital need for Albanese to meet Trump? To smooth things over on the matter of recognising Palestine? Perhaps. But even US ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee – about the most absolutist supporter of Israel you’re likely to find – acknowledges this won’t damage the overall relationship between our two nations, much as Trump recently said of the UK.

AUKUS? Sure. But as it happens, Australia is proceeding with meetings a level below Trump, which seems presently to be where the most fruitful meetings occur. Defence Minister Richard Marles met his US counterpart Pete Hegseth and Vice President JD Vance last month, committing to increased military spending. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is also big AUKUS supporter, as is King Charles, apparently. The Pentagon policy chief Elbridge Colby is a sceptic and is conducting a review, but nothing from Trump himself indicates AUKUS is in peril.

And frankly, Colby’s review is most likely to show it’s a fantastic deal for the US given Australia hands over money with no guarantee of the US handing over submarines. If AUKUS ultimately does get precarious and a meeting with Trump really could save it from oblivion, again, sure. But the time for that meeting doesn’t have to be now.

There’s probably not even a significant domestic price to be paid for it taking nine months to secure a meeting. Partly, this is because of Albanese’s dominant political position, and the Coalition’s continuing disarray which has shown up this week in ongoing infighting. But mostly, it’s because Albanese is in an unprecedented political moment where polls reveal Australians to be highly suspicious of the US president, which gives Albanese a licence to pursue a more independent foreign policy. That’s why he can so confidently ignore US objections and walk with European leaders towards recognising Palestine.

Perhaps this is why Albanese has seemed broadly calm as questions about a meeting became incessant. Presumably, he has known for a while that a meeting was in the works. Now, with it in the diary, who would even be brave enough to guarantee it will happen? And if it does, that anything concluded from it will last?

Such is the weirdness of the time, where the trivial and the consequential so often resemble each other. A time where selfies and statements can carry equal weight.

Waleed Aly is a regular columnist.

Get a weekly wrap of views that will challenge, champion and inform your own. Sign up for our Opinion newsletter.