‘AUKUS is safe’: Pentagon backs plan to sell submarines to Australia, report says

Australia is increasingly confident it will be able to buy nuclear-powered submarines from the US once the Pentagon finishes its review of the AUKUS pact.

The Pentagon study is said to have largely endorsed the pact after months of doubt about American support for the agreement, ahead of a visit by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese to meet US President Donald Trump at the White House on October 20.

But there is no confirmation in Australia on the timing of any decision by Trump to commit to the AUKUS plan, although a detailed report from Nikkei Asia says the overall pact is “safe” and the Pentagon review will conclude before Albanese arrives for the White House meeting.

Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles responded to the report by declaring “AUKUS is happening” and expressing high confidence in the pact, although he acknowledged on Tuesday morning that the Pentagon could identify ways to improve the outcome.

Albanese declared in London on Friday and Abu Dhabi on Tuesday that he believed the AUKUS agreement would go ahead.

Several government sources, who spoke on the condition they remain unnamed, said Marles received positive indications about AUKUS when he met with senior members of the Trump administration in Washington last month.

The sources said Australia had made submissions to the Pentagon review and the Albanese government was still waiting on the findings. There are still fears the Pentagon could ask Australia for more money, cast doubt about US submarine production capacity or make demands about Australia’s role in any conflict with Taiwan.

Doubts about Trump’s support for the key proposal to sell at least three Virginia-class submarines to Australia from the early 2030s were heightened when US Under Secretary of War for Policy, Elbridge Colby, announced the review in June.

Another plan under the pact is for the US to share nuclear-propulsion technology so the UK and Australia can work together on a new AUKUS-class submarine to arrive from the early 2040s.

“AUKUS is safe,” one official from a member country told Nikkei Asia.

It added that industrial delays might affect the delivery of the submarines but that no political decision had been made to alter the schedule.

This suggests the pact will proceed with the sale of three to five Virginia-class submarines to Australia from 2032. Two of these vessels will be “second-hand” from the US Navy, while the third would be new off the production line. They are to be nuclear-powered but not armed with nuclear weapons.

“AUKUS is happening – that’s not in question,” Marles told ABC Radio in Melbourne on Tuesday morning.

“An incoming government having a review about how AUKUS can be done better is a really natural step for an incoming government to take – it’s a step that we took when we came to government.”

Asked if the deal was safe, Marles said he was “very confident” about the agreement, but he added that he was open to improvements: “How we can do this better is something that we all will continue to be striving for throughout the progress of AUKUS.”

The defence pact, signed in 2021, commits Australia, the UK and the US to co-operating on a “pillar one” plan to build nuclear-powered submarines and a “pillar two” ambition for co-operation on defence science and technology.

British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer reminded Trump of the importance of AUKUS during his state visit to the UK last week, while King Charles highlighted it in his address to a royal banquet in the president’s honour.

Asked the Nikkei report during his visit to the United Arab Emirates on Tuesday, Albanese said the AUKUS review was ongoing but Australia had been “participating very constructively ... and AUKUS has been meeting its milestones”.

“And that is why in discussions I’ve had with the United Kingdom and with the United States, there has been support for it,” he said.

Albanese spoke with British Defence Secretary John Healey on the sidelines of the UK Labour Party’s annual conference on Sunday. Healey signed an AUKUS treaty with Marles during a visit to Australia in July, demonstrating the UK’s commitment to the plan.

The Washington Post reported this month that the US administration had assured Marles that the defence pact would continue. The Nikkei report is specific about the sale of the Virginia-class submarines.

The review was sparked in part by Pentagon concerns that US industry was not building new submarines quickly enough to justify the sale of existing vessels to Australia.

Any delay to the Virginia-class sale opens a capability gap for the Royal Australian Navy while it waits for the delivery of the later AUKUS-class vessels.

Australia has pledged to contribute $5 billion towards the development of the US shipbuilding industry.

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