Ahead of crucial meeting, Trump and Rubio pull in opposite directions

Washington: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio spent all day telling TV interviewers that high-stakes negotiations to end a war are best done behind closed doors. Then his boss opened Truth Social.

Rubio was doing the rounds on the Sunday morning political talk shows, politely declining invitations to reveal what was sought from Russian President Vladimir Putin when he met US President Donald Trump in Alaska, or what Putin was willing to give up, if anything.

“These peace deals, these peace agreements and negotiations, they don’t work when they’re conducted in the media, either through leaks or through lies,” Rubio told This Week on ABC. “They don’t work if you go out and say aggressive and abrasive things about one side or the other – because then they just walk away.”

On CBS’ Face the Nation, he said: “We’re not going to negotiate this in the media … There’s no conditions that can be imposed on Ukraine. They’re going to have to accept things, but they’re going to have to get things, too.”

And on Fox Business, Rubio said: “If one side gets everything they want, that’s not a peace deal. It’s called surrender. And I don’t think this is a war that’s going to end any time soon on the basis of surrender.”

All told, Rubio was clear and consistent throughout his major television appearances. This was a difficult negotiation between two warring parties that were not inclined to make concessions, he said. The US was doing its best to mediate a conflict it was not directly involved in, and meeting Putin was not a sin – in fact, it was crucial, and Trump was the only one who could do it.

He actually made a fairly persuasive case about the realities of diplomacy and the need to give it a chance.

But then on Sunday night (Monday AEST), Rubio was majorly undercut by his boss when Trump – amid a burst of social media activity – put Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky on notice.

“President Zelensky of Ukraine can end the war with Russia almost immediately, if he wants to, or he can continue to fight,” Trump posted on Truth Social.

“Remember how it started. No getting back [former president Barack] Obama-given Crimea (12 years ago, without a shot being fired!) and NO GOING INTO NATO BY UKRAINE. Some things never change!!!”

On the one hand, this is fairly benign. Zelensky is constitutionally required to say Ukraine cannot cede Crimea to Putin, but nobody seriously thinks it will be returned to Kyiv as part of negotiations to end the current war. Likewise, Ukrainian membership of NATO has never really been viable given the objections of some members. The Biden administration agreed.

But Trump’s messaging is all one way. It piles pressure on Zelensky and exerts almost none on Putin. Granted, the US is arming Ukraine and sanctioning Russia – so perhaps those things do the talking. Still, Trump is doing exactly what Rubio cautions against: setting the parameters in public.

And what to make of his contention that Zelensky could end the war immediately? How? It sounds suspiciously like surrender, even if he doesn’t necessarily mean it that way. But the idea speaks to Trump’s entrenched view that Ukraine doesn’t “hold the cards”, and that as a physically larger, more powerful nation, Russia’s claims to territory are to be taken seriously and even indulged.

Trump has made clear he does not have a truck in this race. He does not care about Ukraine’s sovereignty and has no interest in making judgments about the right and wrong of the invasion. He seems to genuinely abhor war, but is unwilling to blame Putin for it.

That disinterest may yet enable him to pull off a miracle, but with each instalment of this saga, that feels less likely. As Rubio said on Sunday: “We’re not at the precipice of a peace agreement, we’re not at the edge of one. But I do think progress was made.”

Meanwhile, as they arrive in Washington for a crucial meeting with Trump, the Europeans must wonder if they are flying into another ambush.

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