Trump ‘curious’ on why Iran has not capitulated as new protests erupt in Tehran

Iranian university students have resumed protesting against the regime on the first day of a new semester, as US President Donald Trump considers limited military strikes to pressure the Islamic Republic into signing a new nuclear deal.

Trump’s Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff said at the weekend that the president was “curious” as to why Iran hadn’t capitulated to American demands in the face of the ongoing military build-up.

Trump warned on Friday that limited strikes against Iran were possible, as Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran expected to have a proposed deal ready in coming days.

The next round of talks between the two sides will be held in Geneva this Thursday, Oman’s foreign minister said on Sunday, shortly after Araghchi said he expected to meet Witkoff then.

Speaking on Fox News on Saturday (US time), Witkoff said: “I don’t want to use the word ‘frustrated’ because [Trump] understands he has plenty of alternatives, but he’s curious as to why they haven’t ... I don’t want to use the word ‘capitulated’, but why they haven’t capitulated”.

The Pentagon has orchestrated a massive deployment to the region that includes two aircraft carriers, fighter jets and refuelling planes, giving Trump the option to launch limited or extended operations against Iran.

Trump has also reportedly been briefed on options to assassinate the son of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and various mullahs.

Reuters reported that Iran has offered fresh concessions since the end of the last round of talks, when the sides appeared far apart, in a move analysts said suggests Tehran is trying to keep diplomacy alive and stave off a major US strike.

An unnamed official told Reuters that Tehran would seriously consider a combination of sending half its most highly enriched uranium abroad, diluting the rest and taking part in creating a regional enrichment consortium – an idea periodically raised in years of Iran-linked diplomacy.

Witkoff told Fox News that “zero enrichment” was non-negotiable for any deal with Iran, “and we have to have the material back”.

“They’re probably a week away from having industrial-grade bomb-making material, and that’s really dangerous, so you can’t have that,” he said. “This is something they have to stick with until they prove to us that they can behave.”

Araghchi told CBS on Sunday there was a “good chance” of a diplomatic solution to the nuclear issue, adding that it was the only matter under discussion.

Asked during a news conference on Friday what his message would be to the Iranian people, Trump said: “They better negotiate a fair deal. They better negotiate.”

Protests flare up again

The fresh campus demonstrations in Tehran and the north-eastern city of Mashhad came a month on from a deadly government crackdown that killed thousands of people. While the government has not acknowledged the latest protests, state-affiliated news media have reported on tensions on university campuses.

A video purportedly showed rows of marchers at Tehran’s Sharif University of Technology condemning Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as a “murderous leader” and calling for Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of Iran’s toppled shah, to be a new monarch.

State-affiliated news agencies such as SNN carried videos of clashes, with protesters allegedly injuring volunteer student Basij militia by throwing rocks at Iran’s top engineering university. Pro-government Basij members often assist security forces in quelling protests.

Protests were also held at Beheshti and Amir Kabir universities in the capital, Tehran, and at Mashhad University in the north-east, according to unverified videos published by rights group HAALVSH.

In the western town of Abdanan, a hotspot for protests, demonstrators chanted “Death to Khamenei” and “Death to the dictator” after the arrest of an activist teacher, according to rights group Hengaw and social media posts.

The protests coincided with ceremonies traditionally held after 40 days to mourn those killed by security forces during last month’s anti-government demonstrations, which saw thousands lose their lives in the worst domestic unrest since Iran’s 1979 Islamic Revolution.

Activism by students and Tehran shopkeepers grew into a nationwide protest movement that appeared to threaten the regime before it was violently suppressed.

The Iranian government acknowledges more than 3000 people were killed in January, but rights groups such as the US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency say at least 7000 were killed, with more to come as numbers are verified.

Iran experts argue that bombing the country in the middle of negotiations might not only derail any nuclear deal but could prompt further brutal retaliation.

Tehran would probably suspend participation in talks if the US launched a strike, said a senior government official in the region, who asked not to be identified discussing private deliberations.

“He’s not going to get a diplomatic agreement out of the Iranians if he attacks them again,” said Barbara Slavin, a fellow at the Stimson Centre in Washington. The military threat alone – even if the US doesn’t ultimately act on it – “is going to make them less willing to make a deal”.

Israel and the US bombed the country’s nuclear sites and air defences extensively last June, with the president saying at the time that “key nuclear enrichment facilities have been completely and totally obliterated”.

The US and Israel could target Iran’s ballistic missiles, but the danger there is that Tehran could be spurred to fire them off at US or allied targets before it loses them, Slavin said.

The shifting US rationale for talks – and strikes – makes deciphering US intent even more difficult. Trump’s initial threat of airstrikes was in support of the protests in Iran in December and January rather than a nuclear deal.

Reuters, Bloomberg

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