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Trump’s peace deal for Ukraine is easy to condemn. It is harder to reject
Updated ,first published
London: Ukraine is confronting a hideous choice between a horrifying war and a crushing peace with no way of knowing the best path to its future security.
It is easy to condemn the peace plan put forward by US President Donald Trump because of the severe demands it places on Ukraine and its leaders, such as giving up territory where so much blood has been shed to halt the Russian onslaught.
Scroll down to read the full text of Trump’s 28-point Ukraine peace plan.
But it is harder to reject the peace plan outright when the alternative is more death and destruction for Ukraine as the war enters its fourth bitter winter.
Trump is being harsh and transactional with this 28-point peace plan, not least by demanding an answer from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky by this Thursday.
The deadline is Thanksgiving in the United States, of course, but Putin will be the one giving the greatest thanks if this blueprint is put into effect. The simple fact is that the proposals overwhelmingly favour Russia.
The central elements give Putin the territory he has been seeking since at least 2014, when he annexed Crimea and sent soldiers into the eastern Ukrainian provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk.
The terms stipulate that Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk will be recognised as “de facto Russian” territory. Two regions currently divided by the front line, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, will be split along that line.
Ukrainian forces will withdraw from the part of Donetsk they currently control. This is an ugly concession because it seems an affront to the memory of those who gave their lives to defend that land.
The size of the Ukrainian Armed Forces will be limited to 600,000 personnel – roughly half what they are today. There is no equivalent restriction on Russia. This is another win for Putin by weakening his target over the long-term.
These terms would not mark a total victory for Putin. Remember that his goal in February 2022, when Russian tanks came so close to Kyiv, was to turn Ukraine into a vassal state. He sought a rapid surrender and was met with resistance instead.
One of the terms even seems to require Russian to pay, in a small way, for what it has done. It says that $US100 billion in frozen Russian assets will be invested in efforts to rebuild Ukraine.
This element is also typical of Trump and his dealmaking ways. He wants the US to gain 50 per cent of the profits from the investment of the $US100 billion. He also seeks US profits from the extraction of Ukrainian minerals, but there is no assurance about American investment.
Trump offers a security guarantee to Ukraine, but it comes at a cost. “The US will receive compensation for the guarantee,” says the draft document widely circulated in the media. There will be no NATO troops on Ukrainian soil and NATO aircraft must be based in Poland, not Ukraine.
Another item is a longstanding Putin demand: Ukraine cannot join NATO. It would, however, be free to join the European Union.
Trump has given ground to Putin on every major Russian demand. The US president often complains about the Russian leader, saying he will talk about peace during the day while sending missiles into Ukraine each night, but he does not have the stomach for a long conflict.
The terms include ending the economic sanctions against Russia, presumably including the bans on Russian oil companies Trump announced last month. Trump does not seem greatly concerned about the sovereignty or security of Ukraine over the years or decades to come, nor the fact that his public remarks about the war have veered so wildly from one week to another. It is another reminder that Trump’s America is an unreliable ally.
European leaders are resisting the plan for the logical reason that giving so many concessions to Putin will only encourage the Russian president to keep using war, and the threat of war, against Russia’s neighbours.
Europe will be on its own in trying to keep Russia at bay. It cannot trust a ceasefire pledge from Putin after his long list of conflicts in eastern Europe (from Georgia and Moldova to Ukraine) and his increasing use of hybrid war (arson, cyber, criminal plots and assassinations) against liberal democracies.
Even Europe, however, has to weigh up the awful cost of continued war against the benefits of a peace, as fragile as that peace may be.
Zelensky, also, has to consider the 28 points as a way to gain a negotiated settlement. His response on Friday was to demonstrate that he was considering the plan. This is not the easiest option for a leader who has rallied his country to fight a war without rest.
“Ukrainians, more than anyone else in the world, want this war to end, the killings to stop, and a dignified peace to be achieved,” he said.
Zelensky is talking to NATO and European leaders ahead of a conversation with Trump, clearly exploring ways to amend the draft terms into something more acceptable. He does not reject the plan, saying: “We are ready to work swiftly and constructively to ensure it succeeds.”
There is no doubt that Putin wins if the 28 points are imposed without change. The Russian leader’s response early on Saturday (AEDT) was to call this the basis for a resolution to the war.
It is more than that, of course. The draft plan is a capitulation by Trump to Putin. By ceding territory, it rewards war.
This seems unfair. And, in fact, it is unfair. But the draft peace plan cannot be dismissed when there is a chance of turning it into a workable agreement to end the fighting. This is true even if Putin emerges from the negotiation with something he wants.
The fact is that very few peace deals can leave one side triumphant and another demolished. History shows that most deals work when they offer something to both sides.
The humiliation of Germany in 1919 did not deliver the lasting peace the world wanted. The stalemate that ended the Korean War was fragile but was followed by recovery and prosperity for South Korea.
Even the devastation of Germany and Japan in 1945, which remains unparalleled, was followed by reconstruction for the defeated nations rather than more humiliation.
Without a conclusive military outcome, every peace deal is a compromise. And the compromise at the end of a war requires incredibly painful concessions because the fighting hardens a nation against its enemy. This makes it easy to shout down those who will argue for a rational but unpalatable peace.
Can Russia lose this war? Possibly. Russia is exposed to economic defeat as long as trade sanctions starve Moscow of money and slow its industrial production. Could Russia face an overwhelming military defeat? Probably not, as long as Putin can wield nuclear weapons.
The war in Ukraine could continue for years while liberal democracies wait for a popular revolt against Putin that echoes the end of the Cold War.
Europe will have an interest in maintaining economic pressure on Russia to weaken Putin even if there is a ceasefire. A handshake on Ukraine will not spare NATO members from having to ramp up their defences.
This draft peace deal is easy to condemn because it is so generous to Putin – and because it so brazenly favours its author. Trump seems to have only a passing interest in Ukraine’s long-term security while he seeks to extract American profits from its reconstruction and, no doubt, campaigns for a Nobel Peace Prize.
As a draft, however, this plan cannot be rejected. If there is a path to peace, it will have to be explored, dark as that path may be.
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Trump’s 28-point Ukraine peace plan, published by London’s Telegraph
- Ukraine’s sovereignty will be confirmed.
- A comprehensive non-aggression agreement will be concluded between Russia, Ukraine and Europe. All ambiguities of the last 30 years will be considered settled.
- It is expected that Russia will not invade neighbouring countries and NATO will not expand further.
- A dialogue will be held between Russia and NATO, mediated by the United States, to resolve all security issues and create conditions for de-escalation in order to ensure global security and increase opportunities for cooperation and future economic development.
- Ukraine will receive reliable security guarantees.
- The size of the Ukrainian Armed Forces will be limited to 600,000 personnel.
- Ukraine agrees to enshrine in its constitution that it will not join NATO, and NATO agrees to include in its statutes a provision that Ukraine will not be admitted in the future.
- NATO agrees not to station troops in Ukraine.
- European fighter jets will be stationed in Poland.
- US guarantee: The US will receive compensation for the guarantee. If Ukraine invades Russia, it will lose the guarantee. If Russia invades Ukraine, in addition to a decisive coordinated military response, all global sanctions will be reinstated, recognition of the new territory and all other benefits of this deal will be revoked. If Ukraine launches a missile at Moscow or St. Petersburg without cause, the security guarantee will be deemed invalid.
- Ukraine is eligible for EU membership and will receive short-term preferential access to the European market while this issue is being considered.
- A powerful global package of measures to rebuild Ukraine, including but not limited to: The creation of a Ukraine Development Fund to invest in fast-growing industries, including technology, data centres, and artificial intelligence. The United States will cooperate with Ukraine to jointly rebuild, develop, modernise, and operate Ukraine’s gas infrastructure, including pipelines and storage facilities. Joint efforts to rehabilitate war-affected areas for the restoration, reconstruction and modernisation of cities and residential areas. Infrastructure development. Extraction of minerals and natural resources. The World Bank will develop a special financing package to accelerate these efforts.
- Russia will be reintegrated into the global economy: The lifting of sanctions will be discussed and agreed upon in stages and on a case-by-case basis. The United States will enter into a long-term economic cooperation agreement for mutual development in the areas of energy, natural resources, infrastructure, artificial intelligence, data centres, rare earth metal extraction projects in the Arctic, and other mutually beneficial corporate opportunities. Russia will be invited to rejoin the G8.
- Frozen funds will be used as follows: $100 billion in frozen Russian assets will be invested in US-led efforts to rebuild and invest in Ukraine. The US will receive 50 per cent of the profits from this venture. Europe will add $100 billion to increase the amount of investment available for Ukraine’s reconstruction. Frozen European funds will be unfrozen. The remainder of the frozen Russian funds will be invested in a separate US-Russian investment vehicle that will implement joint projects in specific areas. This fund will be aimed at strengthening relations and increasing common interests to create a strong incentive not to return to conflict.
- A joint American-Russian working group on security issues will be established to promote and ensure compliance with all provisions of this agreement.
- Russia will enshrine in law its policy of non-aggression towards Europe and Ukraine.
- The United States and Russia will agree to extend the validity of treaties on the non-proliferation and control of nuclear weapons, including the START I Treaty.
- Ukraine agrees to be a non-nuclear state in accordance with the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.
- The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant will be launched under the supervision of the IAEA, and the electricity produced will be distributed equally between Russia and Ukraine – 50:50.
- Both countries undertake to implement educational programmes in schools and society aimed at promoting understanding and tolerance of different cultures and eliminating racism and prejudice: Ukraine will adopt EU rules on religious tolerance and the protection of linguistic minorities. Both countries will agree to abolish all discriminatory measures and guarantee the rights of Ukrainian and Russian media and education. All Nazi ideology and activities must be rejected and prohibited.
- Territories: Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk will be recognised as de facto Russian, including by the United States. Kherson and Zaporizhzhia will be frozen along the line of contact, which will mean de facto recognition along the line of contact. Russia will relinquish other agreed territories it controls outside the five regions. Ukrainian forces will withdraw from the part of Donetsk Oblast that they currently control, and this withdrawal zone will be considered a neutral demilitarised buffer zone, internationally recognised as territory belonging to the Russian Federation. Russian forces will not enter this demilitarised zone.
- After agreeing on future territorial arrangements, both the Russian Federation and Ukraine undertake not to change these arrangements by force. Any security guarantees will not apply in the event of a breach of this commitment.
- Russia will not prevent Ukraine from using the Dnieper River for commercial activities, and agreements will be reached on the free transport of grain across the Black Sea.
- A humanitarian committee will be established to resolve outstanding issues: All remaining prisoners and bodies will be exchanged on an ‘all for all’ basis. All civilian detainees and hostages will be returned, including children. A family reunification programme will be implemented. Measures will be taken to alleviate the suffering of the victims of the conflict.
- Ukraine will hold elections in 100 days.
- All parties involved in this conflict will receive full amnesty for their actions during the war and agree not to make any claims or consider any complaints in the future.
- This agreement will be legally binding. Its implementation will be monitored and guaranteed by the Peace Council, headed by President Donald J. Trump. Sanctions will be imposed for violations.
- Once all parties agree to this memorandum, the ceasefire will take effect immediately after both sides retreat to agreed points to begin implementation of the agreement.
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David Crowe is Europe correspondent for The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age.Connect via X or email.