Let’s be blunt: Putin has called Trump’s bluff on Ukraine

London: Donald Trump made the war in Ukraine sound like a game of poker when he berated Volodymyr Zelensky in the White House in February.

The American president wanted the Ukrainian leader to accept a ceasefire without pushing too hard for security guarantees to shield Ukraine against Russia, so he framed everything as a negotiation with few options.

“You don’t have the cards,” he said. “With us, you have the cards. But without us, you don’t have any cards.”

Now the question is whether Trump has any cards – or any willingness to play them.

It is true that Zelensky has relied heavily on the US and Europe during more than three years of war. He has never had enough cards. Nobody asked in February about the cards Trump might hold or play because it did not seem to matter then. But it does now.

That is because Trump’s actions since February have done so little to change the war – as if he has no cards with enough value to make a serious difference to the outcome.

The Russian missile and drone attacks on Kyiv last week heightened the questions about Trump when he has talked so long about doing so much. The Russians then struck other cities around Ukraine a few nights later.

Russian president Vladimir Putin is calling Trump’s bluff. It is now more than two weeks since the two men met in Alaska at a summit that was supposed to be about negotiating a peace deal. There is no sign of any useful result from that meeting.

“I think President Putin will make peace and President Zelensky will make peace,” Trump said on the eve of the summit. One day later, he dropped the idea of a ceasefire and seemed to accept Putin’s demands for territory.

Trump talked up his capacity to secure a peace. Putin responded by stepping up the war.

One of them wielded his power with words. The other wielded it with weapons.

The endless talk from Trump has given Putin time to intensify pressure on Ukraine using hundreds of missiles and drones. As well, the Russian army has extended its reach in eastern Ukraine. The Associated Press reported on Thursday that some Russian troops had entered villages in the Dnipropetrovsk region, west of the fighting in the Donbas.

The alarm from European leaders is palpable. Each day begins with statements from Kyiv about the death and injury count from overnight strikes, followed by warnings from leaders about Russian aggression. Then the strikes continue.

Leaders including Keir Starmer of Britain, Emmanuel Macron of France, Friedrich Merz of Germany, Giorgia Meloni of Italy and Donald Tusk of Poland have all expressed their dismay at the deaths of civilians in Ukraine in recent days.

Trump has barely engaged on the issue. On Sunday, Pope Leo XIV took to social media to issue an urgent plea for a ceasefire. “I ask everyone not to give in to indifference,” he tweeted. Trump, meanwhile, played golf.

It is not true to say Trump is doing nothing. His main action last week was to impose 50 per cent tariffs on India announced this month as a penalty for India’s purchases of Russian oil, a big source of funds for Putin’s war economy.

A similar penalty for China, which also buys Russian oil, has been pushed off into the distance. Trump chose the softer target by going after India, while he delayed a reckoning with China by extending a tariff truce for 90 days.

Trump also approved more weapons for Ukraine. This allows Ukraine to receive 3350 missiles and matching GPS navigation kits from the US at a cost of $US825 million ($1.26 billion) that will be paid for by Denmark, the Netherlands and Norway.

The missiles, known as extended range attack munitions, or ERAMs, can be launched from fighter jets and have a range of 450 kilometres. They are cheaper, although slower, than ATACM and Storm Shadow rockets, so Ukraine can fire new munitions in greater numbers.

Europe is contributing more than this. Germany pledged €5 billion ($8.9 billion) in May to help Ukraine manufacture air defence systems, and it is sending some of its own Patriot missile batteries. One week ago, Norway committed seven billion kroner ($1 billion) to air defence systems for Ukraine.

The Kiel Institute, which tracks government support for Ukraine, says Europe has delivered and pledged €167.4 billion since January 2022, compared to €114.6 billion from the United States. Trump often claims, falsely, that the US has spent more than Europe on Ukraine.

But Trump’s main strategy has been to try to pressure Zelensky into accepting a peace deal the Ukrainians do not want – in effect, giving up territory without any confidence it would stop Putin seeking more territory. Zelensky makes a rational decision to reject this path. He needs a peace deal with security guarantees backed by Europe and America.

What other moves can – or will – Trump make? His approach to Putin is inherently weak because he rules out options other leaders would hold in reserve. He has made it obvious he does not want to fund more military aid for Ukraine. He rules out US troops to enforce a ceasefire. He is vague about security guarantees.

The more tentative Trump sounds, the more aggressive Putin gets.

“I’ll know in two weeks what I’m going to do,” Trump told CNN on August 22. It makes sense to be sceptical about this deadline, given he sets and adjusts so many of them, but it might mean he has a big decision to make by this Friday, September 5.

European leaders are suggesting Trump actually has a deadline of September 1 because they think he made earlier remarks about acting against Russia if Putin did not agree to talks with Zelensky.

“If that doesn’t happen by Monday, the deadline set by President Trump, it means that once again President Putin played President Trump,” Macron said on Friday. This only highlights the gulf between the NATO allies: they cannot even be sure about their deadlines.

In the meantime, Trump plays golf. He talks about action, then he talks some more. But he does not seem to know which card to play.

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