How an always-smiling train manager just stopped the hard right in its tracks

London: A smiling centrist has emerged as the biggest winner of the Dutch elections after voters shifted to the middle ground – and blocked the rise of the hard right.

The victory for Rob Jetten, leader of Democrats 66, vaults him into contention as the nation’s next prime minister when he negotiates a likely coalition to form government.

It is also a shock defeat for right-wing populist Geert Wilders, a fierce critic of Muslim immigration and key figure in forcing the election in a bid to seize more power.

Jetten, a former railway manager who seemed to campaign with a constant smile, lifted his party from nine to 26 seats in the elections held on Wednesday.

The success came in part from promises to invest in education and act on climate change, as well as a catchphrase – “Het kan wel” or “It is possible” – that was upbeat at a time of anxiety about security and prosperity.

If he navigates his way to the head of the government, he would become the youngest person to hold the job. He would also become the country’s first openly gay prime minister – and put the Netherlands on track for a wedding that would make headlines.

Jetten is engaged to an Argentine hockey player, Nicolas Keenan, and they were planning to marry next year.

Wilders helped trigger the election by withdrawing from the coalition government in June in the hope he could gain more ground for his Party for Freedom, or PVV.

His chances of becoming prime minister were slim from the start because other party leaders ruled out agreeing to install him in the top job in potential coalitions, so his success depended on whether he could gain a surge in support in his own right.

His party fell from 37 to 26 seats.

This was a high-stakes election because Wilders was uncompromising. He gambled for power with a hard line on migration. He promised to stop all asylum claims for at least four years, withdraw from the United Nations Refugee Convention, end family reunification in the migration program and deport Syrian and Ukrainian men.

Wilders accepted on Thursday that he would not be part of the next government. He remains a significant figure in the parliament, however, at a time when the concerns he raised about migration are being echoed across Europe.

The slump in support for the PVV is certainly a verdict on Wilders, but there’s no sign the concerns about migration have evaporated. Even Jetten, seen by the right as too weak on borders, expressed concern about false claims by asylum seekers.

It is far too soon to interpret the outcome for one party as a broader rejection of tougher border policies. The approach to be taken by the next government will depend on the nature of the coalition that can be formed.

There was no swing to the parties further to the left of the spectrum. In fact, voters turned against the Green Left and Labour Party alliance (or GLPVDA) led by Frans Timmermans, a prominent progressive who was previously a European Union commissioner for climate.

The Green-Labour alliance tumbled from 25 to 20 seats, according to the official count late on Thursday, a full day after the polls closed.

Timmermans acknowledged the setback the morning after the election. “It’s time that I take a step back and transfer the lead of our movement to the next generation,” he said.

The results highlight the fractured nature of Dutch politics, with five bigger political parties vying for dominance and 10 smaller ones playing supporting roles in potential coalitions.

In a parliament of 150 seats, no single party can govern without a handful of others. Even an alliance of three of the bigger parties would not be enough to secure the 76 seats needed. They would be able to govern only if several smaller parties also joined their coalition.

That is a good reason to be cautious about the probable shape of the next government, given that the agents for the various parties will not start negotiating in earnest until next week. While D66 has had a good election, it cannot claim ownership of the prime minister’s office just yet.

But the big setback was for the party and leader who played on anxiety about the future – and the scowls about migration. Wilders has warned for years that migration, especially Muslim migration, was hurting the country.

The biggest gain was for the leader who took on Wilders directly. Jetten countered the scowls with a smile. Curiously, he did so with some language Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has been using in Australia: he called himself a progressive patriot. Albanese cited the same phrase as one factor behind his victory in the May election.

“I want to defeat Wilders with hope, with energy and with the power of togetherness,” Jetten said in one social media post, loosely translated on X, that summed up his sunny sales pitch.

“Too often, we are spectators of fear and division. But that era is over. Because the Netherlands is bigger than the loudmouths, stronger than cynicism, and better than stagnation. It is time for the positive forces to win. It is possible!”

Jetten certainly won over voters. Now he just needs to win some coalition partners.

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