How Osaka’s withdrawal has blown the draw open for this Aussie wildcard

Naomi Osaka already had the two biggest moments of the Australian Open: her show-stopping outfit in the opening round and her fiery exchange with Sorana Cirstea.

Then, she went and withdrew from the tournament.

The devastating turn of events for Osaka – who pulled out due to an abdominal injury – has blown the tournament wide open for her opponent, Australian qualifier Maddison Inglis, who now automatically progresses to the fourth round.

It’s the furthest Inglis has ever gone at a grand slam. But standing in the way of her and a quarter-final spot is Iga Swiatek.

The benefit for Swiatek – besides being a six-time major champion and the world No.2 – is that her opponent has spent 11 hours more than her on court.

Between singles qualifying, main draw, women’s doubles and mixed doubles, Inglis has spent 16 hours and 12 minutes on the court at this Australian Open.

Swiatek has been on court for just five hours and three minutes.

Let that sink in.

Even though Swiatek battled through a roller-coaster match in the 30-degree heat on Saturday evening, it’s difficult to see the benefit of an extra day off for Inglis outweighing the experience of Swiatek. After all, the 24-year-old is well-practised at going deep in grand slam tournaments.

“Sometimes it can throw you out of the match rhythm,” Swiatek said of Inglis having an extra day off.

“But sometimes if you’re tired, it can save you, you know? I don’t know what’s her situation. But I have my match rhythm, and I feel good playing every second day. That’s what we’re used to, so I’ll be ready.”

However, Saturday wasn’t a straightforward win by any means for the Pole, who is chasing the career grand slam here in Melbourne.

Swiatek won 6-1, 1-6, 6-1 against Russian Anna Kalinskaya and was stunned when she was greeted with the news that her next round opponent had already been decided before the match had even begun.

And, there are a few things working in Inglis’ favour.

First, Swiatek would be completely unfamiliar with Inglis’ game. The two have met on one previous occasion at the Adelaide International back in 2021, where Swiatek won in straight sets.

But besides that, they don’t cross paths on tour.

“I remember we played, but I don’t remember how the match looked like,” Swiatek said.

“I thought it was more recent [than 2021], honestly. So, for sure, I need to prepare tactically, and [coach] Wim [Fissette] will watch. I will watch maybe a little bit as well, because it’s not often I play someone I don’t really know that much, that well.

“She has a great run, and for sure, you know, she didn’t play today, so she’s going to be fresh. I’ve got to go for it.”

Secondly, a player who has nothing to lose is a dangerous opponent.

Before this Australian Open, Inglis hadn’t made the main draw of a grand slam in three years.

Unable to crack the top 100 and not receiving wildcards, she would often battle her way through qualifying where she would fall at the final hurdle.

Thirdly, Swiatek has a mixed record in Australia. Already this year we’ve seen her have back-to-back losses at the United Cup, albeit against the world No.10 Belinda Bencic and No.3 Coco Gauff.

But there is more on the line for Swiatek in this match than Inglis, with Australia the only major Swiatek has left to complete the career slam, and she would be the first woman to do so since Maria Sharapova in 2012.

But when Swiatek was asked about it at her pre-tournament press conference, she said she doesn’t think about the milestone.

“I think you guys are thinking more about it,” she said.

“Since the beginning of the year, there are many people coming to me and talking to me about it. I’m really just focusing on, like, day-by-day work... This is how I actually was able to achieve the success that I already have, just focusing really on grinding, match by match.

“Winning a grand slam is tough. Like, a lot of things have to come together to do that. Yeah, it’s a tough tournament, so I have no expectations.”

If reason prevails, then Swiatek should win this match and she should win comfortably.

But, as Swiatek has said, winning a grand slam is not easy, and sometimes the unpredictable – a Maddison Inglis in a draw, for example – can disrupt the equilibrium.

Inglis has grown into this tournament. She already has five consecutive wins at the Open if you include qualifying matches, and wins under the belt can do wonders for on-court performance.

We’ve already seen a number of upsets this tournament. The question is, can Inglis be one of them?

Read more of our Australian Open coverage

• Recap all the news from a bumper day seven
• ‘It’s gross’: Madison Keys’ blunt message to podcast buddy Jessica Pegula
• Burgers, beer and Beyonce’s designer: Inside the Australian Open’s transformation
• The Australian Open has a new pantomime villain, as Putintseva dance inspires boos
• The evolution of Naomi Osaka from tennis player to cultural icon