The Wallabies know exactly what’s coming in South Africa. But can they stop it?

How can the Wallabies be judged in South Africa after the promising signs against the British and Irish Lions?

The best answer is: over a two-week block, particularly after the injury drama on Thursday that ruled out Ben Donaldson and put more responsibility on James O’Connor, even with Tane Edmed named as a late addition to the bench.

Only after the second Test can a fair assessment be made, especially as the first Test at Ellis Park in Johannesburg is obviously daunting – a true cauldron where the hosts can put on a score if the defensive dam breaks.

But the Wallabies will have an exceptionally good idea of what’s coming, based on the Springboks’ most recent Test, a 55-10 win over Georgia in July.

And they will have learnt that despite the illusion of the Springboks morphing into an all-court rugby team under the tutelage of New Zealand attack coach Tony Brown, their game is based on box kicks, scrums and mauls – probably in that order.

Four times Springboks halfback Grant Williams launched box kicks from Georgia kick-offs or restarts in the first half, and the Springboks reclaimed three of them.

In a first half won 22-10 by the Springboks, this is the mechanism they used to get into the game. A reclaim rate of 75 per cent is like gold for any rugby team.

And as if to emphasise their importance, Williams’ miscue from his first box kick – the only box kick the Springboks did not win back – led to a Georgia try from a lineout drive a few phases later.

The Springboks are world class at the kick chase, which logically shouldn’t be the case given the size of their wingers. Edwill van der Merwe, a carbon copy of Cheslin Kolbe, played against Georgia and was brilliant at either winning back Williams’ kicks cleanly, or at least contesting well enough for a teammate to pick up the scraps.

The Springboks also use second-rower Eben Etzebeth as a chaser, or have another giant such as blindside flanker Pieter-Steph du Toit close at hand.

And, if and when they win it back, they compound the pain for the visitors by spreading the ball into midfield and kicking deep again. Within 20 seconds of taking a restart, teams can find themselves scrambling back inside their own 22 to secure the ball and hack it into touch – which in turn sets up the Springboks maul. It becomes a cycle of misery that can be impossible to get out of.

Accordingly, the most important Wallabies at Ellis Park will be the wingers, or whoever is the designated catcher in the backfield.

A fallacy has developed since the South Africans departed Super Rugby, one that says that Australian and New Zealand forwards have suffered as a result. It contains only an element of truth. Trans-Tasman players have lost something without the regular exposure to the South Africans, but it’s the wingers and fullbacks who have paid the heaviest price.

Without this relentless aerial examination, you could argue that their readiness for Test rugby has been degraded a touch. Similarly, we reserve most of our praise for halfbacks who can run and offload, and only those in Canberra have a fuller appreciation of what a Ryan Lonergan-type player can bring to a team.

And even if the Springboks don’t regain the ball cleanly from a high kick, they might get the next best thing – an opposition knock on. The Springboks smashed the much-vaunted Georgia scrum at Mbombela Stadium, and their starting tight five for the first Wallabies Test looks stronger than that line-up.

But, again, the origin for that pressure was the box kick, and the Wallabies can also expect No.10 Manie Libbok to go to the air if the Springboks aren’t getting quick ball at the ruck.

With this dominance, a 22-10 half-time lead was a relatively poor return for the Springboks – but they still do not look entirely comfortable when they try to play All Blacks rugby.

But where they do excel is building pressure with aerial contests, and when they get into the right areas of the field they are relentless at sending waves of big runners around the corner – and they have the ball carriers to get over the gain line four or five times in a row.

There is a way to stop this, and it’s at the source. The Test will be won or lost by how the Wallabies handle the high ball.

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