Is this Australia’s best chance of winning back the Bledisloe Cup since 2003?

Michael Hooper spent an entire career trying to wrest the Bledisloe Cup back from the All Blacks. And the Wallabies great is adamant better days are on the horizon for long-suffering Australian rugby fans.

“I think they’re a good chance [of winning the Bledisloe Cup this year],” Hooper said. “When Australia win it back – which they will, eventually – God, it’s going to be cool for the team that wins it.”

Improved performances under Joe Schmidt this year have resulted in several landmark Test victories, leading many to wonder whether this is the year Australian finally regain the Bledisloe Cup for the first time since 2002.

Is this the Wallabies’ best chance in recent history? It depends on who you ask. After all, this movie has been played on repeat during the last two decades: Quiet Australian optimism meets allegedly vulnerable All Blacks, who duly find another gear and kill off their trans-Tasman rivals to extend their misery into another year.

Here are five reasons the Wallabies can – and cannot – regain the Bledisloe Cup in 2025.

Why they can – great results this year

A 50 per cent win record in 2025 doesn’t tell the full story. The Wallabies should have beaten the British and Irish Lions in Melbourne but managed a great win a week later in Sydney. They then ended a 62-year drought at Ellis Park by toppling the Springboks and produced a stirring comeback victory against Argentina in Townsville.

A Wallabies side hasn’t played with this much confidence since the 2015 World Cup.

The All Blacks’ form

New Zealand have dropped two of their last three matches and are under the pump from fans and media alike. A 29-23 loss to Argentina in Buenos Aires was bad enough, but a 43-10 hammering by South Africa on home soil was as grim as it gets.

“There’s something not right there,” former All Blacks skipper Kieran Read said on Sky Sport. “Where’s that spine that we want to see?”

The bounce-back myth

Sonny Bill Williams warned last week that the All Blacks’ heavy defeat at home was “danger signs for the Wallabies”. But the numbers don’t back up the idea that New Zealand always rebound after a loss.

Since 1996, the All Blacks’ win rate is 81 per cent. In matches immediately after a loss, it drops to 69 per cent.

Formidable, but not invincible.

That said, only twice in the professional era have the All Blacks lost back-to-back Tests on home soil.

Set-piece advantage

The All Blacks’ once-mighty set piece has wobbled this year. For the team’s forwards coach, Jason Ryan, to take “responsibility” for “a bit of a meltdown” speaks volumes about the All Blacks’ problems at scrum time.

By contrast, the Wallabies have held their own, and in former All Blacks scrum guru Mike Cron they have one of the sharpest technical minds in the game at their disposal.

Youthful freedom

Joseph Aukuso-Suaalii, Max Jorgensen and, if selected, Corey Toole are playing their first Bledisloe Cup Test. It’s a cliché, but this is a young group unburdened by the weight of history. That’s the theory, at least.

“I don’t think the All Blacks or the players are under pressure, but I think the coaching group would be under pressure,” Hooper said.

However, the Wallabies have at various stages over the past two decades fielded far better teams on paper and not got the job done.

Why they can’t – The Eden Park factor

Australia have not beaten the All Blacks at the Auckland venue since 1986, while New Zealand have rattled off 51 consecutive victories at the ground since France prevailed in 1994. When the All Blacks host Australia at Eden Park while coming off a loss, the average scoreline is 34-9.

Australia’s last win over the All Blacks on New Zealand soil was in Dunedin in 2001. That’s nearly a quarter-century of heartache.

A two-match series leaves less margin for error

In 2022, the Bledisloe Cup returned to a two-match series, having previously been contested over a best-of-three format. That means the Wallabies cannot lose a Test if they are to regain the trophy. 1-1 isn’t good enough.

Hooper, though, believes a two-match series actually benefits Australia.

“The common opinion is that three games would make it easier to win. I don’t buy into that,” Hooper said. “You can draw the first game and win the second and you’ve got the Bledisloe. Even though you [used to] get that Australian head start [at home], it didn’t always pay off. I think it’s great for a money-spinner to have a third Test.”

Underestimate the All Blacks at your peril

Don’t expect to see any bold predictions from Joe Schmidt’s players in the media this week. The messaging will be careful and controlled.

Remember this quote in 2021 from Andrew Kellaway after the Wallabies fell 33-25 at Eden Park, with another game coming up at the same venue?

“Maybe the aura has worn off a little bit,” Kellaway said. “To be honest, the pressure is pretty much on them. You don’t want to be the first All Blacks team to lose at Eden Park. There’s no real pressure on our end. Hopefully we roll out there and do a number [on them].”

A week later, Australia were thrashed 57-22 — the most points the All Blacks have ever scored against the Wallabies.

Australia don’t start Bledisloe Cups well

Australia have not won the opening Test of a Bledisloe series since a 47-26 triumph in Perth in 2019. Seven days later, they were crushed 36-0 at Eden Park.

In a three-match Bledisloe series, Australia’s last first-Test win was in 2008.

Wallabies’ ordinary starts

The Wallabies have trailed at half-time in their past four Tests. They rallied to win in Johannesburg and Townsville, but you can expect the All Blacks to make them pay if they start slowly again.

Only once in the professional era have the Wallabies overturned a half-time deficit to beat the All Blacks in New Zealand — the famous 2000 Test in Wellington decided by John Eales’ kick after full-time.

The Verdict: Wallabies will get within seven points at Eden Park but win game two in Perth.

Watch all the action from the 2025 Rugby Championship on Stan Sport.