How Eddie Jones could derail the Wallabies’ World Cup chances again

The dust has barely settled on a gruelling British and Irish Lions series, but now the Wallabies are preparing for 11 Tests that could define the future of the code in this country.

In December, the 2027 World Cup draw will take place, and every Wallabies Test from now until then carries vital ranking points that can be won or lost. The Matildas run to the semi-finals in the 2023 World Cup showed the effect of raucous home support, and the Wallabies have the opportunity to tap into a similar energy. But it relies largely on plotting a safer route to the knockout stages.

Chief executive of World Rugby Alan Gilpin is keenly aware of the need for the Wallabies to be competitive in their home World Cup and spoke about backing Australia at the MCG in the second Test against the British and Irish Lions.

“It’s a bit of a strange feeling as an Englishman sat in the crowd on Saturday, cheering for the Wallabies for the whole game, which was fun, there were a couple of Lions fans in front of me looking a bit strangely at me a few moments,” Gilpin said.

“On the whole, I think that’s a team that’s going to learn and grow some exceptional players, and I think there’s a good two-year runway for that team to come into a World Cup in really good shape and get people really excited.”

How the 2027 World Cup in Australia is different

The World Cup in Australia will change from previous iterations, expanding from 20 to 24 teams.

To ensure a safer passage through the World Cup, the Wallabies must ideally finish sixth or higher in the world rankings at the end of their spring tour, to be placed at the top of one of the six four-team pools at the tournament.

If the Wallabies then top their pool, they will likely avoid South Africa, New Zealand, Ireland or France in the 16-team knockout stages before the quarter-finals.

The good news is that the Wallabies are sixth place in the rankings, but the bad news is they are barely hanging on.

There is a mere 0.3 of a ranking point between Australia and Argentina. Scotland are also close, with just 0.51 points separating them from the Wallabies.

The Wallabies’ narrow win against Fiji in June wasn’t just a valuable warm-up ahead of the Lions, it turned out to be extremely valuable on the road to the World Cup.

How the ranking system works

Ahead of a busy schedule, it is essential to have a basic grasp of how World Rugby calculates its ranking points. Broken down into simple terms, there are some key principles.

In each Test, there is a points exchange. One team generally takes points and the other team loses points.

The rankings gap plays a major role in how many points can be won or lost by a team, but the greater the gap, the more points can be lost.

Conversely, a win against teams ranked far below, for example, the Wallabies beating Japan, will not carry many ranking points.

Home advantage is factored in by World Rugby and a team will win more ranking points for an away victory. If a team wins by fewer than 15 points, they will earn fewer ranking points than a win over 15 points.

Importantly, a team can move up or down in the rankings without playing a game. Hypothetically, if Argentina get some major results against the likes of South Africa away in the Rugby Championship or against England in November, they can also potentially leapfrog the Wallabies.

All of these factors go into an algorithm calculated by World Rugby after each Test match, recalculating the rankings.

A free hit against the Boks

The Wallabies face one of the hardest landings possible after the Lions series, a Test in the daunting Springbok coliseum of Ellis Park in Johannesburg, followed by another tough battle in Cape Town.

South Africa are ranked number one in the rankings, five places above the Wallabies. The two Tests present a high reward with little risk in terms of ranking points.

The Wallabies are playing away, which means if they can secure even a narrow win, it will carry up to two ranking points, providing a precious cushion ahead of a gruelling calendar of Tests.

A loss against the world champions would also cause minimal damage to rankings, as the algorithm has essentially priced in two Wallabies losses.

The Wallabies last beat South Africa in 2011 in Durban, but a win in Cape Town is not unimaginable and would provide a huge cushion in the quest for a favourable World Cup draw.

Cry for me, Argentina

The next two Tests in Townsville and Sydney against Argentina are arguably the most important of the year for the Wallabies.

The Pumas are a direct threat to the Wallabies’ hold on sixth place in the rankings. A weakened Argentina team beat the Lions in Dublin, reminding everyone of their talent.

Given the home advantage handicap, the Wallabies stand to lose more than they can gain in ranking points.

If the Wallabies stay in sixth and Argentina stay in seventh in the rankings, any loss would likely leave Australia in an extremely precarious position.

It is far easier said than done, but the Wallabies must secure two wins against the Pumas.

New Zealand showdown in WA

The Wallabies play New Zealand first in Auckland and then in Perth. Given the last time the All Blacks were beaten at Eden Park was 1994 against France, the Test at Optus Stadium will likely be a target for the Wallabies.

Regardless of the home advantage, given New Zealand are currently second in the rankings, a victory for the Wallabies would still carry major ranking points, with a win under 15 points likely to earn 1.70 or over, bringing in 2.55 according to current calculations. Similarly to the Springboks, any shock victory would be a huge bonus, particularly if they fall to the Pumas.

The return of Eddie

The Wallabies arrive in Japan and see a familiar face in Eddie Jones. There would be quite some irony if the man in charge of the Wallabies’ disastrous World Cup in 2023 completely torpedoed their chances of having a favourable draw in 2027.

The Test against Japan in Tokyo provides the biggest banana skin possible, with almost no reward, given the gulf in ranking between the two teams.

A win over 15 points based on current rankings (Japan are 14th), would net the Wallabies just 0.48 points. A loss under 15 points would cost the Wallabies 1.68 ranking points. Jones will be plotting a surprise, and it could completely demolish the Wallabies’ carefully laid plans.

The cold reality of the spring tour

The Wallabies face England, Italy, Ireland and France in November, with each Test presenting unique challenges.

A loss to Italy in 2022 ultimately cost Dave Rennie the Wallabies job; if they lost in 2025, it would do significant damage to their ranking points, but nothing like as badly as Japan. It is still an essential win that is needed.

Any win against Ireland, France or England of under 15 points could carry up to two ranking points, which would be vital if there are any slip-ups against the likes of Argentina earlier.

Given the gulf in ranking points between the Wallabies and these teams, there would be minimal points lost in defeat.

In the unlikely event of a win of 15 points or more against any one of these teams, the Wallabies could potentially gain nearly three rankings points based on current calculations, which could ensure a treasured top-six finish.

Watch every match of The Rugby Championship and Bledisloe Cup live and on demand on Stan Sport kicking off 17 August.