I’ve watched Gai Waterhouse transform this horse — and something is different

As an eternal optimist, I am banking on the adage of third time’s a charm here with Vauban. The former Melbourne Cup favourite returns this year as an “Aussie” contender having joined the stable of Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott following last year’s unsuccessful Cup tilt.

Not since Empire Rose in 1988 has a horse won the Melbourne Cup at their third attempt, but Vauban comes into the race with a completely different lead-up and won’t have to step off the plane from Ireland and straight into the race, which has clearly not worked previously.

The key here is the horse can be tricky. He had a habit of falling to pieces in the yard. By the time he cantered to the famous 3200-metre start, he had already run his race.

This is something Gai and Adrian have worked tirelessly on and is a credit to the “First Lady of Racing’s” horsemanship skills. I saw this horse at the races in Sydney more times than I could count, having a day out to gain experience and stand in the tie-up stalls then head back home without a run.

Gai says that now, while he still has his quirks, Vauban’s a different horse with his manners.

Will this change in his demeanour and the natural mental maturity that comes with being another year older aid his chances in winning the great race? I think so.

Combine that with a lovely draw in barrier two where he should be able to hold a mid-field position. Along with top jockey Blake Shinn, who won the race in 2008 aboard Viewed (the horse I drew in the Cup sweep as a young girl), and the stars begin to align.

He looks like a horse whose best chance comes when ridden cold, and the barrier gives him that chance.

As a bonus, he will handle the wet track conditions and will also no doubt enjoy much cooler weather in the mounting yard for his hot temperament.

Whilst Gai and Adrian had one-time favourite Sir Delius scratched from the race a few weeks ago, the racing gods may yet have a plan. And he’s a much better price this year too.

I also think two raiders will run well – the French horse Presage Nocturne and Absurde, also in his third run in the race.

The grey Presage Nocturne was an eye-catching fourth in the Caulfield Cup and I love it when they have a run in Australia before the Cup. And remember another adage – back a grey on a rainy day!

Absurde ran seventh in 2023 and fifth last year, and he also ran in the Caulfield Cup since arriving for a good seventh. There’s no reason he can’t run well, except maybe the rain, but that will be a factor for every runner.

For fourth, I put in my old friend Arapaho who’ll get the trip after winning the Sydney Cup in the autumn.

Ally Mosley is a racing expert with TAB, SkyRacing and Nine.

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