Mey day, mey day: This is the horse we expect to win the Caulfield Cup

Meydaan, an English horse with foreign form lines, looms as the biggest threat to Jamie Melham’s history-making bid to become the first woman to ride the winner of the $5 million Caulfield Cup.

Meydaan is rated the runner most likely to topple Melham’s red-hot favourite Half Yours in Saturday’s 2400m handicap event on the back of his third in the group 3 September Stakes over 2412m at Kempton Park, England.

The Age dissects the Caulfield Cup field to rate the leading chances:

Race 9: $5m Group 1 Caulfield Cup (2400m), 5.15pm

The favourite: Half Yours catapulted into favouritism after winning the group 3 Naturalism Stakes last month and franked that form with a flashing-light fourth in the Turnbull Stakes. Drops to 52.5kg and has drawn gate two. A big chance for Jamie Melham to land a major group 1. The horse has been in work since March.

The threats: UK import Meydaan (56kg) has been targeted at this race on the back of solid UK form. Gate five is a big plus, the booking of international jockey Andrea Atzeni is a worry. Ciaron Maher-trained Royal Supremacy (52.5kg) has rocketed into contention after winning The Metropolitan and will be partnered by the singing jockey Robbie Dolan. Not sure about The Metrop as a form race. Punters have also supported Vauban (58.5kg), a former Irish stayer now in the hands of Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott, who ran fifth behind Royal Supremacy.

The roughies: If we think that the Turnbull Stakes is the best lead-up race, then consideration has to go to Deakin (54kg) and Middle Earth (56.5kg), who finished sixth and ninth in that race. Don’t discard Japanese mare Golden Snap (53.5kg), while Adelaide River (54kg) has the potential to lead and pinch the race.

Caulfield Cup tips: 1st Meydaan (No.4), 2nd Half Yours (No.15), 3rd Middle Earth (No.3), 4th Deakin (No.10)

Russell says: English trainers Simon and Ed Crisford have proven they know the right horse to bring to Australia. Their stable says Meydaan is a stayer on the up.

Caulfield Cup trifecta play: 3, 4, 10, 15 - 3, 4, 8, 10, 11, 15, 16 - 3, 4, 8, 10, 11, 15, 16

Russell’s best: (Race 8, No.2) – Private Eye is good enough to be lining up in The Everest, so should be winning at Caulfield.

Russell’s next best: Apocalyptic (Race 7, No.1) – The Mitch Freedman-trained filly is the shortest favourite on the card, but will anchor a lot of quaddies.

Cup day quaddie: 1st leg: 1, 3; 2nd leg: 2; 3rd leg: 3, 4, 10, 15; 4th leg: 1, 2, 5, 10.

‘Heightened risk of injury’: Melbourne Cup favourite scratched

Melbourne Cup favourite Sir Delius has been sensationally scratched from the country’s greatest staying race by Racing Victoria stewards, dealing a bitter blow to training partnership Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott.

The five-year-old stallion has also been pulled out of the Cox Plate, robbing Waterhouse of the chance to win the coveted Moonee Valley weight-for-age championship for the first time.

Sir Delius is the latest runner to fail Racing Victoria’s controversial safety protocols, despite being sound enough to win back-to-back group 1 races in the past month.

Racing Victoria released a statement on Friday afternoon to say that compulsory CT and PET scans of the galloper’s legs had revealed he was at “heightened risk of injury” if he continued to compete over coming weeks.

As a result, stewards said the five-year-old stallion had been ruled out for the remainder of the spring carnival.

Waterhouse and Bott were contacted for comment.

Last year, five horses were scratched by Racing Victoria in the final eight days before the Melbourne Cup.

Irish trainer Aidan O’Brien criticised the process when his highly fancied three-year-old Jan Brueghel was ruled unfit to run in Flemington’s 3200m staying test.

“Very few horses pass the criteria, especially young horses,” O’Brien told Racing Post at the time.

“It’s very difficult for three-year-olds to get through because they are still growing and their bones are still maturing, so I wouldn’t be sure about any of them getting in and being allowed to run. It’s ridiculous, really.”

The highly credentialed Sir Delius joined the Waterhouse and Bott stable from France after finishing eighth in last year’s Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe.

He rocketed to favouritism in both the Cox Plate and Melbourne Cup after winning the group 1 Underwood Stakes and the group 1 Turnbull Stakes, beating home superstar Via Sistina.

Many believed Sir Delius could deliver Waterhouse her first victory in the Cox Plate and second Melbourne Cup.

The scratching leaves regular jockey Craig Williams searching for a replacement ride in both races.

Sir Delius is owned by Kiwi businessman Sir Owen Glenn.

The horse had a CT scan at the University of Melbourne Equine Centre in Werribee earlier this week before a follow-up PET scan on Thursday.

After reviewing those scans, an independent panel of three vets advised RV stewards that the horse had a leg issue.

All Melbourne Cup runners have to undergo CT scans before Thursday, October 30.

The Melbourne Cup has been fatality free since the strict safety protocols were introduced in 2021.

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