The in-form favourite, the X-factor and the wet-track specialist: Michelle Payne rates every Cup runner

It is never too early to start combing through the Melbourne Cup entries ahead of the race that stops a nation.

The Derby has been run and won, and the barrier draw has sorted the all-important starting positions for the great race. Here’s the field of 24, starting with the top weight.

Al Riffa (Fra)

6yoH (stallion), 59kg
Barrier: 19
Trainer: Joseph O’Brien
Jockey: Mark Zahra
Career: 15: 5-5-1
Last start: First of nine, group 1 Irish St Leger (2816 metres)

Michelle Payne: He sounds a very exciting horse. Barrier is definitely no help but if the rain comes it might bring him more into calculations. The weight is obviously the question mark.

Danny Russell says: Impeccable UK and Irish form, and bought by Australian connections with this race in mind. But history says that top-weighted imports don’t win our greatest staying race first-up in Australia. Has gun hoop Mark Zahra on board, who has won two of the past three Cups. Will be pushing for top five.

Buckaroo (GB)

7yoG (gelding), 57kg
Barrier: 12
Trainer: Chris Waller
Jockey: Craig Williams
Career: 30: 5-6-5
Last start: Second of eight, group 1 Cox Plate (2040m)

Payne says: Terrific chance. There were doubts over whether he would start, but that he’s starting now means that he’s fit and well. He had a terrific lead-up run in the Cox Plate into the Cup. Looks like he’s flying.

Russell says: Connections were unsure about a Cup path until his brilliant second in the Cox Plate. Last year he copped a Joao Moreira shocker, with the Brazilian jockey heading via Footscray to get to the finish line. More weight this year (2.5kg), but with a conservative steer from Craig Williams has to be a leading chance.

Arapaho (Fra)

9yoG, 56.5kg
Barrier: 15
Trainer: Bjorn Baker
Jockey: Rachel King
Career: 48: 10-6-4
Last start: Eighth of 11, group 3 Bendigo Cup (2400m)

Payne: Really good, strong stayer; won the Sydney Cup. Despite a tricky barrier, Arapaho likes the wet so will be in contention for sure if it does rain.

Russell says: A grand old stager who is no stranger to the staying distance, having won this year’s Sydney Cup over 3200m. Just so-so in the Bendigo Cup, but he will be better suited by wet ground, so a Cup week deluge will help. Can see colourful trainer Bjorn Baker pulling out the rain dance music about 5pm on Sunday.

Vauban (Fra)

8yoG, 56.5kg
Barrier: 2
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott
Jockey: Blake Shinn
Career: 28: 9-5-4
Last start: 13th of 18, group 1 Caulfield Cup (2400m)

Payne: Really needs to turn his form around. He’s got the ability, it’s just a matter of whether he can on the day.

Russell says: Moved to an Australian stable late last year after growing up in Ireland, so probably should be working on a construction site or an outback pub before being granted a permanent visa. Has flopped twice in the past two Cups. Not sure he can turn it around.

Chevalier Rose (Jpn)

8yoH, 55.5kg
Barrier: 5
Trainer: Hisashi Shimizu
Jockey: Damian Lane
Career: 35: 5-5-2
Last start: 14th of 16, group 2 Sapporo Kinen Stakes (2210m)

Payne: Needs to really do something special. Its recent form suggests it’s not flying going into the race, but we can’t rule out the Japanese.

Russell says: Jockey Damian Lane connects with Japanese horses like AirPods to an iPhone, and Chevalier Rose is from the same stable as 2019 Caulfield Cup winner Mer De Glace. But this fella is not a regular winner and would have preferred a lead-up run. Will also need a firm track.

Presage Nocturne (Ire)

6yoH, 55.5kg
Barrier: 9
Trainer: Alessandro Botti
Jockey: Stephane Pasquier
Career: 17: 5-5-3
Last start: Fourth of 18, group 1 Caulfield Cup (2400m)

Payne says: Had a brilliant run in the Caulfield Cup as a lead-up to the Melbourne Cup; certainly the rain brings it in as well.

Russell says: An Irish-bred horse with an Italian trainer and a French jockey. How exotic is that? Impressive lineage aside, his run in the Caulfield Cup was a belter and a perfect Melbourne Cup tune-up. Good French form, good lead-up form. Massive top-three chance.

Middle Earth (GB)

6yoG, 54.5kg
Barrier: 13
Trainer: Ciaron Maher
Jockey: Ethan Brown
Career: 17: 5-2-2
Last start: Third of nine, group 3 JRA Cup (2040m)

Payne says: Probably needs to improve, but you can’t go past Ciaron Maher and his stayers.

Russell says: Was bought by Australian connections from the UK at the end of last year, and arrived here with solid group 2 staying form, but hasn’t been able to fulfil expectations. Trainer Ciaron Maher was disappointed in his Caulfield Cup run, so sent him around in the JRA Cup a week later. Might need another year.

Meydaan (Ire)

5yoG, 54kg
Barrier: 22
Trainers: Simon & Ed Crisford
Jockey: James McDonald
Career: 14: 2-2-2
Last start: Ninth of 18, group 1 Caulfield Cup (2400m)

Payne says: Just kept coming in the Caulfield Cup, a brilliant lead-up performance. All reports are that it’s done really well. Tricky barrier but certainly has a good chance.

Russell says: On face value, the English stayer was entitled to finish closer in the Caulfield Cup after starting second favourite, but put that down to pilot error. Something went seriously amiss with Andrea Atzeni’s GPS. Love the replacement booking of “JMac” for the Cup, who rarely gets lost, and reckon he can win.

Absurde (Fra)

5yoG, 53.5kg
Barrier: 4
Trainer: Willie Mullins
Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy
Career: 28: 7-5-5
Last start: Seventh of 18, group 1 Caulfield Cup (2400m)

Payne says: Has drawn a great barrier and that really is crucial for him, so he’s a terrific chance. He has run really well in the past two years and I think he’s one of the main hopes.

Russell says: If you want to learn the art of resilience, speak to punters who have backed this Irish-trained gelding in the past two Melbourne Cups and the recent Caulfield Cup. They keep tipping him, and he keeps getting beat. Still, they will be saying he’s worth another chance. Again. Just in case.

Flatten The Curve (Fra)

7yoG, 53.5kg
Barrier: 17
Trainer: Henk Grewe
Jockey: Thore Hammer-Hansen
Career: 54: 11-10-5
Last start: First of six, Gold Cup Invitational, Kentucky (3319m)

Payne says: There’s something special about this horse. Looks really dominant in his races in Germany and really looks to have that X-factor about him.

Russell says: Has grown wings since joining Henke Grewe last year, winning all of his starts on turf and suffering his only loss for the German trainer on an unsuitable dirt track behind Parchment Party in the US. He’s a gelding on the up, albeit a seven-year-old, and 53.5kg is the right weight. Would have preferred a lead-up run in Australia.

Land Legend (Fra)

6yoG, 53.5kg
Barrier: 16
Trainer: Chris Waller
Jockey: Joao Moreira
Career: 22: 3-2-2
Last start: Last of 18, group 1 Caulfield Cup (2400m)

Payne says: Needs to improve. He doesn’t help himself, he can get quite keen, prefer others.

Russell says: Too bad to be true in the Caulfield Cup when many thought he could be a major player in the staying races this spring. Can’t have him on that run.

Smokin’ Romans (NZ)

9yoG, 53.5kg
Barrier: 11
Trainer: Ciaron Maher
Jockey: Ben Melham
Career: 53: 11-9-3
Last start: Eighth of 11, group 2 MV Gold Cup (2500m)

Payne says: Probably not in as good a form as you would like to see going into a Melbourne Cup.

Russell says: A veteran galloper who seems to have been around longer than the metric system. He did a great job of winning the Warrnambool Cup for his connections in March. That’s his limit. Can’t see him figuring over 3200m at Flemington in November.

Changingoftheguard (Ire)

7yoG, 53kg
Barrier: 24
Trainer: Kris Lees
Jockey: Tim Clark
Career: 17: 4-3-2
Last start: Sixth of eight, group 3 Geelong Cup (2400m)

Payne says: Has the ability, just hasn’t had the ideal lead-up run in the Caulfield Cup. In that race he got going early and didn’t hit the line strongly. But that’s not to say he can’t turn it around.

Russell says: A former Epsom Derby runner and would have been bought out to Australia by owner Lloyd Williams with the view of winning a Melbourne Cup. But he has lost the plot in his past two starts, and appears to have little chance. In the race for last place.

Half Yours

5yoG, 53kg
Barrier: 8
Trainers: Tony & Calvin McEvoy
Jockey: Jamie Melham
Career: 14: 7-3-0
Last start: First of 18, group 1 Caulfield Cup (2400m)

Payne says: Great barrier, loves the wet and is in terrific form. He just seems to step up to the mark when he’s asked, so he’s a huge chance.

Russell says: Usually with Aussie-bred Caulfield Cup winners the worry is that they might not get the extra 800m of a Melbourne Cup. Plus he has been allotted an extra 2kg by the handicapper as a penalty for the Caulfield win. But forget all that. He only has 53kg and is bred to be a marathon runner. Can win.

More Felons (Ire)

7yoG, 53kg
Barrier: 23
Trainer: Chris Waller
Jockey: Tommy Berry
Career: 21: 5-3-0
Last start: Fourth of 10, group 3 St Leger Stakes, Randwick (2600m)

Payne says: Been progressing along well. The rain brings him right into calculations. He’s got a nice light weight and likes the wet track so definitely a hope.

Russell says: Finished 12th in last year’s Melbourne Cup and does not seem to be going any better this year. Is rated a 50-1 chance by the bookies, and on its last-start fourth that would seem to be unders. Can’t see him in top 10.

Onesmoothoperator (US)

8yoG, 53kg
Barrier: 6
Trainer: Brian Ellison
Jockey: Harry Coffey
Career: 46: 6-11-6
Last start: First of 11, group 2 MV Gold Cup (2500m)

Payne says: Excellent run in the lead-up, winning at Moonee Valley, and has a good barrier. I think you’ve got to bring him into your calculations.

Russell says: A UK runner who grows another leg when he lands in Australia. Won last year’s Geelong Cup in a canter and cruised to victory in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup on Friday night, but did not win a race in between. Top 10 in the Cup might be his limit.

Furthur (Ire)

4yoH, 52kg
Barrier: 7
Trainer: Andrew Balding
Jockey: Michael Dee
Career: 8: 2-2-2
Last start: Sixth of seven, group 1 St Leger Stakes, Doncaster (2916m)

Payne says: Needs to improve but they wouldn’t have brought him over here for fun, so an interesting runner.

Russell says: Bought by racing commentator and Australian syndicator Lizzie Jelfs and has the right age and weight profile to win the Cup – in the same mode as 2018 winner Cross Counter. If the jungle drums start beating about his chances in coming days, heed their call.

Parchment Party (US)

5yoH, 52kg
Barrier: 3
Trainer: Bill Mott
Jockey: Johnny Velazquez
Career: 11: 4-1-1
Last start: First of six, Birdstone Stakes, Saratoga (2816m)

Payne says: Very interesting runner, especially on the grass. First American horse to come out, he’s a big, strong horse with a lot of presence about him. Will be a very interesting runner.

Russell says: An absolute head-scratcher. First American-trained horse to run in the Cup, so it’s tough to line up his form. But he is a dirt-track specialist, and has never won on turf. That’s like asking a major league baseball player to open the batting at Test cricket level.

For that reason, not keen.

Athabascan (Fra)

7yoG, 51.5kg
Barrier: 1
Trainer: John O’Shea & Tom Charlton
Jockey: Declan Bates
Career: 39: 4-6-4
Last start: Second of 11, group 2 MV Gold Cup (2500m)

Payne says: Good, tough stayer; an interesting runner for sure, especially from barrier one.

Russell says: Part of the B-grade set who is always thereabouts without being able to land a killer blow. Can’t see him finishing in the top 10. Has an interesting name, though – which apparently refers to the languages spoken by select groups of Indigenous Northern Americans.

Goodie Two Shoes (Ire)

7yoM (mare), 51.5kg
Barrier: 20
Trainer: Joseph O’Brien
Jockey: Wayne Lordan
Career: 26: 13-0-7
Last start: Third of eight, group 2 Lillie Langtry Stakes, Goodwood (2816m)

Payne says: Another runner that piques my interest. Like Furthur, I don’t think they would’ve brought her over here for fun. She’s a good quality horse and certainly one to watch.

Russell says: Has a whiff of an Irish sting about it, this one. A former hurdler who has been running well in group company in the UK since converting to the flat. Gets into the Cup with a featherweight (51.5kg) and is owned by legendary bookie and big-time Irish businessman JP McManus, who would love a new trophy for the cabinet. Would have preferred a local jockey, but if the stable backs it on the day, follow suit.

River Of Stars (Ire)

7yoM, 51.5kg
Barrier: 14
Trainer: Chris Waller
Jockey: Beau Mertens
Career: 21: 4-6-4
Last start: Second of 18, group 1 Caulfield Cup (2400m)

Payne says: Another one of Chris Waller’s, you can’t rule him out. Definitely in with a hope

Russell says: A Yulong stablemate of Cox Plate winner Via Sistina who was brought to Australia boasting group 1 form lines in France.

She finished third in this year’s Sydney Cup and second in the Caulfield Cup, suggesting she is a serious player.

Royal Supremacy (Ire)

5yoG, 51kg
Barrier: 21
Trainer: Ciaron Maher
Jockey: Robbie Dolan
Career: 14: 5-3-2
Last start: Fifth of 18, group 1 Caulfield Cup (2400m)

Payne says: Progressing along well. As I said, Ciaron Maher is just terrific with the stayers and Royal Supremacy is a good light-weight chance and with last year’s winning jockey on board to boot.

Russell says: Before last year, no one thought singing jockey Robbie Dolan would ride in a Melbourne Cup, let alone win it. Imagine if former The Voice contestant does it again?

It’s not beyond the realms of possibility, Royal Supremacy has superior lead-up form this year compared to last year’s victor Knight’s Choice.

Torranzino (NZ)

6yoG, 51kg
Barrier: 18
Trainer: Paul Preusker
Jockey: Celine Gaudray
Career: 33: 6-7-2
Last start: First of eight, group 3 Geelong Cup (2400m)

Payne says: Progressing along beautifully. Really good light weight, is a good, honest stayer and could surprise.

Russell says: Looming as the fairytale story of this year’s race. A Kiwi-bred gelding trained by an expert horseman from the bush and ridden by an up-and-coming female jockey. Sound familiar? It’s been 10 years since we’ve read this script.

Tough second behind Valiant King in the Bart Cummings and a strong Geelong Cup win.

Valiant King (GB)

6yoG, 51kg
Barrier: 10
Trainer: Chris Waller
Jockey: Jye McNeil
Career: 19: 2-3-3
Last start: Third of 18, group 1 Caulfield Cup (2400m)

Payne says: He could not have had a better preparation for this race. A great chance.

Russell says: An Irish import who has exploded out of the ground this spring after taking time to settle in. Finished 13th in last year’s Cup, but wasn’t suited by a wide barrier and slow tempo. Up to his eyeballs in the race this year, following a win in the group 3 Bart Cummings (2520m) and a great Caulfield Cup run.

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