Everest contenders: Your guide to picking a winner in the big race

1. Ka Ying Rising

Trainer: David Hayes
Jockey: Zac Purton
Slot-holder: Hong Kong Jockey Club (leased from ATC)
Barrier: 7

Sha Tin specialist or the real deal? The Hong Kong superstar has been the headline act for months, dominating Everest markets and discussions, but can he fire on foreign soil? Bred in New Zealand and originally trained in Victoria by Hayes’ sons at Lindsay Park, Ka Ying Rising has become the King of Sha Tin, racing exclusively on the pristine Hong Kong track, winning 14 of 16 starts, including 13 straight heading into Saturday’s race. The four-time group 1-winner’s performances have raked in more than $10 million and earned the five-year-old son of Shamexpress the rank of world’s best sprinter. Thirteen of his wins have come at the Everest distance, almost all on dry tracks, and his ratings have him well ahead of his rivals on Saturday. Still, doubts persist in some quarters after his third placing behind Linebacker and Everest long-shot Overpass in his only Australian trial, at Randwick, and Purton’s summation of the effort. Unfounded social media posts last weekend declared he was injured and out of the Everest, prompting bookmakers to suspend markets briefly. It has made for great theatre, but his Australian Hall of Fame trainer insists everything is on track. If it is, and he handles the Randwick surface, Ka Ying Rising should simply be too good. If.

2. Briasa

Trainer: Michael, John and Wayne Hawkes
Jockey: Tyler Schiller
Slot-holders: Max Whitby, Steve McCann, Colin Madden and Neil Werrett
Barrier: 10

The second horse into the Everest and Team Hawkes seem to be timing his run to perfection. The five-year-old son of Smart Missile was solid first-up in The Shorts (1100m), finishing second to a brilliant run from Joliestar, before taking out another key lead-up at Randwick, the Premiere Stakes, (1200m) two weeks ago ahead of Jimmysstar. A homebred star of long-time breeder Ian Johnson, the grey powered through his grades last season to win six of his first seven starts, culminating in the $1 million The Hunter (1300m) at Newcastle. The win announced Briasa as a genuine contender for an Everest slot, which he all but cemented with a breakthrough group 1 victory in the TJ Smith Stakes (1200m) in April. The draw was crucial for Briasa and copping barrier 10 makes his task much tougher, but if Schiller can find cover not too far off the pace, then he remains a winning hope.

3. Overpass

Trainer: Bjorn Baker
Jockey: Josh Parr
Slot-holders: Newgate and GPI Racing
Barrier: 9

At seven, Overpass is one of the veterans of this year’s edition and returns to the race after taking out last year’s consolation, the Sydney Stakes, by one and a half lengths and in a better time than the Everest winner, Bella Nipotina, that day. A free-rolling frontrunner, Overpass was 10th (2023) and sixth (2022) in his two previous Everest attempts but comes into the race first-up this time off trials and exhibition gallops. It seems the perfect scenario for the son of Vancouver, which has won four races and finished runner-up four times across nine first-up runs. He has already won $10.5 million for owners Darby Racing, a record that includes dual victories in the Quokka and group 1 Winterbottom Stakes, both over the Everest distance. Overpass typically does his best work controlling the race out in front, but the draw in gate nine, with speed horses inside him, will make that plan tougher to pull off.

4. Jimmysstar

Trainer: Ciaron Maher
Jockey: Ethan Brown
Slot-holder: TAB
Barrier: 11

With speed to burn in this year’s race with the presence of Mazu, Overpass and Ka Ying Rising, Jimmysstar looms large as a swooping threat, especially if they overdo it up front. The six-year-old was finishing quickly from back in the field when seventh, one and three-quarter lengths away, first-up in the Concorde Stakes (1000m). He then firmed in the Everest market after charging late to go down by a half-length to Briasa in the Premiere Stakes (1200m) with a brilliant last 600m in 32.48 seconds. His devastating turn of foot was also on show in his group 1 All Aged Stakes win over 1400m at Randwick in April. Jimmysstar was locked in for the Everest by the TAB in July, allowing Maher to plot the same path as his winner last year, Bella Nipotina. But while she was able to win after racing forward and three wide, Jimmysstar was always going to get back and be storming home, but the wide gate may put him too far back. He will need pace up front and luck to finish over the top of them.

5. War Machine

Trainer: Ben, Will and JD Hayes
Jockey: Tim Clark
Slot-holder: Coolmore
Barrier: 4

The Hayes brothers taking on their father, David, has been one of the great stories of this year’s Everest. The sons trained Ka Ying Rising briefly at the family’s famed Lindsay Park before he went on to glory in Hong Kong with David, and now they line up against him for the first time, with Stradbroke Handicap winner War Machine. The five-year-old, a close third on Everest day last year in the Silver Eagle at Randwick, has been unbeaten in four runs since coming to the Hayes stable following the passing of trainer Michael Moroney in February this year. Those wins included the BRC Sprint (1350m) and Stradbroke (1400m) at the Queensland winter carnival. The brothers left their run late for an Everest slot with the Harry Angel gelding, but he cemented a spot with Coolmore with a dazzling finish to claim the 1200m group 2 Gilgai Stakes at Flemington two weeks out from the showpiece. A nice draw in four and the booking of Tim Clark, who rode him in the Stradbroke, only adds to his chances. A sharp turn of foot off a soft run in a high-tempo race could give the boys bragging rights.

6. Mazu

Trainer: Joe Pride
Jockey: Jason Collett
Slot-holder: Yulong Investments
Barrier: 2

The last horse into the Everest, Mazu has earned a shot with creditable efforts against the leading Australian contenders in the vital lead up races. Setting a cracking pace up front, the seven-year-old has hung on for fourth in the Shorts (1100m) and third in the Premiere (1200m) to win Yulong’s slot left vacant by the loss of Private Harry to injury. With two runners in other slots, Yulong opted for Mazu, which was a length third in the 2022 Everest and 11th in 2023, both while trained by two-time winner Peter Snowden. He was fifth in the Everest consolation last year for Pride, who has largely searched for wet tracks to get the best out of the veteran before returned him this preparation as a speed machine. The draw in two should give Collett every chance to again set the pace and put Mazu in contention for the higher end of the prizemoney. While he does not look a winning chance, Mazu holds the key up front to the chances of many contenders.

7. Jedibeel

Trainer: Brad Widdup
Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy
Slot-holder: Mulberry Racing
Barrier: 8

The rank outsider of this year’s field, Jedibeel is the first Everest runner for Widdup and a debut entry for owners and new slot-holders Mulberry Racing. A two-time group 2 winner, the six-year-old Savabeel gelding is at least a couple of lengths off the leading contenders and has not been helped by a draw in eight. After an early setback cost him a run in the Concordes Stakes, Jedibeel resumed with eighth in the Shorts, five lengths off the winner, but he was better last start when fourth in the Premiere Stakes, four lengths behind. Connections will be hoping for a finish in the top half of the field to get a return on their investment this year, and that can only happen with luck in running and another improvement. The race’s most successful jockey, three-time winner Kerrin McEvoy, is a big positive for the newcomers.

8. Angel Capital

Trainer: Chris Waller
Jockey: Ben Melham
Slot-holder: James Harron Bloodstock
Barrier: 3

The only stallion in this year’s edition, four-year-old Angel Capital surged into Everest calculations with two excellent runs for Sydney’s premier trainer last month after coming from Clinton McDonald. The Yulong prospect, a son of Harry Angel, dominated the listed Chautauqua Stakes (1200m) then was a luckless but eye-catching fourth in the group 1 Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes (1400m) at Caulfield to earn a slot. Before that, he won at listed, group 2 and 3 level to mark himself as a rising star. Angel Capital has raced predominantly in Victoria and finished out of the placings in two Queensland runs early days. He is yet to prove himself in the clockwise direction but has trialled six times in Sydney in preparation for Saturday. With seemingly untapped potential and drawn well in gate three, he has explosive speed to feature in the finish with the right run.

9. Joliestar

Trainer: Chris Waller
Jockey: James McDonald
Slot-holder: Chris Waller Racing
Barrier: 5

The only survivor from last year’s field, Joliestar has led the challengers to Ka Ying Rising in the Everest markets since soaring to a seemingly effortless win in the Shorts first-up when sweeping past Briasa late from back in the field. She has not raced since but the world’s best jockey has stuck with the five-year-old mare, adding to her credentials. Waller, too, had plenty of options and chose the three-time group 1 winner for his slot. Joliestar was seventh in the Everest last year but was one of the best hitting the line after coming from the back of the field to finish one-and-a-half lengths away. Waller and McDonald combined to win in 2021 with Nature Strip and they could do it again if Joliestar finds herself in a handy spot with room to fly home off a hot pace.

10. Lady Shenandoah

Trainer: Chris Waller
Jockey: Damian Lane
Slot-holder: Fairway Thoroughbreds
Barrier: 6

After dominating the three-year-old fillies’ ranks in Sydney up to a mile in an unbeaten 2024-25 season, Lady Shenandoah has been set on a sprinting path by Waller this campaign – no doubt with hopes of an Everest run. A second to Headwall first-up in the Concorde Stakes (1000m), when she was held up for a run before surging to the line late, was enough to attract interest from Everest slot-holders. Winx’s breeder, Fairway Thoroughbreds’ John Camilleri, won the race for the Snitzel mare, after losing his own hope, Sunshine In Paris, to injury. Lady Shenandoah was then fourth – her first time missing a placing in nine career starts – after a wide draw and run in the Manikato Stakes at Moonee Valley. The result led to her drifting in Everest betting, but there is no doubting her X-factor, especially at Randwick, where she won the Flight, Light Fingers and Surround Stakes last preparation. Damian Lane rides after regular jockey and the world’s best, James McDonald, chose to ride Joliestar. McDonald’s booking was not confirmed until late, pointing to just how much her rates Lady Shenandoah. Like the other Waller hopes, she has drawn well and has the finish to be in the mix.

11. Magic Time

Trainer: Grahame Begg
Jockey: Michael Dee
Slot-holder: Inglis
Barrier: 12

A two-time group 1 winner, Magic Time was the second choice for Inglis after Skybird was injured in the group 1 Manikato Stakes three weeks ago. The Yulong-owned six-year-old mare was third in that Manikato when second up, after winning the group 3 Cockram Stakes at Caulfield, also over 1200m. A consistent performer on good ground, including victory in the group 1 Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes on 2023, Magic Time has an excellent record on heavy going at Randwick with wins in the 2024 group 1 All Aged Stakes (1400) and 2023 PJ Bell Stakes (1200m). In her most recent Randwick campaign, she finished sixth to Briasa in the TJ Smith and seventh to Jimmysstar in the All Aged. Her chances will rise if Randwick gets into the soft range with predicted rain on Friday.

12. Tempted

Trainer: Ciaron Maher
Jockey: Craig Williams
Slot-holder: Godolphin
Barrier: 1

The only three-year-old in the race, Tempted will be aiming to become the first filly to claim the Everest. She won the group 2 Riesling and Percy Sykes Stakes over the Randwick 1200m last season against the other fillies and was an unlucky third in the Golden Slipper in between those runs last season. The daughter of Street Boss returned with a dominant win in the group 2 Run To The Rose (1200m) at Rosehill for new trainer Maher to make her Godolphin’s leading contender for its Everest slot. Beiwacht gave Godolphin food for thought with a track record effort to win the 1400m Golden Rose, when Tempted was third, but the racing powerhouse went with the filly, which has the advantage of carrying just 51 kilograms in the Everest – 5.5kg less than the mares and 7.5kg below the geldings and entires. Stepping up sharply in grade but has shown exceptional class against her own age and should get an economical run from gate one under two-time winner Craig Williams. One to watch for if she sees clear air late.