A trainer’s verdict: Sam Freedman’s guide to the Cox Plate, plus our expert tips

The Cox Plate is a grand final for heavyweight horses. And like most title fights, Saturday’s showcase at Moonee Valley looks to be a race in two.

To win the country’s premier weight-for-age event you need a horse with tactical speed or change-up speed because it is generally a brutally run race. In fact, I see it as the ultimate 2000-metre test.

When it comes to jockeys, you are looking for riders with nerves of steel. The field will charge into the bridle at the 800m mark, surge again at the 600m mark, and then have to find another level for the last 250m rounding the home straight.

This is when you often see the Cox Plate change complexion, so jockeys who can keep their head will ultimately win the race.

James McDonald has won the past three, and trainer Chris Waller has flown four-time winner Hugh Bowman out from Hong Kong to ride Aeliana, so that has to count for something.

When combing through the field, you are also looking for the meticulous, well-planned grand final trainers and Waller is obviously the master in this regard.

So all things considered, it leaves me looking at the two obvious horses who have had faultless campaigns and are coming out of the best form race – Via Sistina and Antino.

But to be certain, let me run through the field:

Via Sistina: She’s been there and done it before, winning last year’s Cox Plate in record time. While she hasn’t seemed at her best to the eye this preparation, I think everything has gone to plan in Waller’s mind. She’s had her runs spaced as she always does, and she is a real grand final mare. Watching her during track work on Tuesday morning, she looked to be sharp and right on the ball. She finished third in the Turnbull Stakes, but it was a muddling tempo, so she can turn the tables on Antino, who finished second. To me, she looks the obvious one.

Antino: Really put his hand up in the Turnbull Stakes, but he needed to run well. Up until that point, his preparation had just been OK. His second behind Sir Delius in the Turnbull is the A-grade form when you look at Half Yours coming out of the same race and winning the Caulfield Cup. There was an asterisk next to his name in regards to running a strong 2000m, but he answered that challenge in the Doomben Cup. He needs to go to another level again to win over 2040m in a Cox Plate, but I think he can.

Aeliana: I’ve seen her in the yard a few times during this preparation and even by Waller’s admission, she hasn’t looked great in the coat. I suspect that’s why he decided not to run her in the Caulfield Cup. For that reason, she’d be one I’d love to see on race day. If her coat is glistening, she could run a huge race. On top of that, Waller would not line her up unless she was giving him every sign she was doing well.

Treasurethe Moment: She was brilliant in the Memsie, but she has not been at that same level since. Maybe she is struggling to make the jump from three-year-old company to competing against the elite. This is not uncommon. I would have liked to see her do more in the Might And Power Stakes because she didn’t seem to quicken at all and looked to shorten her stride over the dying stages. She could bounce back, and the inside barrier will suit her tactical speed and ensure an economical run, but you’re taking a risk.

Buckaroo: I couldn’t have this year’s Might And Power Stakes as the right lead-up race to a Cox Plate compared to the Turnbull Stakes. Some horses just win, but Buckaroo is not in the category. He seems to run well without getting his nose in front. I’m sure he can run well again, but I think the top seeds have the class on him.

Light Infantry Man: I would’ve thought he’d need slightly softer ground, and the draw makes it very difficult.

Attrition: He has a good record at Moonee Valley and can run well. His second behind Lindermann was excellent in the Hill Stakes, but the Turnbull form looks superior. He’s an exotic player for fourth, but I’m not convinced he can get closer than that.

Nepotism: I’m not sure what to make of him. I don’t think this year’s Caulfield Guineas was a strong edition, and he finished seventh, let alone first. With all due respect, I think the Cox Plate is probably an afterthought.

My top three: Via Sistina, Antino, Aeliana.

My top tip, Cox Plate trifecta and quaddie

- Danny Russell

Defending champion Via Sistina looks to have the Cox Plate in her keeping after a strong showing at the Breakfast With The Best track gallops on Tuesday morning.

She tugged regular rider James McDonald around the Moonee Valley course, dispelling any doubts that the Chris Waller-trained mare might not be at her best this spring.

The Age dissects the Cox Plate day program to rate the leading chances:

Cox Plate day: First race: 12.10pm. Cox Plate: 5.40pm
Track: Good 4. Rail: True. Weather: A top of 19 degrees, with a slight chance of showers.

Race 10: $6m Group 1 Cox Plate (2040m), 5.40pm

The favourite: Via Sistina decimated last year’s Cox Plate by eight lengths in record time. She ticks all the boxes: trained by Chris Waller, ridden by James McDonald and loves Moonee Valley. She trained the house down on Tuesday morning.

The threats: Queenslander Antino beat Via Sistina home last start in the Turnbull Stakes. That’s a good recommendation, and it has been the year of the banana benders. Aeliana was a shade disappointing last start but Waller has compared her favourably to Winx. Treasurethe Moment has looked a step behind since a bout of colic, but could challenge if back to her best.

The roughies: The Cox Plate has rarely been a race for outsiders but, if we are to see an upset, the most likely candidates would be three-year-old Nepotism or perennial placegetter Buckaroo.

Cox Plate tips: 1st Via Sistina (No.6), 2nd Antino (No.2), 3rd Aeliana (No.8), 4th Buckaroo (No.4)

Russell says: When James McDonald hopped off Via Sistina with a beaming smile on his face after Tuesday’s track gallop, that was enough for me.

Cox Plate trifecta play: 6 - 2, 8 - 2, 4, 8, 9

Russell’s best: Observer (Race 9, No.1) – Brings superior form into the race with a slashing third in the Caulfield Guineas. Extra distance should not be a worry.

Russell’s next best: Golden Path (Race 7, No.5) – Dropping back in class and distance. Just needs to replicate his Underwood Stakes run behind Sir Delius to win this.

Russell’s roughie: Movin Out (Race 6, No.6) - Love the Chris Waller-Ben Melham combination and this mare looked unlucky last start.

Cox Plate day quaddie: 1st leg: 1, 4, 5, 8; 2nd leg: 3, 5, 7, 8, 9; 3rd leg: 1; 4th leg: 6.

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