Melbourne have the world’s best player, but Penrith will win grand final preview

The NRL grand final might just be coming six weeks early on Thursday night. Penrith have now won nine in row and they’ve rediscovered their style – that tough, grinding footy that teams just cannot keep up with for 80 minutes.

I’ve been saying all year that I didn’t think they could win the title. But that was on the assumption they couldn’t get into the top four. Well, they’re now fourth. Look out.

The key for the Panthers’ premiership hopes will be how they handle these next three weeks, because they’re about to go to war and start playing finals early.

It starts with Melbourne, then it’s the ladder-leading Raiders in Mudgee. And then in round 26, they face Canterbury on a Thursday night at Accor Stadium, which will be one of the games of the season, and hopefully in front of a massive crowd given the way Bulldogs fans are turning up this year.

For Penrith, these three weeks won’t necessarily be about how many games they win, but how healthy they are going into the finals.

The Storm are my team to beat for the premiership, given their big-name players and the sting from losing last year’s grand final. The big question around their title chances is availability: what type of form is Nelson Asofa-Solomona in, and how is Jahrome Hughes’ shoulder injury.

But in Melbourne’s corner is Craig Bellamy – for mine the best coach of all time. At CommBank Stadium – which looked really slippery and heavy in the middle of the field on Sunday – both teams will back their defence, with an emphasis on discipline and kicking games.

I think the Panthers and Storm match up pretty evenly in these areas, which brings this contest down to match-ups and match-winners.

Cleary v Cam: polar opposites on and off the field

Nathan Cleary up against Cameron Munster is the game-defining clash for me: two champion playmakers who could not be more different as players and personalities.

Cleary is cool and controlled. He has a pretty conservative style, executes Penrith’s game plan and plays the percentages.

Munster has got no idea what he’s doing from set to set or from one play to another. He’s instinctive, all-out attack and doesn’t worry about making a mistake.

Munster is unorthodox and unpredictable, and that’s just off the field.

They’ll both play on the same side of the field and in wet greasy conditions, it’ll come down to a couple of big moments for a match-winner. You only get a few chances in this type of game, and these are the two men most likely to take them.

Grant and the grafter

Harry Grant, meanwhile, is the best player in the world right now.

Since State of Origin and Hughes’ injury, Grant has gone to another level – running more and producing great pass selection, all while topping the tackle count.

The past three weeks he’s claimed man-of-the-match honours from Channel Nine, and he’s already among the top three hookers the game has seen.

On the other side is Mitch Kenny, who is as underrated as he is tough. The tougher the game gets, the better he plays.

You won’t see the flashy plays from him, but keep an eye out for the way he leads Penrith’s line speed, their kick chase and how much pressure he can put on an opposition kicker. He wins all the effort areas at a team that prides itself on them.

And then you look at his passing game, and the ball he threw for Cleary to hammer his two-point field goal a few weeks ago against the Titans. A 20-metre pass, under pressure, with the game on the line isn’t easy, but Kenny nailed it so Cleary could keep the game alive.

Six foot five against five foot six

And then out wide, I’ve been really impressed with the left-edge combination of Blaize Talagi and Casey McLean. They’ve improved out of sight since the start of the year when they were very poor defensively and full of errors. Now they’re winning games for Penrith.

On the opposite edge will be Xavier Coates up against Brian To’o, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Penrith switch Tom Jenkins to mark Coates, given the Storm star is just so strong in the air.

Especially with the way making contact on an attacking player jumping for a kick is being officiated – an absolute joke. It’s near impossible for a defender to stop someone like Coates unless they can get a hand to the ball in the air.

To’o is the best winger in the world coming out of trouble: he’s an extra front-rower for the Panthers, contributing 200 metres in most games and quick play-the-balls. Coates is an amazing athlete and a great finisher. And when you put them together, Coates looks like he’s six foot five and To’o looks five foot six.

It’s like watching Arnold Schwarzenegger and Danny Devito in Twins.

There won’t be anything in it on Thursday night, and I’m expecting a really low-scoring game. Last year’s grand final was won 14-6 by the Panthers, and that was on a dry track. If Ashley Klein stays out of the contest and two of the best defensive teams in the NRL are able to go at each other without set re-starts or piggyback penalties, I think we could have only one or two tries scored by each team.

Joey’s tip: Panthers by two.

First try-scorer: Liam Martin

Man of the match: Nathan Cleary

Spray it loud, spray it clear

The most important combination for a rugby league side is between the dummy half and the first receiver, because the halfback is the link between the middle forwards and strike players out wide.

So for the halfback to be getting the ball when and how he wants it, that’s a hooker’s biggest job, especially with the game on the line.

And that’s why Mitchell Moses sprayed Tallyn Da Silva, repeatedly, on Sunday.

Professional sport at this level is incredibly competitive and Moses is an incredibly competitive person, and he sets such high standards. That spray was kindergarten stuff compared to what I’ve heard, and delivered, over the years.

Often it is your playmakers who yell and scream and carry on, because they drive standards and the team. It often makes a champion playmaker.

Moses is the one who decides when the dummy half runs and when and how he gets the ball as Parramatta’s No.7. I can guarantee you one thing, whenever Mitchell wants the ball from Tallyn now for the rest of their careers playing together, Mitchell will get that ball.

I saw during the week that they’re loved up on social media too, which is how rugby league players sort things out these days. There won’t be any issue and the Eels will be a better team for it.

Even in a world where you have to be so careful about what you say, even on a rugby league field, a spray is still very much fair game.

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