Home and hosed: Why Sydney could be left right out of NRL grand final

Canberra and Melbourne’s inevitable top-two finish could well have the NRL frontrunners all but assured of grand final spots already.

In a daunting prospect for both NRL bean counters and Sydney clubs alike, crucial wins for the Raiders and Storm last Friday have opened a four-point gap on third-placed Canterbury on the ladder, almost certainly locking week one of the finals in at Canberra’s GIO Stadium and Melbourne’s AAMI Park.

The Roosters’ shock loss to Parramatta has all eyes on the opposite end of the top eight as the Tricolours take on the Storm at home without star half Sam Walker, with the Dolphins and Sea Eagles still sniffing around a last-gasp finals bid.

But at the pointy end of the ladder Canberra are closing in on the $200,000 payday for their first minor premiership since 1990.

Both the Raiders and Storm have round-27 away clashes against the Dolphins and Broncos respectively. But week one finals wins would secure home preliminary finals in Canberra and Melbourne as well – making their next away trip the October 5 grand final at Accor Stadium.

Considering Canberra’s schedule took in trips to Las Vegas, Townsville, Darwin, the Gold Coast, Brisbane and New Zealand in the first three months of the season, home comforts for the finals will be treasured by Ricky Stuart’s side. Especially given the Raiders have a 9-1 record in the nation’s capital, which is matched by Melbourne at AAMI Park this season.

As perennial finalists in the NRL era, the Storm have won 10 of their past 12 finals on their home turf.

Since 2015, 13 grand final qualifiers have been played featuring an out-of-town team (discounting the COVID-19 impacted seasons of 2020-21), for a 10-3 record in favour of the home side. That record extends to 32-17 when applied to all finals in the past decade that involved a team travelling further than metropolitan Sydney.

While many consider Penrith the best-placed Sydney side to challenge for the title, their golden point loss to the Raiders has them likely to finish outside the top four – 113 of rugby league’s 115 premierships have been won from within it.

The financial implications of Melbourne and Canberra hosting at least week one and two finals will impact head office given the NRL runs post-season games and collects ticket and hospitality revenue. Clubs receive a small percentage of gate takings.

But given GIO Stadium has a capacity of 26,000 and AAMI Park can fit 29,500 fans, profit margins will be far smaller than if Canterbury were to finish in the top two and host two finals.

The Bulldogs have averaged crowds exceeding 32,000 this season and could reasonably expect to draw 60,000 to 70,000 fans if they hosted a final at Accor Stadium.

This masthead recently calculated the difference between the Raiders or Storm hosting a final compared to the Bulldogs as being as much as $2 million in gate takings, based on 40,000 fewer fans and a $50 average finals ticket.

On the paddock, Melbourne and Canberra will rest key players in the final round.

While Storm captain Harry Grant is facing a two-week shoulder charge ban that offers a silver lining of resting one of the NRL’s hardest working and in-form players, the club has several big names returning in the next fortnight.

Kiwi enforcer Nelson Asofa-Solomona will replace Tui Kamikamica this week against the Roosters, while winger Will Warbrick returned from a lengthy concussion-related lay-off in Queensland Cup on Saturday.

Sua Fa’alogo, who has been out for two months with a hamstring tear, is aiming to do the same this weekend, while centre Jack Howarth is nearing a comeback from a groin injury.

Club officials are leaning toward keeping Dally M halfback Jahrome Hughes (shoulder) on ice until week one of the finals, though giving him limited minutes against Brisbane from the bench will also be considered.

Stars Cameron Munster, Ryan Papenhuyzen, Eliese Katoa and Xavier Coates are in line to be rested for round 27, as the Storm have done in previous years once their finals position has been secured.

Canberra are less battered and bruised than their top-eight rivals given their three byes have all fallen in the second half of the season.

Winger Xavier Savage is expected to miss at least two weeks with a shoulder injury suffered against Penrith, but with Savelio Tamale (knee) set to return to play this week, Stuart has almost his entire top 30 squad available.

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