Hit these numbers and all is forgiven for NRL’s biggest disappointments

The Broncos and Eels were both smashed in round one, and deserved everything they got.

Brisbane’s ball control was diabolical in humid, slippery conditions against Penrith and their 61 per cent completion rate meant they ended up with only 42 per cent of possession.

Parramatta’s numbers in their thrashing by Melbourne were almost identical – they completed just 63 per cent of their sets and finished with 41 per cent of possession.

“Fatigue makes cowards of us all” is one of great American football coach Vince Lombardi’s most famous quotes (he borrowed it from US army general George S Patton), and it fits the two underwhelming round one performances perfectly.

Neither team built its game at all, and didn’t apply any pressure or create any fatigue in their opposition. Instead, they buckled.

The weight of extra defence – all self-inflicted – piled up, attempts to slow down the ruck resulted in six agains, those six agains turned into more six agains, and by full-time, Brisbane and Parramatta lost by a combined 78-4 margin.

So this week at Suncorp again, only one number matters, especially for Brisbane.

The Broncos need to complete nine of their first 10 sets: kick long, chase hard, tackle harder, copy and paste.

Forget everything else. After those first 10 sets, or roughly the first 20 minutes, then you can build a game plan. But you have to earn that right, especially in the first month of the season when your match fitness is down and there’s a bit of rust in your attack.

Parramatta’s smaller middle forwards were smashed by Melbourne with all the extra defence they had to do, and there’s potential for Brisbane to do the same on Thursday night.

The Payne Haas-Pat Carrigan one-two combo spells real trouble, just as J’maine Hopgood’s suspension robs the Eels of a key ball-playing option in attack.

Ezra Mam moving back into five-eighth with Ben Hunt on the Broncos bench also makes them a more balanced side.

The real balance they need to strike though is to ignore those attacking instincts and dumb their play right down: play conservative, win ugly and just find a way.

It’s the same for Parramatta. But the temptation to go all out shouldn’t be as strong as the reigning premiers, who boast so much attacking brilliance. For the Eels, Mitch Moses’ long kicking game should be their bedrock early; forget the flashy plays for now.

How I would coach Reece Walsh this week

The clash of the Samoan alphas – Haas and Junior Paulo – will go a long way to deciding this contest. Both big men are “play one” front-rowers; they like to get that carry early in the tackle count and either drag in three and four defenders or find a quick play-the-ball, and their teammates feed off them.

Then out the back, I’m looking forward to Reece Walsh v Isaiah Iongi. Both are creative threats, and while Iongi is the more conservative fullback, he’s got future superstar written all over him.

If I’m coaching Reece this week, I’m telling him to just run – and keep on running. Forget about passing – don’t think about it – just run.

The way he plays, there will be errors in his game – you can’t have the brilliance without a few mistakes from him. But this week, Reece, don’t pass until we’ve completed those nine out of 10 sets. By then the ball-playing will sort itself out.

Realistically, the Broncos have too much strike power and should knock this Parramatta team over, especially given Hopgood is out.

Brisbane need more out of Kotoni Staggs out on their right edge, and with his future halfback Jonah Pezet defending opposite him, Staggs has a vulnerable defender to aim at. Brad Fittler always says, “When you see Kotoni with that wild look early, he’s in for a big one.” I want to see that mad glint in his eye at kick-off.

Joey’s tip: Broncos by 10
First try-scorer: Jordan Riki
Man of the match: Payne Haas

‘Six again’: Keep momentum in moderation or you’ll kill the contest

And before we get to the best match of the weekend, let’s hope all the set restarts was just a round one blip.

I’m a fan of the “six again” rule overall because it has sped the game up and brought our smaller players back into the contest. Think of the change in top fullbacks, like Walsh and Dylan Edwards, and how they’ve added to rugby league.

But with set restarts now being applied from the 20-metre line to the tryline, the 64 (eight a game) we saw in round one was far too many, and they were far too influential in the Melbourne-Parramatta and Manly-Canberra contests.

The Raiders barely touched the ball for the first eight minutes and 23 seconds, and by that point there had been three penalties and four set restarts against them. The truth is, you can find a “six again” call in every set of tackles – that’s just how the ruck is in the modern game.

The referees have an incredibly tough job policing it all, but there needs to be a better balance from them, otherwise the momentum so many set restarts creates just kills a contest.

Cody v Cherry-Evans: It could be one-way traffic

So with set restarts and discipline in mind, this is where I think Friday night’s Roosters-Rabbitohs contest will be decided.

Souths were as impressive as the Roosters were disappointing in round one. My only concern for the Bunnies is that they are on a five-day turnaround after beating the Dolphins in Brisbane, so they’ve lost a training session with the travel day, too.

But like Brisbane and Parramatta, the Roosters have only themselves to blame for getting pumped by the Warriors: 13 errors, 11 penalties and four set restarts is just inexcusable.

There’s no better team in the NRL than Souths when they’re attacking from a set play, which is what penalties and a roll on from a “six again” can give them.

I have no doubt the oldest rivalry in the game will boil over at some point – there will be a flashpoint or two where ill-discipline reigns. Whoever handles that best will prevail.

But if the Roosters present anything like the penalties they did against the Warriors, then Cody Walker will have a field day.

With David Fifita and Latrell Mitchell outside him, opposite the Roosters’ suspect right edge, those three Bunnies will be licking their lips.

Daly Cherry-Evans has been in the spotlight for his poor defensive decisions against the Warriors, but he will at least get Robert Toia back at centre outside him.

The Warriors showed one shape for Tanah Boyd’s opening try, where DCE was out of step with Nat Butcher, rushing up and biting on Kurt Capewell’s angled line.

Fifteen minutes later, Capewell breezed past him and Junior Pauga because DCE committed himself to Chanel Harris-Tavita while Pauga was backpedalling. The No.1 rule in edge defending is whatever you do, you do it together.

The Roosters are missing Spencer Leniu (hamstring), Victor Radley (suspension) and Reece Robson (thumb), so their forward depth and bench isn’t as strong as it could be, while I think Cherry-Evans and Sam Walker deserve about a month together before we can really critique their halves combination.

In the meantime though, the Rabbitohs have an incredible storyline with Alex Johnston chasing the try-scoring record against their old enemy and Cody Walker lining him up down their left edge.

I think the wily old five-eighth is in for a night out and Souths are on for a 2-0 start to the season.

Especially if the Roosters can’t master the basics. Just like Brisbane and Parramatta, it’s boring but simple for them.

To be any hope, they’ve got to complete 80 per cent of their sets and limit themselves to no more than four set restarts and four penalties. Otherwise, the Rabbitohs will run riot.

Joey’s tip: Rabbitohs by eight
First try-scorer: Latrell Mitchell
Man of the match: Cody Walker