NRL clubs’ over-estimation of talent facing annual time of reckoning

The NRL landscape this coming season resembles Garrison Keillor’s “Lake Wobegon Days,” the novel of the fictional Minnesota town where “all the women are strong, all the men are good-looking and all the children are above average.”

OK, at Rugby League Central, chairman Peter V’landys is the strong guy, although the “Abdo-men” do a good job, particularly those who can stomach criticism.

As for the NRL’s children, if you believe the pre-season hype, all the 16 clubs are above average.

Keillor’s popular 1985 novel, based on his radio show, spawned what psychologists call “the Lake Wobegon Effect”, meaning the tendency to over-estimate abilities, particularly when compared to others.

The pre-season media hype has infected the autumn air with the sweet smell of possibility. After all, no club has lost a game, discounting the meaningless trials where reserve graders are run on at half-time.

Certainly, the middle clubs from last season are entitled to compare themselves favourably with the top four.

For the first time in NRL history, the top three clubs have all lost more good players than they have gained, while the fourth-placed Sea Eagles have neither gained nor lost players.

The salary cap has forced premiers, the Panthers, to unload grand final centres, as well as State of Origin forward, Kurt Capewell. The Rabbitohs have seen the departure of their captain (Adam Reynolds) as well as Dane Gagai who was pivotal on their high-scoring left edge.

The Storm have lost their fastest player (Josh Addo-Carr), their most inspirational (Dale Finucane) and their most versatile (Nicho Hynes).

Yet, all three clubs are still well above average, albeit with less impactful benches.

All of the middle clubs, bar the Knights, threaten. The Roosters’ injured stars return healthy, while their talented youngsters all performed well last year when prematurely promoted.

The Sharks new coach, Craig Fitzgibbon, is being hyped as the reincarnation of Jack Gibson and the club has recruited two of the Storm’s best in Finucane and Hynes.

The Eels demonstrated late last season they are capable of challenging the Storm and Panthers, while the Titans were very impressive in a trial against the Broncos, despite resting some of their key players.

The Warriors recruited well during last season, snaring a natural in Reece Walsh and the Raiders will probably be more settled after the English mutiny of a turbulent 2021.

The pre-season media hype has infected the autumn air with the sweet smell of possibility

Of the bottom clubs, the Broncos have lifted with the transfer of Reynolds and Capewell, together with the expectation lethal centre Kotoni Staggs will play a full season.

The Bulldogs bought up big but risk some of the older ones hearing that little voice in the head say, “run out there and rest on your [past] laurels.” Their pre-season performances have shown they have a lot of room for improvement.

However, any hype about the Dragons, Wests Tigers and the Cowboys being declared above average is, well, hype. St George Illawarra, minus a nucleus of “young veterans”, are hurting at both ends of the age spectrum.

Wests Tigers are slowly building a team under manager Tim Sheens, fitting pieces into a puzzling jigsaw, but their time is not now. Ditto the Cowboys who have lassoed a couple of average players.

So, with the top teams marginally weaker, the middle ones stronger and half the base improved, there should be fewer blowouts, compared to the past two seasons. The NRL has also levelled the playing field by rule changes, as well as the salary cap.

The contentious six-again rule has been adjusted to overcome the practice of teams deliberately breaching on tackles one and two when the opposition is attempting to exit its own half. Rather than signal another six tackles to the non-offending team, the referee is now more likely to award a penalty.

Premiers Penrith were the major culprits last year, as well as being the beneficiary of the rule which allowed a free replacement for opposing players put on report. In some key games, Penrith and Parramatta had almost double the number of allowed replacements, as a result of players concussed. Now, a free replacement is only given in cases where the offender is sin-binned, or sent off.

With fewer blowouts and closer scores, the NRL could resemble Lake Wobegon.

Footnote: While the book was fiction, the life of the author post-publication was tainted. In late 2017, the then 75-year-old Keillor was dismissed from his radio show following accusations of sexual harassment against a workmate.

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