October D-Day for Cummins as back injury clouds his Ashes build-up

Pat Cummins will know by mid-October whether the back stress injury revealed by a scan this week will prevent Australia’s captain from playing any competitive cricket before the first Ashes Test in Perth.

And Australia’s selectors may be willing to leave him out of calculations for next year’s Twenty20 World Cup in India to allow him to throw everything at Ben Stokes’ team in defence of a 15-year unbeaten run against England on home soil.

On the same day Mitchell Starc retired from Twenty20 internationals in order to prolong his Test career, Cummins was cleared of the kind of back stress fracture that would put him out of the game for up to six months, but a stress “hot spot” typically requires 12 weeks of rest from bowling.

That means Cummins is about halfway through the rest period required, and should he be cleared by mid-October may be able to play in the Sheffield Shield for New South Wales before the Ashes series starts.

“Given how far out we are, there’s the potential for some Shield cricket in the lead-up,” selection chair George Bailey said on Tuesday. “If it got to the stage where they were taken off the table, I still think we’d be comfortable with Pat’s experience and skill level and ability.

“This slows him down for when he actually commences bowling again, but in terms of gym work and getting on top of a lot of those other physical things he likes to get on top of before a big series, I’m pretty confident that will work out.”

The first three Tests of the Ashes series in Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide are quite generously spaced, with gaps of more than a week between each.

Bailey was confident that Australia’s frontline pace bowlers would be able to get through the early games of the series, before calculations around bowling loads and fitness became more important for the final two Tests in Melbourne and Sydney across Boxing Day and New Year.

“There’s a reasonable gap between the first three Tests and then the real stress point from a time and backing up point of view comes from the third Test onwards,” he said.

“In terms of our planning, not knowing how deep each Test will go and how much bowling will be required, I think it’s always part of the planning across the summer that you may need to go deeper than the first choice three or four.”

But beyond the Ashes, Bailey hinted that Cummins and even Josh Hazlewood may find themselves resting for a decent chunk of time in early 2026, even if it means they join the now-retired Starc in missing the T20 World Cup in India next year, before it is hosted by Australia and New Zealand in 2028.

“Our next major priority is the Ashes,” Bailey said. “You have a best-case and a worst-case scenario where you work through all of those, but the general plan is: let’s attack what’s in front of us and then we’ll adjust and see where we’re at.

“If you look ahead – not shying away from where Pat, Josh and Mitch have been with their age, throw Scott Boland into that as well – it’s not a stretch to say it’s unlikely they’re going to play every single game available to them.”

Bailey confirmed on Tuesday that Cummins will miss the white-ball games at home against India that precede the five Tests against England.

He will also be missing from a T20 trip to New Zealand, the squad for which was missing Starc due to his decision to retire from the short format. Starc’s 79 wickets is second to Adam Zampa among Australian T20 bowlers, but he has been in and out of the Australian T20 team in recent years, and was famously dropped during the 2022 World Cup on home soil.

At the same time he has become very much a mainstay of the Test bowling line-up, showing improved control and mastery of seam and swing with each successive summer.

“Test cricket is and has always been my highest priority,” Starc said. “I have loved every minute of every T20 game I have played for Australia, particularly the 2021 World Cup, not just because we won but the incredible group and the fun along the way.

“Looking ahead to an away Indian Test tour, the Ashes and an ODI World Cup in 2027, I feel this is my best way forward to remain fresh, fit and at my best for those campaigns. It also gives the bowling group time to prepare for the T20 World Cup in the matches leading into that tournament.”

Cameron Green will skip the New Zealand tour to play in the early rounds of the Sheffield Shield.

Australian T20 Squad: Mitchell Marsh (c), Sean Abbott, Xavier Bartlett, Tim David, Ben Dwarshuis, Josh Hazlewood, Travis Head, Josh Inglis, Matt Kuhnemann, Glenn Maxwell, Mitch Owen, Matthew Short, Marcus Stoinis and Adam Zampa.

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