Who will be the X-factor and what are the storylines to watch? Your guide to week one of the AFL finals

The home-and-away season is finally done; now it’s time for the business end of the season. We take an early look at week one of the AFL finals, and attempt to answer some key questions.

First qualifying final

Adelaide v Collingwood
Adelaide Oval, Thursday September 4, 7.40pm AEST

Storylines to watch: The Crows snapped a 10-game losing streak against the Magpies with a contentious three-point win in round 23. It would be easy to say this victory should buoy spirits, but the Magpies should have won this game, having had a whopping 71 inside-50 entries. Just how the visitors are received by the Crows’ supporters following the Izak Rankine suspension for a homophobic slur will be a major subplot. The Crows must deal with expectations – those that come from finishing on top of the ladder, and of wanting to do the right thing by Taylor Walker in his 300th game. However, a defeat here could allow Rankine to return … should they make the grand final. For the Magpies, is this the last roll of the premiership dice for an ageing list that has struggled in the back half of the season? We’ll soon see.

Head to head: Round 11 – Collingwood 11.8 (78) d Adelaide 10.8 (68). Round 23 – Adelaide 9.5 (59) d Collingwood 8.8 (56).

Form: The Crows have won their past nine games, but struggled in what should have been an easy kill against North Melbourne, their first game without Rankine. They also had to work hard to overcome West Coast but, like all good teams, have found ways to scrounge victories in games others would have lost. The Magpies have won just two of their past seven games, scraping over the line against the Demons last Friday, and haven’t been the force they were earlier in the season. They looked back to their best on Friday when, in the final term, they took the game on with speed.

Selection: The Crows will hope Josh Rachele (knee) is fit. The clever small forward has not played since round 17, but has resumed running. However, he may be saved for their second final. Max Michalanney (hamstring) is also eying a return, while Luke Pedlar (hamstring) could also be in the frame. For the Magpies, Bobby Hill (personal reasons) has asked the Magpies not to close the door on his season, but with only one senior game in the past two months, has much work to do fitness wise. Jeremy Howe (groin) is a major issue, the Magpies’ poor form over the past two months corresponding with his absence, before he returned against the Demons in round 24 and was hurt again. Wil Parker and Ed Allan are likely battling to replace Howe.

X-factor: Magpies coach Craig McRae declared Jordan De Goey was “a mile ahead” of where he expected him to be after his 26-disposal performance against the Demons, as he works his way back into full fitness and form. De Goey is an explosive, big-game performer, and he could yet be the man – either in the midfield or up forward – who wills this team into a qualifying final. Rankine would have been the Crows’ potential igniter, but Ben Keays also has the dash and flair to do that alongside the Crows’ key talls.

Key stats: These two teams know how to tackle, the Magpies ranked No.1 in tackling differential (+13), while the Crows are No.3 (+4.2). Both teams are also elite in scores from turnovers, the Crows ranked No.1 (+20.7), with the Magpies No.3 (+17.5) – that’s the tale of the modern game.

Early tip: Adelaide by 5 points.

Second qualifying final

Geelong v Brisbane Lions
MCG, Friday September 5, 7.40pm AEST

Storyline to watch: Last year’s preliminary final between these two clubs was arguably the highlight of that campaign. This shapes as another beauty. Chris Scott says whether the Cats’ soft run home with six straight games against non-finalists was a good thing or not won’t be known until after the finals are completed. Adding to that debate is that the Cats’ last two defeats were against fellow finalists, the Lions and Greater Western Sydney. For the Lions, the opportunity is there to seize back-to-back flags, franking their claims to already being the team of the decade. They have had an indifferent season, but their focus has now narrowed, and they are battle-hardened after a 10-point win over the Hawks.

Head to head: Round three – Brisbane 10.10 (70) d Geelong 9.7 (61). Round 15: – Brisbane 14.8 (92) d Geelong 6.15 (51).

Form: The Cats have gone 12-2 since they were humbled at home by the Giants in round nine. They have scored 100 or more points in their past six games – all wins – and could not be better placed. The Lions have won seven of their past nine games, including a shock loss to the Swans.

Selection: The Lions will welcome the return of dual Brownlow medallist Lachie Neale (quad), while coach Chris Fagan expects Jarrod Berry (shoulder) to be in the mix. Key forward Eric Hipwood (calf) is unlikely to return until later in the finals. Keidean Coleman (quad) may not play again this season. The Cats have only one player on their injury list, ruckman Toby Conway.

X-factor: We would like to say Bailey Smith for the Cats, but he accumulates possessions at will. We’ll plump for Tyson Stengle. While he hasn’t been as productive in front of goal this year as he was last, this man can turn a contest inside attacking 50 in the blink of an eye. And so can his opposite number, Charlie Cameron. We all know what Cameron can do in the air or when the ball hits the turf. He could set the MCG alight. The Lions have won all six games this season when Cameron has booted three goals.

Key stats: Both teams are elite at scoring from turnovers, the Cats ranked second for differential (+20) in this area, the Lions ranked No.5 (+11.5). However, the Cats are also elite in scores from stoppages, ranked No.3 (+10.7). The Lions like to possess the ball, leading the league in uncontested possession differential (+24.7).

Early tip: Geelong by 2 points.

Greater Western Sydney v Hawthorn

Elimination final
Engie Stadium, Saturday September 6, 3.15pm AEST

Storyline to watch: The Giants are desperate to atone for last year’s straight-sets finals exit when they twice squandered major leads. Have they truly learnt their lesson? For a handful of their veterans, including Toby Greene and Lachie Whitfield, the clock is ticking on their premiership quest. For the Hawks, they have backed up their surprise trip to the finals of last season, confirming they are one of the league’s elite teams. Beaten in a semi-final last year by Port Adelaide, do they have the fortitude to take the next step? We’ll see.

Head to head: Round three – Hawthorn 10.16 (76) d GWS 9.10 (64).

Form: The Giants have won nine of their past 10 games, their only loss in this period to the Western Bulldogs. The Hawks have won eight of their past 11 games, although those losses were to fellow heavyweights Fremantle, Adelaide and Brisbane.

Selection: The Giants have much to ponder. They could regain four key players, with Jesse Hogan, Josh Kelly, Jake Stringer and Jack Buckley all potentially available. Former skipper Stephen Coniglio could also return, provided he completes concussion protocols. Star small forward Brent Daniels made a strong return via the VFL from injury. For the Hawks, silky midfielder Will Day is gone for the season. The big question for the Hawks is whether Josh Weddle (back) can play a role. The dynamic backman has not played since the win over North Melbourne in round 16.

X-factor: It’s hard to go past Jack Ginnivan when it comes to the Hawks. We know he can have an impact with ball in hand, and has never been afraid to antagonise opponents. Wonder how he would go in a spat with Toby Greene? As for the Giants, we’re hoping Stringer can get on the park. The former Bulldog and Bomber was brought north to turn games with burst football, the Giants now needing him to do just that.

Key stats: These two teams use the ball well, ranked No.1 (GWS) and No.3 (Hawks) for disposal differential. The Giants also boast great connecting heading inside 50, ranked No.3 for scores per inside 50. The Hawks are also proficient in this area, ranked No.6, but the Giants are ferocious in the contest, ranked No.2 for tackle differential (+7.2).

Early tip: GWS by 2 points.

Fremantle v Gold Coast

Elimination final
Optus Stadium, Saturday September 6, 7.35pm AEST

Storylines to watch: The Dockers have made amends for their 2024 late-season flameout by making the finals this year in style. For a team that hasn’t always handled the big moments well, they did just that against the Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium. Now comes the chance to prove that they belong among the league’s best, while easing the pressure on coach Justin Longmuir. For the Suns, history beckons. One box has finally been ticked, making the finals, the next step being to post their maiden September win.

Head to head: Round 12 – Fremantle 11.9 (75) d Gold Coast 9.10 (64).

Form: The Dockers have been in superb touch, winning 12 of their past 14 games. This included their highest-scoring term of the year, against the Bulldogs, when they booted a game-breaking 7.2 in the second quarter. However, a 57-point loss to the Lions at Optus Stadium in round 23 was a concern. The Suns did their best to slip from the top eight when beaten by Fremantle, Geelong and GWS over consecutive weeks, but they responded by winning seven of their past 10 games, although two of their defeats were to fellow finalists Adelaide and the Giants, for a second time.

Selection: Defender James Aish has been in concussion protocols. Odin Jones, Aiden Riddle and Sam Sturt are out for the season. Retiring great Nat Fyfe was used as the sub against the Bulldogs. Will he remain in that role? For the Suns, the return of playmaker Daniel Rioli from fibula surgery on Wednesday night was a considerable boost; so, too, that of Bailey Humphrey.

X-factor: Shai Bolton has been one of the recruits of the season, his ability to turn a contest in favour of the Dockers reinforcing why the former Tigers’ premiership star was a coveted asset. When Bolton has had at least seven score involvements, the Dockers are 11-1 this season. With his tall forwards looming large, Bolton’s dash at ground level will give Damien Hardwick – a man he knows so well – headaches. For the Suns, Bailey Humphrey shapes as one to watch in September. The midfielder-forward knows how to kick a goal, and has lit up the midfield when given more time there this season.

Key stats: Both teams use the ball well, the Suns ranked No.2 for disposal efficiency differential, while the Dockers are ranked No.4. Both are mid-table for scores from turnovers, but the Suns are ranked No.2 for scores from stoppages differential.

Early tip: Fremantle by 11 points.

Keep up to date with the best AFL coverage in the country. Sign up for the Real Footy newsletter.