Time to sprint on the AFL’s run home: Where each finals contender can finish after round 24

Well, here we are. One round to go, and it’s all on the line for nine teams, excluding Sydney, who have top spot locked up, whereas Collingwood will need a double miracle in the final round to get the chance to defend their premiership. Regardless, the Magpies remain a mathematical possibility.

Port Adelaide have secured the double chance regardless of results this weekend, and now want to lock in a home qualifying final. That they feature with Fremantle in the final game of round 24 ensures an exciting finish.

The Western Bulldogs could finish as high as fourth should Brisbane and Geelong unexpectedly stumble, but the Bulldogs have to deal with a blockbuster Sunday clash against premiership contender Greater Western Sydney.

The rampaging Hawks have almost certainly locked in an elimination final, while the Blues have Patrick Cripps to thank for slipping back into the top eight. Now they need to defeat a St Kilda team buoyed by their upset of Geelong.

Strap yourselves in, for it promises to be a wild round-24 ride.

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Sydney

The verdict: The Swans may not quite be back to their mid-season best, and their game plan has largely been deciphered, but John Longmire has his team – if its performance after half-time against Essendon is any guide – purring again. We kept faith with the Swans through their sudden decline, and they now have top spot and the double chance locked up. It will be interesting to see if the rest any players for strategic purposes against the Crows.

Port Adelaide

The verdict: It’s with mixed emotions that the Power lock up the double chance, for star onballer Dan Houston is facing a lengthy suspension for a high bump on Izak Rankine. Should Houston miss most or, potentially, all of the finals series, Ken Hinkley’s hopes of finally landing a premiership will take a major hit. Regardless, they have a trip to Perth to face the Dockers in the final game of the round on Sunday. A win, and they almost certainly book two home finals, a major boost, particularly if Houston is absent.

Greater Western Sydney

The verdict: We have maintained through the run home that this season is the Giants’ best chance yet for a flag, and nothing has changed our thoughts on this after the Orange Tsunami held off fighting Fremantle on Saturday to post a record-equalling seventh successive win. The Giants and their sling-shot game plan are ranked No.2 for scoring from stoppages since round 15, and are fourth for overall scoring, led by Coleman Medal leader Jesse Hogan. However, while a top-four berth has been locked in, we’ve backed the Western Bulldogs to prevail at Mars Stadium on Sunday. The pre-finals bye will ensure Adam Kingsley’s men are fresh and ready to launch.

Geelong

The verdict: The Cats saved arguably their worst second-half performance of the season for Saturday night, and paid a major price, with a shock loss to the Saints, squandering a six-goal lead at the main break. However, they still remain in fourth spot, thanks to the Lions, who also faded and lost to the Magpies. Had the Lions won, the best the Cats could have hoped for was a home elimination final. They will defeat West Coast on Saturday to earn the double chance.

Brisbane Lions

The verdict: Now it’s the Lions’ turn to wobble, what was a stranglehold on a top-four berth now becoming a potential battle to simply have a home elimination final. A nine-game winning streak was broken at home by the Giants, this followed by an alarming fade-out against the Nick Daicos-led Magpies at the MCG. The Lions will beat Essendon to end the home and away campaign, but their top four hopes then rest on the Eagles conjuring one of the greatest upsets in decades against the Cats.

Western Bulldogs

The verdict: The Bulldogs have won five of their past six, and could even finish as high as fourth should there be a range of round-24 upsets. They now face another major test – a surging Greater Western Sydney in Ballarat. They appear to have worked out how marking talls Sam Darcy, Aaron Naughton and Jamarra Ugle-Hagan can all function together, while Marcus Bontempelli will again push for the Brownlow Medal. We’ll back them in at Mars Stadium on Sunday, but we’re still tipping them to finish sixth.

Hawthorn

The verdict: The Hawks are a lock to feature in September, particularly if the Kangaroos’ efforts against the Western Bulldogs are any guide. This is a side purring, winning 10 of its past 12, although the absence of Will Day – the man Dermott Brereton says is the Hawks’ best – will hurt. The Hawks could vault higher if other results go their way, namely if the Bombers prevail in Brisbane and the Giants win in Ballarat, but it’s more than likely they finish either sixth or seventh. Few teams will want to meet the Hawks in an elimination final.

Carlton

The verdict: Just when all seemed lost, Patrick Cripps did as he has always done, dragged his team to victory, this time against the Eagles, to have his team back in the top eight. The Blues still have injury issues to address, but the September equation is simple – beat the Saints on Sunday to book an elimination final. If they lose, they will rely on the Power edging the Dockers in Perth. We’ll back the Blues.

Fremantle

The verdict: The Dockers have dropped three straight, slipping from a top-four contender to now most likely missing the finals. They have been unable to overrun teams in the final term this season, despite the good work of Andrew Brayshaw and Caleb Serong. They now must defeat Port Adelaide, whom they lost to by three points in round six, and rely on other results going their way. We’ll stick with our prediction that they miss September.

Special mention

Collingwood

The verdict: The Magpies continue to believe, a stunning come-from-behind win over the Lions ensuring they remain a mathematical chance of making the finals. So, here’s what they need to do. They need to beat Melbourne on Friday night, ideally by about 100 points, to help close the percentage gap on Carlton. They need St Kilda to humble the Blues on Sunday, ideally by about 100 points. But even this miracle would be rendered obsolete should the Dockers beat the Power in the final game of the round. We have said for weeks the Magpies will fall short. We’re sticking with that projection.

Out of contention

The verdict: For those Essendon fans who wondered whether limping into the finals and potentially then being crunched would do the team any good, there’s no need to worry. The season is all but over. The Bombers’ resilience – again – remains a major issue, as does the true talent on this list. Dyson Heppell should have been given a farewell game against the Swans. There’s much to be done over summer, as decades now pass since the Bombers won a final. Ouch.

Others

Melbourne (44 points), St Kilda (40 points), Gold Coast (40), Adelaide (34), West Coast (20), North Melbourne (12), Richmond (8).

Top-eight projection after round 24

Sydney
Port Adelaide
Greater Western Sydney
Geelong
Brisbane
Western Bulldogs
Hawthorn
Carlton

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