The September blueprint: How footy changes in the finals

AFL coaches often talk about building a brand of football that can sustain the furnace that awaits their teams in September. Aside from the cliche that the pressure does rise come the pointy end of the season, what does finals football typically look like?

A dive into the data of the home-and-away seasons and finals campaigns of the past 20 years shows what awaits the eight teams left fighting for premiership glory.

Contested possessions on average have increased in all bar three finals campaigns since 2005, while the average number of stoppages typically increases markedly. There were almost 12 more stoppages per game in last year’s finals series compared to the home-and-away campaign. Although that was nothing like the 2017 finals when there was an average of 23 more stoppages per game, the September in which Richmond’s territory-based game plan and pressure at the contest played a role in such a major uptick en route to ending a 37-year premiership drought.

That contested possessions and stoppages increase highlights how much more physical contests can be.

That pressure around the ball correlates with an increase in tackles in all but four finals campaigns since 2005, while this could also explain, in part, why the number of free kicks typically have risen, although this hasn’t been the case in three of the past four seasons.

Collingwood premiership coach Craig McRae said the key to preparing for finals football was to adopt a method during the home-and-away campaign which remained robust on the sport’s biggest stage.

“You have got to win contest, and it’s real territory based, lots more contest to contest to contest,” McRae said.

“Teams that play uncontested [football] tend to get to finals, then it’s hard to be that team. Those sort of things get taken away from you quickly. You have got to be tough to win finals, and you have got to have players that step up.

“Everything matters a little bit more, everything is on the line. You would like to think you coach a team that everything matters all year, but, obviously, the intensity increases. The contest, there are just more numbers on the screen more.”

McRae, without having analysed the data, thought the number of free kicks may have fallen.

A byproduct of a hardened contest around stoppages and tackling is that only twice in the past 20 years in September has the average number of disposals per game, and disposal efficiency, increased from the home-and-away campaign. Disposals increased by 10 per game in 2007, and ever so slightly in 2016, while disposal efficiency was up in 2008, and ever so slightly in 2014. Last year, the number of disposals per game slipped by a whopping average of 18 come September.

The average number of marks has risen only once in the analysis period, that also being in 2008, highlighting an increase in pressure on the ball – and the man.

Intriguingly, for all the pressure, the average number of inside 50s have risen, even if slightly, over the past five seasons, but only twice in this period has this resulted in average scores in September increasing from the home-and-away round. Having possession is one thing, scoring is another.

Hawks coach Sam Mitchell said he and his team were still fine-tuning a game plan they hope can produce when it matters the most. Mitchell’s response was almost as if he had the above data franked in his mind.

“We hope so. A lot of what we are planning, and a lot of the messaging over the last couple of years, is, let’s try and develop a game style that will stand up in finals. So, there are certain ways that you can play that are more suitable to a high-pressure game that finals usually are,” Mitchell, a four-time premiership player, said.

“There are usually less marks, there is usually more pressure, there are usually more mistakes, particularly unforced ones. We have tried to create a game style that will stand up.”

Those mistakes Mitchell alludes to give opponents the chance to score off turnover, which is crucial, for 18 of the past 19 premiership teams have ranked top three in this category. Brisbane Lions, Carlton, Sydney, Western Bulldogs and Hawthorn rank top five in this sphere this season.

An increase in the number of inside 50s can be attributed to the typically heightened midfield skill and depth levels of the finalists, despite the increased number of stoppages and overall pressure, but one reason for the decrease in scoring is that the majority of the best eight teams boast blue-chip defenders and tight defensive set-ups.

The team-based statistics also marry up with individual stars, and those who have claimed the Gary Ayres Medal as the best player of the finals. There have been eight winners (Dustin Martin twice) since the medal was introduced in 2016, and with all bar one of the winners – Steele Sidebottom in 2018 – their average number of contested possessions increases. Patrick Dangerfield had almost five more per game as the Cats strode to a flag in 2022. Sam Walsh had more than three per game last season.

Dangerfield and Walsh were also typical of the 20-year team analysis, for they also lifted their average number of tackles, clearances and inside 50s in September.

However, Gary Ayres’ medallists don’t necessarily have more overall possessions. Roles can change, as it did for Martin in 2019, when he had eight less touches per game in September than he did through the home-and-away campaign, but the results were telling. Playing more as a forward, Martin, who went on to claim his second Norm Smith medal, averaged a stunning four goals per game, three more than he had been.

McRae, a three-time premiership player with the Lions, and an assistant coach at Richmond through their premiership run, said a premiership blueprint also included key players lifting when the stakes were at their greatest.

“A couple of years ago [in 2022] we looked ourselves in the mirror and said: ‘We can’t win this unless there is a 5 per cent improvement from us’,” McRae said.

“We hit the finals, and we thought Jordy De Goey would be that 5 per cent improvement, and we didn’t quite get there. You need your good players to step up, and they need to be healthy at this time of the year.”

While statistics can lead you down a path, there are intangibles that are needed. As Swans captain Callum Mills says, coaches and players need to be able to adapt on the run, while confidence and belief are craved. Hawks captain James Sicily, preparing for Friday night’s elimination final against the Western Bulldogs, echoed those words.

“I think we are full of belief right now. Our game is in a good spot, full of confidence, and we have beaten some pretty good teams by significant margins. [But] it’s a whole new ball game, a whole new pressure,” Sicily said.

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