The Dees can’t redeem their season and Dons are not done yet; Key takeouts from round 21

There were pre-season fears that Melbourne might flop this year after a difficult summer filled with drama, controversy and setbacks.

A disappointing loss to an under-strength Sydney in round zero seemed to confirm those fears, only for the Demons to win their next three games, over the Western Bulldogs, Hawthorn then Port Adelaide in South Australia in a hard-fought match.

Clayton Oliver, who spent the off-season in the headlines, was brilliant in the opening month of the season, making a mockery of the trade talk around him and his off-field challenges.

This column gullibly fell for it, labelling Melbourne in April as the AFL’s answer to the Redeem Team, the LeBron James-led American basketball squad that won Olympic gold in 2008 after a failed campaign four years earlier.

The Demons’ season has spiralled out of control in the four months since, and they are as good as certain to miss the finals with only three rounds left in a wildly competitive home-and-away season.

Simon Goodwin’s men have not won a final since their drought-busting 2021 flag, when they appeared primed for sustained success with a richly talented list built by the heralded Tim Lamb and Jason Taylor.

The Demons can mathematically still be part of September this year – but they won’t make it. They are two wins out, plus double-digit percentage, with Port Adelaide, Gold Coast and Collingwood to come.

Melbourne’s 97.9 percentage sums up just how disappointing they have been for much of the past nine rounds, in particular.

The 51-point thrashing to the Dogs on Friday night – the rival they defeated in the 2021 grand final, and in three of their four clashes after that – illustrated the different directions they are heading in this season.

Steven May (fractured ribs for a second time this year) probably won’t play again in 2024, while Christian Petracca’s season ended in June and first-year sensation Caleb Windsor (ankle) is highly likely done as well.

Petracca has arguably overtaken Max Gawn as the Dees’ most valuable player, particularly with fellow midfield headline acts Oliver and Jack Viney performing well below their lofty standard.

However, it is still unclear what Melbourne’s ruck plan is beyond 32-year-old Gawn, after the one-season rental of Brodie Grundy proved an unmitigated disaster. Ben Brown is retirement-bound, Tom McDonald is out of contract but may get another year, and Angus Brayshaw was medically retired in the pre-season.

Oliver is paid like a megastar but has not played like one this year.

His heavily interrupted pre-season appears to have caught up with him, so he has a huge summer coming up to ensure he gets back on his Hall of Fame path. The Demons need Oliver to rise again if they are to challenge for another flag.

Melbourne conceded 15 clearances to start their loss to Fremantle a fortnight ago, then lost the first 10 against the Bulldogs three nights ago. That is embarrassing stuff for what was once an on-ball juggernaut.

No one will care about any of this if they rally to do something special in 2025, which remains a genuine possibility. Anyone saying the Demons’ opportunity has passed them by is off the mark.

Melbourne have an opportunity, much as they did five years ago, when they shockingly tumbled to second last, ahead of only Gold Coast. Lamb and Taylor picked Luke Jackson at No.3 in that year’s draft, and traded their future first-rounder plus more to North Melbourne to grab Kysaiah “Kozzy” Pickett. Both Jackson and Pickett were key cogs in the flag triumph two years later.

Melbourne won’t slump that far, but have an opportunity again to reload in a draft universally heralded as strong at the top, and deep.

They might be able to grab Sandringham Dragons key forward Harry Armstrong to pair him with the impressive Jacob van Rooyen, or add one of the bevy of midfielders expected to fill most of the first round. The Demons could even do both, if they can trade in an extra first-round selection, just as in 2019.

That said, Melbourne are strongly linked to Port Adelaide star Dan Houston, who is contracted until the end of 2028. They would need to cough up a first-round pick, at minimum, to lure him back to Victoria.

Whatever happens, it is a critical juncture in Goodwin’s tenure. The wrongs can be righted, and quickly forgotten, but Melbourne as a whole – not just Oliver – have a massive seven months ahead.

How the narrative changes

We media hounds were sharpening our tongues when Jye Amiss kicked Fremantle 25 points clear of Essendon early in the final term on Sunday.

The Bombers faced a fourth defeat on the trot after a wasteful first half where they largely dominated the Dockers’ usually outstanding on-ball brigade, but leaked goals and frittered away their own scoring chances.

Half an hour later, Essendon were celebrating a gutsy victory thanks to a momentum-shifting five-goal surge, then a clutch Zach Merrett centre clearance that set up Sam Durham’s match-winning behind in the last 30 seconds.

It was a very different media conference with coach Brad Scott afterwards than it likely would have been, which proved the point he made himself post-game.

“There’s a fair bit to play out this year. I mean, just go back a month ago, and it’s not because the media take a position – it’s just the media reporting what’s happening,” Scott said.

“But then three weeks later, it completely changes. Three weeks [after that], it completely changes again. That’s not a criticism of the media; the media is just reporting what’s happening, but what’s happening is, it’s tight.”

It is a results industry, but we – and fans, mind you – let the week-to-week rollercoaster dictate too much of our reaction.

Imagine how different Carlton’s coverage would be if Mitch McGovern’s late shot made him the hero against Collingwood? And what if Tom Green missed his snap, and Hawthorn instead won again?

Slow-starting Swans’ untimely rut

Sydney’s once massive buffer at the top of the ladder is as good as gone after Saturday night’s staggering defeat to Port Adelaide in a game in which they conceded the first 71 points.

A bewildered and disappointed John Longmire did not mince his words after the 112-point loss, saying his first-placed team’s performance was “completely and utterly unacceptable” and “not up to standard”.

Three of the defeats were by two points or fewer, but there is a theme with awful starts that began before this horror stretch for a club that was three games clear on top after 15 rounds.

The Swans have won only eight of 20 opening quarters this year, and been behind at the first break in eight of their past 11 matches and level in another. The surging Lions are only half a game behind them.

Sydney lost contested possession by 27 in each of the past two weeks against the Power and Bulldogs – as hard-nosed Luke Parker served as the sub in both games – while trailing by a combined 79 inside 50s.

Their young forward line has not made up the shortfall either. Logan McDonald has kicked one goal or none in 11 of his past 13 games, while Joel Amartey, who was managed this past weekend, has a grand total of four majors in six matches since his nine-goal explosion at Adelaide’s expense.

The scoreboard impact has also plummeted for the likes of Isaac Heeney and Will Hayward, while Tom Papley’s ankle-related absence is hurting, too – and he may not return until the finals.

Roos’ blueprint emerging

North Melbourne’s 13-point win over Richmond in the battle of the AFL’s cellar-dwellers was not the best indicator as a one-off performance of how far they have come.

Instead, it is how the pieces of the puzzle are coming together that was notable. Cam Zurhaar’s decision to stick around is testament to that.

George Wardlaw (delayed concussion) didn’t play but is part of a midfield group that includes A-graders Luke Davies-Uniacke and Harry Sheezel, plus Jy Simpkin, Tom Powell, Will Phillips and hopefully Colby McKercher soon. Bailey Scott has sewn up one of the wings.

Their recruiting team deliberately went down the path of building from the midfield out, but now the other positions are starting to be solidified, too.

Tristan Xerri is the long-term No.1 ruckman, and might even be an All-Australian this season. Jackson Archer, son of club great Glenn, is the small defender they were hunting for. Charlie Comben is a highly promising key-position swingman who could become Nick Larkey’s permanent sidekick.

Up forward, Paul Curtis and Eddie Ford look part of the present and future, while Zane Duursma’s skyscraping mark might help kick him along. It took too long, but the Roos look poised to take a leap next season.

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