St Kilda’s recruiting splurge: The one real risk behind aggressive strategy

Questioning St Kilda’s list strategy has been an easy conversation starter among footy folk this winter.

That’s because the Saints have thrown money that no other club contemplated spending on the five trade targets they will land (as well as those they didn’t land) in an attempt to push back into contention having played just three finals (for one win) since Ross Lyon left in 2011.

That’s annoyed clubs because some players and some managers (not all and not in every instance) are now using St Kilda’s inflated deals as benchmarks when negotiating on behalf of their players.

But that hasn’t deterred the Saints who think their splurge is well-timed.

Carlton free agents Tom De Koning and Jack Silvagni don’t cost draft picks. Of the remaining three recruits, only the Suns’ Sam Flanders will cost a high draft pick, one St Kilda are prepared to sacrifice in a shallow draft. Leek Aleer and Liam Ryan will come cheap from a draft perspective.

The risk on that front is minimal because the excellent recruiting of the late Chris Toce (including plucking Callum Wilkie as a rookie), which the proven Simon Dalrymple built on last season, has laid a good foundation for the club when it comes to young talent.

To illustrate their position compared to another club, in 2025 the Saints squeezed 134 games into the 16 players on their list aged 21 or under (average 8.3 games per player) compared to Collingwood’s 16 games into 10 players (1.6).

Of course the Magpies have played in three of the past four preliminary finals for one flag whereas the Saints have played just one losing final in that span. But in terms of the future, it is less risky for St Kilda to splash on players than the all or nothing Magpies.

They also used two top 10 picks in last year’s strong draft after losing free agent Josh Battle to Hawthorn.

So the risk is overstated in relation to how they are working within the system because it saves clubs who lose the type of gamble they are embarking on.

After the AFL bailed out West Coast just seven years after a premiership with a draft assistance package means new regimes aren’t being held accountable for the sins of the past.

There is little to no moral hazard for an administration to use the full extent of the salary cap’s mechanisms particularly with the league’s centralised funding distribution model helping clubs not bursting at the seams with revenue. It’s a flaw draft assistant packages accentuate by saying if you take a risk, make it a big one.

That doesn’t mean the Saints don’t care about the future impact of their decisions.

They do, as their decision to draft top-end talent in previous seasons shows.

The real risk is to the reputation of those in charge now as they attempt to land the Saints what they term a special premiership, having won just one in their history.

It’s a tough task.

Flanders and De Koning have upside, but they are no guarantee to change the club’s trajectory as Patrick Dangerfield, Lachie Neale, Lance Franklin and Jeremy Cameron did when they arrived at their new clubs.

The money being spent on that pair would not want to be coming out of my pockets.

Perhaps they believe Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera is already that type. He may well be after what we saw this season, while Max King is a wildcard.

Of the five ready to arrive only Ryan has so far finished top 10 in his club best and fairest in 2025 (he was eighth) with De Koning more likely than Silvagni to finish top 10 in the Blues’ count on Sunday night.

The real test for the coaching staff is integrating the well paid new crew with the existing crew having listened to Wilkie over remuneration, potentially lost Rowan Marshall to Geelong (probably for a first round draft pick of some description), and made the former skipper Jack Steele – who stepped down as captain at his exit meeting – on offer to any interested party.

St Kilda’s hierarchy don’t seem to lose sleep over such issues, content that tough decisions is the only way to push them up the ladder given the compromised nature of the draft and free agency system, which rewards higher placed clubs more than it should under an equalisation model.

But they have few excuses now and they know it as club president Andrew Bassat sold the thinking to members at the Trevor Barker Award last week.

“Recruiting aggressively as we have, no doubt involves a degree of risk ... (but) there is no risk-free way to a flag and indeed, doing nothing is the greatest risk of all,” Bassat said.

“There’s a big queue of people lining up to take cracks if we fail. That’s fine because we’re not here to make friends.”

They would be battling on that front if they were. The big question is whether they can make finals.

The system won’t really punish the club if they don’t. It’s the leaders who will fall.

By being so aggressive, St Kilda’s leaders have put their reputations on the line. That is where the real risk lies.