Nine doesn’t go into eight. So who will be playing finals this September?

Wow – who saw this coming? And there are still two rounds remaining.

In one of the more unpredictable seasons in VFL-AFL history, one thing is certain – we won’t be hearing the “Collingwooood, Collingwooood” chant bellowing through the MCG come September. The Magpies are finished for season 2024, their late bid for finals ending in a controversial loss to the Swans on Friday night.

That the rebuilding Tigers and Magpies are no-shows means two of the biggest, and most passionate, supporter bases will be absent during the final month of action. That’s a financial, and atmospheric, loss for the league, but there will be plenty to look forward to.

Essendon, another old-school Victorian powerhouse, also appears all but out of the race, and the AFL coffers could take a further hit if Carlton’s rapid decline continues, the Blues having slipped to ninth after an injury-hit loss to Hawthorn on Sunday.

That the Western Bulldogs also lost means, as it stands, there would not be a final held in Victoria on the opening weekend of September. That five of the current top-eight teams are from outside Victoria means there is the distinct possibility of the MCG being eerily quiet.

The Swans have regained their composure and Port Adelaide their mental strength, while this may be Greater Western Sydney’s best shot yet at claiming a maiden flag. The Brisbane Lions, despite a defeat to the Giants, are still a legitimate threat.

Just what the final configuration will be remains an intriguing mystery, and that’s why the final fortnight of the season proper carries so much promise.

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Sydney

The verdict: The Swans ended a disturbing run of defeats with a stirring comeback win against Collingwood, and appear well placed to retain top spot in the final fortnight of the season. We backed the Swans to come good, and that’s what they did after trailing the Magpies by 27 points in the final term. Isaac Heeney and Chad Warner lifted after a rugged month, while playmaker Nick Blakey generated run. We are tipping two wins over the next fortnight.

Port Adelaide

The verdict: We had confidence in Port Adelaide, but not to this extent. The Power have won six of their past seven games to vault into premiership calculations. They appear to have eased concerns when facing blue-chip opponents, their corridor-based game plan holding up – to this point. Jason Horne-Francis has been magnificent. “It’s been a pretty tough season for every team this year, every team has had times when it hasn’t been perfect,” coach Ken Hinkley said. With the Crows and Dockers to come, the Power are timing their run perfectly.

Greater Western Sydney

The verdict: The Giants fell just short of the grand final last year, but this wide-open season may be their best chance yet of delivering a maiden flag. Six wins on the trot is the headline story, but their ability to storm home, as they did in the final term against the Hawks last week, and against premiership fancies Brisbane on Saturday, highlights the belief this team has under Adam Kingsley. We’ll back them in against the Dockers, but the Bulldogs is a line-ball bet. As it stands, Tom Green, Jesse Hogan and Brent Daniels, take a bow.

Geelong

The verdict: The Cats have transformed their season with six wins from their past seven games, the latest a come-from-behind victory over Fremantle in Perth led by the brilliant Patrick Dangerfield. The Cats’ skipper is well over his hamstring issues. After the tumult of 2023, the hungry Cats of 2022 are back. We’ll back them against the Saints and West Coast, with these two wins ensuring the double chance and a potential home final.

Brisbane Lions

The verdict: The Lions’ nine-game winning streak came to a halt in Brisbane when the surging Orange Tsunami claimed the Fortress on Saturday. The loss – the Lions squandered a 15-point lead in the final term – had major implications, for they are now no guarantee to have a home qualifying final. We had suggested the Lions would stretch their unbeaten run into September. With Will Ashcroft in fine touch, we’ll back them in against the Magpies and Bombers, but hopes of two finals at the Gabba will now also be determined by how the Power, Giants and Cats go.

Fremantle

The verdict: The Dockers have been a major disappointment, their contested work slipping. A fortnight ago, we backed them to finish in the top four. Now, their best bet appears to be playing off in an elimination final. Dare we mention they could even slip out of the top eight? That’s what we are predicting. Five times this season they have lost after leading at three-quarter-time. Remember, they have premiership aspirants the Giants and Power to come. “We are flat at the moment, but like I said to the players after the game … this is a tough game, and it’s going to deal some blows at times, but we’re not done,” coach Justin Longmuir said on Saturday night. We’ll see.

Western Bulldogs

The verdict: The Bulldogs had been one of the form teams, but their run of four straight wins ended in Adelaide on Sunday, their third loss in that city this season. Aaron Naughton must regain touch. The Bulldogs’ percentage is healthier than those of the Blues and the Hawks, and they do face lowly North Melbourne this weekend. Pencil that in as a win, but then comes a season-shaping clash against GWS in Ballarat. We’ll back them there, and to make the finals.

Hawthorn

The verdict: Winless after the opening five rounds, the Hawks have clawed into the top eight for the first time this season, their stunning win over the Blues making them look more like a legitimate premiership threat than a side fighting for eighth spot. A week after the heartbreak of defeat to the GWS, the Hawks are now primed for September action, for they now face the competition’s two weakest teams, and should get a percentage boost. Percentage could ultimately shape their September destiny. We think they will make it.

Carlton

The verdict: There was injury carnage for the Blues in a whopping 74-point loss to Hawthorn on Sunday (their heaviest defeat under Michael Voss), and they are now facing the real prospect of missing September, having slipped to ninth. We had backed the Blues to finish second, where they sat less than a month ago, but this is a disturbing collapse, adding greater need to a serious review of their fitness program. Voss has promised a “response”, but will they beat the Eagles? That’s line ball. Even if they win both of their final games, they may need to rely on other results to make the eight.

Special mention

Essendon

The verdict: It shapes as another year of pain for the Bombers. Their post-siren loss to Gold Coast and poor percentage have all but ended their finals hopes. Wins over Collingwood (round 18) and Fremantle (round 22) gave hope, but the bottom line is this: the Bombers haven’t handled the pressure in the back half of the season – again. Now come the Swans and Lions. The Bombers need to find a way to not let this season end dismally.

Collingwood

The verdict: The Magpies are all but out of finals contention, their stunning record in close games not enough to propel them to victory over the Swans. Coach Craig McRae pointed to umpiring concerns at the SCG, and the Magpies will also point to a delayed start to their pre-season, an early start to the season proper and injuries for their demise this year, but this cannot hide the wider issues with their ageing list. The game plan will also need to be revisited over summer.

Out of contention

Melbourne (40 points), Gold Coast (40 points), St Kilda (36), Adelaide (34), West Coast (20), North Melbourne (12), Richmond (eight).

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