It’s peak hour on the road to September: Where will your team end up?

Shane Warne once joked that his scriptwriter did an impressive job throughout his long and colourful career – and the same could be said about what’s unfolding in this whacky but riveting end to the 2024 AFL home-and-away season.

It was only a fortnight ago we had the Swans locked in for top spot despite a few mild stumbles, but their woes since – including a 112-point hammering from Port Adelaide on Saturday – means they are now fighting to retain a top-four spot. As for the Power, they are now a legitimate premiership threat, having seemingly shaken off their woes against blue-chip opponents.

For Carlton supporters, it’s time to panic, for the Blues are now fighting to remain in finals contention. A top-two spot had appeared their destiny only weeks ago.

The roller-coaster seasons of Collingwood, now without Jordan De Goey, and Essendon continue, while Greater Western Sydney are emerging as a legitimate premiership threat. But the Orange Tsunami have a potentially rugged run home.

The Brisbane Lions are the team to beat, while Geelong and the Western Bulldogs are in the mix. As for the Hawks, they may have run out of puff.

So, can your team make the finals? We analyse the run home for each of the contenders, and deliver our final predicted ladder which, in a season of uncertainty, will undoubtedly spark debate.

Sydney Swans

The verdict: Wow, not even Nostradamus would have seen this coming. Yes, the Swans are still on top of the ladder, by only two premiership points, but they are in the biggest slump of any finals/premiership contender. They have lost five of their past six games, with the past fortnight a particular concern. Opponents are denying their corridor ball use, and what’s happened to Brodie Grundy? The Swans managed only 48 points against the Bulldogs, a season low, then fell even further (36 points) in a humbling 112-point loss to the Power, the club’s biggest defeat since 1993. This weekend’s visit from the Magpies could shape their finals destiny. We’ll back them in.

Brisbane Lions

The verdict: Is there no stopping this rejuvenated unit now eying top spot? With Cameron Raynor in career-best form, the Lions are on a nine-game winning streak, and there is no reason not to think they cannot win their next three. The Giants, Magpies and Bombers are all in finals contention, but the Lions are a level above. We predicted they would finish third, but 53 per cent of those who took part in our poll last month tipped them to finish top two. They could well be right.

Port Adelaide

The verdict: This has been a startling transformation since Ken Hinkley was jeered by so-called supporters after the loss to the Lions in round 16, when the Power celebrated the 20th anniversary of their lone flag. There have been five wins from six games since, and none better than a 112-point pounding of the Swans. This included seven-straight goals to start the match. Forty-six per cent of respondents to our poll last month voted the Power would not make the top eight. So much for that, the Power now in the box seat for a top-four finish, and even a home qualifying final.

Greater Western Sydney

The verdict: The Giants are purring. Five wins on the trot has Adam Kingsley’s men in prime position to claim a double chance. Stirring wins over Melbourne at the MCG and Hawthorn in Canberra, the latter coming from 28 points behind, were galvanising, but now comes the real test – against the Lions at the Gabba. We’ll back the Lions, but the Giants, with Jesse Hogan thriving, are a legitimate premiership threat. Josh Kelly and Stephen Coniglio must return.

Geelong

The verdict: The Cats, top four for pressure acts over the past month, fell over the line against Adelaide thanks to Jeremy Cameron’s six goals, and now face another major test – against the Dockers in Perth. I’ll back the Dockers here, but the Cats should get the points against the Saints and Eagles, giving them hope of the double chance, a position 30 per cent of our readers who took part in our poll last month said was within grasp.

Fremantle

The verdict: How quickly things can change. The Dockers should have taken care of business against the Bombers, having a 25-point lead in the final term, but have now slipped out of the top four, and face a tough run home just to secure a top-eight berth. We’ll back them in against the Cats, but Andrew Brayshaw and Caleb Serong must lead the way.

Western Bulldogs

The verdict: The Bulldogs have flicked the switch, and have embraced their 2016 premiership mentality of: “Why not us?” Four straight wins, three against top-four contenders, have the Bulldogs well-placed, but they still have a tough three weeks ahead, and I include a bullish North Melbourne in that bracket. I’ll back them to get the job done in Adelaide, but, as Luke Beveridge has noted, the Dogs have previously stumbled at this point of the season. Importantly, they have found a way for tall forwards Jamarra Ugle-Hagan, Aaron Naughton and Sam Darcy to work alongside each other. Only 7 per cent of participants in our poll last month said the Dogs would finish in the top four. Surely, there are more believers now.

Carlton

The verdict: It’s red alert at Princes Park. As Nathan Buckley says, four losses from their past five games means the “dour” Blues now face potentially missing the finals if the season unravels from here. Imagine that? The Hawks will be desperate on Sunday, but we’ll back the Blues to respond, although they must improve their ball movement, which was terrible for three quarters against Collingwood. That the Eagles and Saints then await should be comforting. We had predicted the Blues to finish second, as did 34 per cent of readers who participated in our poll last month. Such are the violent swings of this season that a top four finish is still within grasp, provided the game plan is massaged, and Charlie Curnow, Harry McKay and Sam Walsh lift.

Essendon

The verdict: The Bombers are giving their fans some ride, and it was heart-stopping stuff at the MCG on Sunday when their season appeared all but over with the Dockers looking to have the game under control. That they were “third rate”, as coach Brad Scott put it a week earlier against St Kilda, to now edging a top-four aspirant after trailing by 25 points in the final term highlights their momentum swings this season. We’ll back the Bombers to beat Gold Coast, and there’s no reason they cannot edge Sydney considering the Swans’ dramatic slump. However, the Lions then await. Almost 70 per cent of readers in our poll last month predicted the Bombers to miss the finals. That still looks on the money.

Hawthorn

The verdict: The Hawks will rue squandering a 28-point lead and losing to the Giants at Manuka Oval, and now face what Nathan Buckley described as a mini-elimination final against slumping Carlton on Sunday (I’ll tip the Blues here). However, they shouldn’t forget that eight wins from nine games before the weekend had them as one of the form teams of the competition, particularly as they play the Tigers and Kangaroos in the final fortnight.

Collingwood

The verdict: The Magpies were back to something resembling their premiership best for three quarters against the Blues on Saturday, but fell over the line thanks to Mitch McGovern’s miss after the siren. They probably need to win all three of their remaining games, and rely on other results going their way, if they are to make September. The loss of Jordan De Goey hurts, but there is no reason why they cannot take the four points in a Friday-night blockbuster against Sydney, leaving the Lions at the MCG in a fortnight as a potential season-defining battle.

Melbourne

The verdict: Since their 2021 flag, the Demons have had a pair of straight-sets finals exits, and now comes the distinct ignominy of failing to even reach September. Yes, they mathematically can still make the top eight, but this is a team that is in freefall after three straight losses. That they need to win all three of their final games, boost their percentage and, obviously, rely on other results going their way says it all. Many of our readers who took part in our poll last month tipped the Demons to start their holidays early. That was a wise call, and a brutal club review is now expected.

Out of contention

Gold Coast (36 points), St Kilda (32), Adelaide (30) West Coast (16), North Melbourne (12), Richmond (8).

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