Forget the race to 17 flags, in the 21st century it’s the first to five that matters

At the end of 2000, Geelong’s premiership drought stood at 37 years. It had been five years since they had won a final, and another four before they would do so again. Brisbane had not won a flag, either as the Bears or the Lions.

Twenty-five years on, both clubs are not only chasing their fifth in that period but the right to be crowned the team of the 21st century.

These are the best of times for the two groups of supporters, especially so for those born before the internet became popular who endured the most harrowing forms of football heartache imaginable: repeated grand final defeats, each more soul-destroying than the previous (Geelong), sustained mediocrity (Brisbane Bears), and merger – or extinction (Fitzroy) – depending on your view on the tumult of 1996.

Since the turn of the century, there have been only two seasons where neither club made the finals (2006, 2015), and a further four (2005, 2012, 2014 and 2018) where both were out of action by the preliminary final weekend.

Forget the race to 17 flags, it’s the first to five that matters this century. Only Hawthorn can match the four premierships won by both Geelong and Brisbane. Between this year’s grand finalists, they have won a third of the 24 on offer. If the Hawks had maintained the rage last week, they would be in this conversation instead of the Cats.

Geelong is the club that has defied equalisation measures designed to bring the best back down to earth. They won the first of their four flags this century before the Hawthorn and Richmond dynasties started and remained contenders through those clubs’ subsequent rebuilds.

Since the turn of the century, they have played in 19 of 25 finals series for 15 preliminary finals and seven grand finals.

No team has won more games in this time than the Cats’ 394. Sydney, another September regular (though an absentee this year), are second on 351, their claims to be the 21st century GOAT cruelled by three grand final drubbings.

Since their drought-breaking premiership in 2007, the Cats have missed the finals just twice. Coach Chris Scott has presided over just four dead rubbers in his 15 years at the helm. The last time Geelong missed finals in back-to-back seasons, the man now coaching them was a hard-nosed defender for Brisbane.

Each time the cliff supposedly loomed, it turned out to be a mere pothole. This year is proof last year’s return to September was not dead-cat bounce.

In 2022, only Joel Selwood, Tom Hawkins and Mitch Duncan remained from their premierships of 2007, 2009 and 2011. This year’s team of 23 is markedly different to three years ago. Just 12 are suiting up for a crack at a second flag in four seasons.

When the cliff came for the Lions, the mighty fell hard. After falling just short of a four-peat in 2004, they played finals just once from 2005-18, a period in which they parted ways with three coaches – Leigh Matthews, Michael Voss and Justin Leppitsch. In eight of those 14 seasons, they finished in the bottom four.

All but one their 12 finals appearances this century have come either side of their dark age. This is their third grand final in a row. The last time they failed to reach the final four was in 2019 when a pandemic was more science fiction than reality.

Their tally of 299 wins places them a modest seventh, but only Geelong and Sydney can match their seven grand finals.

Collingwood, too, would have been playing a decider in a seventh year had they won last week. The Magpies are in the curious position of being unlucky not to have won three flags this century and lucky to have won one at all.

For Rodney Eade, who coached 12 seasons this century for Sydney, Western Bulldogs and Gold Coast, the Cats will still be the benchmark team of this century regardless of the result on Saturday.

“For me, it’s bigger than that,” said Eade, also a four-time premiership player with Hawthorn. “For number of games won, finals series, top-four finishes, they’re ahead of everyone else. Since 2007, they’ve been fantastic.

“Brisbane were in the doldrums there for a while, bottomed out. Geelong are the winners for sustained excellence over that period of time. Even if they don’t win they’re still the club of the first 25 years of the millennium.”

For the more hard-hearted judges, like Essendon premiership hero Matthew Lloyd, who see success in football through the prism of a premiership medal, only winning matters. It’s not the club that has won the most games in the season that lifts the cup, but the club that wins on the final day of the season.

Just this week, former Port Adelaide coach Ken Hinkley, who lost four preliminary finals as a coach and played in three losing grand finals as a player for Geelong, lamented on Nine’s Footy Classified how the ultimate success had evaded him.

“I know there can only be one winner every year, but premierships are what you play football for and what you are judged on,” Lloyd said.

“I heard Ken Hinkley speaking the other night and he was getting down on himself because he didn’t take his team to a grand final and win one.

“He was wonderful for Port Adelaide, but you can see he was judging himself on premierships. That’s what it’s all about. They’re extremely hard to win, but it’s everything. I know I catch up with my premiership teammates because that’s what it’s about.

“Whoever [of these two teams] gets the fifth will certainly have bragging rights.”

Geelong can slam the door shut with victory.

“Certainly,” Lloyd said. “But there’s no point being to all these prelims and grand finals if you can’t win them.”

Success should not be taken for granted. This time 100 years ago, the equal-most successful club of the 20th century was Fitzroy.

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