A return for Adams? Who will stop Daniher? Preliminary final previews

There are only four teams left in the race to be crowned AFL premiers. By Saturday night, we’ll know who will face off in the decider. We preview the two crunch matches this weekend.

Sydney v Port Adelaide

SCG, Friday, 7.40pm AEST

Selection calls

The Swans lost their captain Callum Mills to an ill-timed hamstring injury at training on Tuesday. Coach John Longmire may include the previous unlucky Taylor Adams, who was next man up; however, that would require a rejig that could send Ollie Florent into defence, qualifying final super sub Braeden Campbell into the starting side and potentially Adams as sub. The other option is for Robbie Fox, who can play forward or back, to replace Mills. Given the Swans just got over the line in the qualifying final, they may consider omitting a tall forward anyway as they were ineffective until Joel Amartey’s matchwinning goal.

Port Adelaide need to replace Todd Marshall who is concussed and could consider Charlie Dixon, who looked sadly out of touch in the qualifying final. Ollie Lord is another option who has played well in a final. Jason Horne-Francis was dragged off the ground like a wounded soldier in the semi-final, but he says he was suffering cramp. He also said his quad was fine after it was checked out at the final break. It will be hard for Ken Hinkley to keep out Dixon but there is a strong argument the Power’s chances of winning increase without him.

Three key match-ups

Willem Drew on Errol Gulden, Chad Warner or Isaac Heeney?
There’s much to consider here. Swan Heeney is the harder match-up and his aerial power as strong as his running. Hinkley could put Zak Butters or Connor Rozee on Warner and just ask them to beat him, while paying special attention to defence. That would leave Gulden, the superb Sydney runner and kicker, for Drew, who could go to the wing and lock that part of the Swans’ unit down. Miles Bergman looks the logical opponent for Heeney when the Swan goes forward and he may look to hand off to Ollie Wines at stoppage.

Harry Cunningham or Dane Rampe on Willie Rioli?
Rioli is the key to Port Adelaide scoring and with Mills out, Longmire will trust the underrated but ever-reliable Cunningham to slow Rioli. Rampe did the job on Toby Greene in the qualifying final, but Rioli has more elusive tricks than the Giants captain. As well, Rampe can play on smalls or talls and launch counterattacks, so the Swans may choose to give him a conventional match-up.

Tom McCartin on Mitch Georgiades
Georgiades has been Port’s only dangerous tall forward. He kicked three goals and turned the tide with a late spoil in the third quarter against the Hawks that led to a momentum-halting goal to Port Adelaide. McCartin is a quality defender and although he had some moments he’d rather forget in the qualifying final, looks a perfect match-up.

The question

Why have Port Adelaide got such a good recent record against Sydney?
Port have beaten the Swans in their past eight matches (five at home and three at the SCG) and had 71 points on the board before Sydney scored in round 22, with Rioli and Georgiades kicking three goals apiece to that point. If Dixon plays, they will have only two missing (Dan Houston and Kane Farrell) from the side that completed that dominant performance. The Power’s dominance came from centre clearance that strange evening, a feature of their game. It makes the match-up between the much improved Jordon Sweet and the star recruit Brodie Grundy vital. Grundy had his colours lowered in his most recent preliminary final, as a Magpie against the Giants, so he will be motivated to stamp himself early on Sweet. Port’s most recent loss to Sydney was in 2016 at the SCG.

The biggest challenge

The Swans will be overwhelming favourites, but they need to improve their starts. Only Richmond, West Coast and North Melbourne have worse differentials in 2024 when it comes to first quarters (the Swans are -5.9 points). They led Adelaide by a goal in a high-scoring first quarter in the final round, but since the bye they have kicked 25.39 to the oppositions’ 56.33 in first quarters and have trailed at the first break in nine of the 13 games. Port Adelaide need to apply the same level of pressure they placed on Hawthorn in the semi-final for four quarters to have a chance of causing another upset. They can do that when they come down from the emotional high of last Friday’s win. With belief back, a good record against the Swans and their clearance players working together again, they have a chance.

The tip

Sydney have too much class and experience on every line to let this slip.

Geelong v Brisbane Lions

MCG, Saturday, 5.15pm AEST

Selection calls

Star defender Tom Stewart is an automatic inclusion and Oisin Mullin the potentially unlucky player to make way, unless the coach decides on a hard tag. Sam De Koning is also a likely inclusion given the Lions have Joe Daniher in form and ready to have a huge impact. However, it’s harder to work out who makes way for De Koning, as the coach may want Jed Bews to quell Charlie Cameron and Zach Tuohy and Mitch Duncan are on the edge of selection but likely to play. Star forward Tom Hawkins, who has missed months through injury in his final season, won’t play unless there is an injury. Cam Guthrie would need to train the house down to be included, although he is good enough to find a spot. For Brisbane, Jack Payne did not look fit against the Giants, but it was a step forward for him to battle through the discomfort. Lachie Neale wore a moonboot back to Brisbane on Sunday as he battles an ongoing foot issue, but he should be fine to play.

Three key match-ups

Jeremy Cameron v Ryan Lester
Cameron is the toughest match-up in football and the Lions could consider sending their captain Harris Andrews to him. But they prefer to keep Andrews free to take intercept marks. Lester, the veteran who lives on one-year deals, might get the huge job when Cameron drifts back inside 50, but the Lions could potentially consider Jarrod Berry taking responsibility when Cameron moves up the ground. That would leave Payne to play on Shannon Neale and Andrews on Ollie Henry, who occasionally lacks competitiveness in the air.

Daniher v De Koning, Jack Henry or Mark Blicavs
The Cats will consider including De Koning to take on Daniher but if they believe he is not ready then Jack Henry or Mark Blicavs could be adequate if imperfect match-ups for the tall who has now kicked 20 goals in nine finals – including 16 goals in his past five. Daniher was the matchwinner against the Giants but remains infuriating. What can be said is he wants the ball in his hands in big moments – and that is a great quality in finals.

Tyson Stengle v Brandon Starcevich
Geelong’s Stengle was best on ground in the wet against the Lions at the Gabba in round six and ignited the Cats against Port Adelaide in the qualifying final. He also received Norm Smith Medal votes in 2022 and is a class goalkicker. Starcevich could not beat Collingwood’s Bobby Hill in last year’s grand final, but he will still be trusted with the massive job, while either Gryan Miers or Brad Close will be expected to keep Lion Dayne Zorko either accountable or under pressure when he disposes of the ball.

The question

Can the Lions quell the Cats’ ground ball game and speed forward of the ball?
The Lions performed best in the semi-final when they played surge football to storm home over the Giants, coming from 44 points down to equal the second-biggest comeback ever in a final v(behind Geelong over Carlton in the 1931 preliminary final). The concern for the Lions is they conceded 100 points and if they don’t beat Geelong in the midfield – with Patrick Dangerfield, Tom Atkins and Max Holmes – in good enough form to match Lachie Neale, Hugh McCluggage and the outstanding Will Ashcroft, the Cats’ ground level players will score, and quickly. The Lions can’t get sucked into the stoppage but hold their defensive formation and give the Cats no space to chain the ball out of the front and side of stoppages with handball.

The biggest challenge

Geelong have been held goalless in the opening quarter of their only two losses to the Lions in their past eight encounters. They must hit the scoreboard early and also work ferociously to both pressure the ball carrier and cut down the Lions’ ability to control the ball through uncontested marks. And they were inaccurate in the qualifying final but they won’t be able to repeat that in this match. The Lions must win centre clearance and give their defenders the chance to block Geelong’s exits by applying enormous pressure inside 50 when the ball hits the deck. Cameron and Zac Bailey are the most dangerous Lions and if they get their confidence up could cause maximum damage.

The tip

This is the third preliminary final between these teams in five seasons. Expect Geelong to keep their unbeaten record intact, but only just – because the gap between the two teams is narrower than it has ever been.