Victoria enters election year on political knife’s edge as opposition support surges

The Victorian political contest will head into an election year tantalisingly poised, with surging support for the opposition and a slump in the government’s primary vote amid community concerns about the cost of living, crime and the economy.

The latest Resolve Political Monitor shows an 11-point gap has opened between the Allan government and the Jess Wilson-led Coalition on primary votes, with Labor dropping 2 points to 28 per cent and the Liberals and Nationals increasing their combined share from 33 per cent to 39 per cent since the survey was last conducted.

While Resolve does not calculate a two-party-preferred result, preferences nominated by respondents to the poll indicate a 51-49 result in favour of the Coalition. To win the next election, the Coalition must secure an additional 16 seats.

Both sides of politics will find some good news in the survey, which was conducted in two parts on either side of the change of Liberal leadership from Brad Battin to Wilson and Premier Jacinta Allan’s “violent crime, adult time” response to carjackings and home invasions by young offenders.

Coalition strategists will be encouraged by a rising primary vote which peaked at 39 per cent at the end of Battin’s leadership before settling at 37 per cent under Wilson. Both these figures represent a substantial improvement since the 2022 state election, when the Coalition attracted 34.4 per cent of the vote.

Primary support for the Coalition is further buttressed by a popular reception for Wilson, the Liberal Party’s third leader in 11 months. Her positive net approval rating of 14 is the best by any Liberal leader since Resolve starting polling in 2021.

Allan in her first months as premier recorded a positive rating of 15.

Wilson has extended a hefty lead over Allan as preferred premier, with 45 per cent preferring the new Liberal leader and 26 per cent Labor’s longest-serving MP. Allan’s approval rating was negative 17.

Allan’s standing on both these measures has improved since her personal polling nadir in the lead up to the federal election, when her approval rating collapsed to negative 32 and only 23 per cent of respondents preferred her as premier.

The ALP will take some comfort from the level of popular support for crime reforms, in which children will be tried and sentenced in adult courts and potentially attract lengthier custodial sentences for violent offences.

When asked whether they supported the government’s policy response to rising youth crime rates, 77 per cent of respondents either said they supported or strongly supported the approach, while only 9 per cent opposed it.

Those in support included 77 per cent of respondents who identified as Labor voters, 86 per cent of respondents who identified as Coalition voters and 79 per cent of all respondents living in marginal electorates.

When asked what issue would most influence their vote at the next election, 37 per cent nominated the cost of living, while 23 per cent nominated crime and 13 per cent the health of the economy.

While Battin maintained a sharp focus on crime and community safety issues throughout his leadership, Wilson has sought to broaden the Coalition’s policy agenda to include debt and the economy, housing and health.

Resolve founder Jim Reed said the volatility of poll results reflected the frequent changing of leaders over the past two years. He said that as the 2026 Victorian election year approaches and the impact of this year’s federal election campaign recedes, voters are becoming more focused on state issues.

“As we enter an election year, the federal impacts on state political opinions seems to have retreated,” he said. “Voters are turning their attention to state issues and the new leadership contest.

“It would be easy to assume the bounce in the Coalition’s vote was down to Wilson alone, but our monthly samples show that Battin was already making gains. We’ll never know what might have happened, but she’s taken the reins of opposition at just the right time.”

Former Liberal leader John Pesutto was similarly ahead in the polls, recording a primary vote of 42 per cent in the changeover between his leadership and being toppled by Battin in December last year.

A concern for Labor strategists is that while the government’s latest policy offerings, including legislated work-from-home rights and its youth justice changes, are popular with voters, the government isn’t.

Reed suggests that after 11 years in power and overseeing record crime rates and debt levels, Labor is suffering an authenticity deficit among voters.

“Both leaders are aligned with what voters want them to focus on over the next year, but Allan’s new policies on crime and the budget aren’t benefiting Labor’s vote yet,” he said.

“If you have been dragged to the realisation that tough policing and fiscal measures are needed long after everyone else, voters find it less credible that you’ll actually follow through. It’s inauthentic.”

The survey results suggest that respondents have disentangled concerns about the federal Liberal Party from their views of the state branch. While at a national level, voters are abandoning the Liberals and the Nationals for One Nation and other fringe parties, Victoria is seeing estranged Liberal voters return home.

The surging Liberal primary vote was driven by support for independent and other parties dropping 5 points from the last survey to a combined 20 per cent. This carries an added benefit to the Coalition, which receives only one-third of preference flows – compared to Labor’s two-thirds – from Greens, independents and others.

Primary support for the Greens was unchanged for the third consecutive survey at 12 per cent.

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