New poll delivers bleak outlook for ‘terminal’ Battin leadership

Victoria’s Coalition parties remain on course for a fourth consecutive state election loss despite voters turning against Labor, not warming to Premier Jacinta Allan and holding serious concerns about crime and public safety.

The latest Resolve Political Monitor survey paints a bleak outlook for Brad Battin, who has campaigned relentlessly on law and order issues since becoming opposition leader at the end of last year, and coincides with a “terminal” loss of party room support over his reallocation of frontbench portfolios.

While Battin is not facing an imminent leadership challenge, Liberal colleagues from different groupings said on condition of anonymity that there was growing momentum to overthrow him.

There had been hushed talk, now abandoned, of a spill as early as Tuesday.

The major sticking point for now – and a lifeline for Battin – is that newly appointed shadow treasurer Jess Wilson has not been convinced to challenge.

Two sources told The Age that anger towards Battin was so strong that leadership plotting could move on to other potential candidates if Wilson did not seize her opportunity.

The Resolve poll shows that Battin’s choice of political battleground – crime – is resonating with Victorian voters, who on average, feel less safe in their neighbourhoods and homes than people living in other states. Only 53 per cent of Victorian respondents said they felt safe walking in their local areas.

Victorian respondents also expressed less trust in the police and faith in the courts and justice system than the national average. This suggests Battin’s focus on bail laws for teenage criminals – a campaign that has forced the Labor government to toughen bail tests for recidivist youth offenders – is tapping into genuinely held community fears.

However, this has not produced a measurable improvement in the Coalition’s electoral prospects under Battin’s leadership.

While primary support for Labor is down 2 points since the last survey to 30 per cent, the Coalition primary vote is unchanged on 33 per cent. This is 1.5 per cent lower than the primary vote recorded by the opposition parties at the 2022 state election, when they secured just 27 lower house seats in an 88-seat parliament.

Primary support for the Coalition was 42 per cent when Battin took the leadership from John Pesutto in late December.

Allan remains deeply unpopular. She has a net likeability rating of minus 21 per cent compared to Battin’s positive rating of 9. But since the last survey, she has narrowly closed the gap on the question of preferred premier.

The survey results show an opportunity for minor party and independent candidates as Victoria enters a state election year. Combined support for them is now tracking at 25 per cent.

The Greens remain steady on 12 per cent, a figure largely unchanged since the 2022 election.

The Liberal Party has been despondent for months about the opposition’s poor showing in repeated polls.

The party room, which meets on Tuesday for the first time since Battin reshuffled his frontbench, spent the weekend oscillating between grumpy and mutinous after learning details of the new-look team.

A clutch of MPs who all supported Battin’s leadership ambitions during the Christmas coup – James Newbury, Bridget Vallence, Roma Britnell and Joe McCracken – were either shunted sideways, demoted or overlooked for promotion in a reshuffle that has redrawn internal party allegiances.

Battin had promised McCracken a shadow cabinet position but made a last-minute change to instead bring in Nick McGowan, alongside Nicole Werner and Richard Welch.

Several MPs, speaking anonymously to be frank about internal frictions, described this as a shocking and unfair humiliation of a colleague loyal to Battin. Others questioned their leader’s political judgment.

“The reality of his decisions is that he has deceived people that put him in the position he is in now,” one said. “He has lost the trust of a large portion of the party room.”

Battin gave Wilson the coveted treasury portfolio, which the party room viewed as a short-term remedy to stave off a challenge. Newbury was made shadow treasurer after playing the role of kingmaker in the December coup and insiders said Battin had given his word he would keep the portfolio.

Former leader Pesutto was also left off the frontbench, along with MPs who had supported Battin’s leadership and believed they had waited too long on the backbench.

On Monday, Battin said he still hadn’t spoken to all his MPs about the reshuffle because some hadn’t returned his call. He said they might have been busy.

“I’ve spoken to nearly all of my MPs,” Battin said. “Some haven’t called back yet.”

He would not say whether any MPs had raised their concerns with him, saying all his conversations with colleagues remained confidential.

Battin’s new shadow cabinet came together for the first time on Monday. He opened the meeting by expressing frustration about a damaging story he expected to be published in the coming hours in the media.

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