Labor has given up on Prahran. It’s an astonishing act of political cowardice

It’s an astonishing act of political cowardice.

The Victorian Labor Party has ruled out running a byelection candidate in Prahran, where it has regularly attracted between 25 per cent and 30 per cent of the vote.

According to Premier Jacinta Allan, the decision was made by the administrative wing of the party and was based on an assumption that Labor had no chance of winning.

If that’s the benchmark, Labor should never have fielded a candidate in the nearby seat of Hawthorn in 2018 when John Kennedy unseated John Pesutto.

Nor the electorate of Nepean, that same year, when Chris Brayne won the seat (once known as Dromana) that Labor had only ever won under the Cain government in 1982.

Sure, this may be a byelection, but Allan’s suggestion that Labor shouldn’t run a candidate in Prahran because it hasn’t held the seat for the “best part of a quarter of a century” hasn’t convinced her caucus colleagues.

The decision to vacate the race was the subject of much debate on Spring Street this week. MPs from the party’s Left and Right factions were united in their criticism.

By exiting the field, Labor is effectively handing a win to the Greens or the Liberals – people Allan has previously branded “nasty” (in the case of the Liberals) and “disgraceful” (in regard to the Greens).

In the past year, Allan has also accused the Greens and the Liberals of stoking “racial division” in the community, but is not willing to take the political risk to keep one of them out of the Legislative Assembly.

“It says a lot about the current confidence of those in charge,” one Labor MP said this week.

While the premier says this was a decision of the party’s administrative wing, Labor insiders insist that had she wanted to run in Prahran, the party would have followed suit.

Those backing Allan are blaming the cost of a byelection campaign (estimated to be between $300,000 and $400,000) despite the fact the party would be reimbursed almost half of that cash based on their primary vote.

At the past three state elections, Prahran (which also takes in the suburbs of South Yarra, St Kilda, Toorak and Windsor) has been a three-cornered contest with the Greens, Labor and Liberal all attracting about one third of the vote.

Labor insiders, miffed by the decision, also insist – despite recent polling – that Labor has a strong narrative for a seat like Prahran. New laws to broaden legal protections against racial and religious vilification, as well as a pill-testing trial, are expected to play well in the area.

While Labor’s sinking vote and Allan’s falling popularity cannot be ignored, the Greens have hardly enjoyed a stellar few years.

Pollsters believe the party’s decline in support is driven by recent policy positions including the stance of some federal MPs on housing, support for the CFMEU, and the party’s position on the conflict in the Middle East, which is expected to hurt it in the southern parts of Prahran.

At a more local level, the Greens’ Victorian branch has recently lost hordes of members as it grapples with an internal row between the so-called old guard, who mostly want to focus on environmental protections, and newer members who wish to focus on the rights and safety of gender-diverse Victorians.

Then, of course, there is the unfortunate business involving the outgoing member for Prahran.

This byelection was triggered by Greens MP Sam Hibbins quitting after admitting to an affair with a staffer. Hardly the sort of behaviour that will encourage the good people of South Yarra, Toorak and Windsor to back the Greens.

It is for this reason Greens insiders are pushing for a woman to run for the seat. Former Albert Park candidate Kim Samiotis or the party’s former candidate for the federal seat of Higgins, Angelica Di Camillo, are considered popular options.

The Greens are expected to announce a candidate early next week.

Nominations for the Liberal Party close on Monday with a preselection scheduled for December 15. Candidates encouraged to stand include Rochelle Pattison, the former chair of Transgender Victoria, ex-Liberal candidate-turned South Yarra resident Rachel Westaway and former Liberal staffer Tim Udorovic.

To win the seat, the Liberal Party will need to secure a primary north of 45 per cent, but there is a quiet confidence within opposition circles that the party can win back the seat it lost in 2014.

Aiding the Liberal Party’s prospects is the fact the so-called teals are unlikely to back an independent candidate.

While the result won’t change the government, it will have an impact on the make-up of the house at the halfway point of the election cycle.

In 2022, Labor was re-elected with 56 seats in the 88-seat Legislative Assembly. The party has since lost two MPs – Darren Cheeseman and Will Fowles. By contrast, the Coalition holds 28 seats, meaning the opposition must pick up 17 seats at the next election. A big ask, but a win in Prahran would get them one seat closer.

With Labor out of the race, the outcome will now depend on where the 25 to 30 per cent of voters who previously backed Labor are willing to place their support.

Annika Smethurst is state political editor.

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