Miles sheds support but major parties neck and neck

The news

Almost one year after the Queensland election, Opposition Leader Steven Miles’ popularity has taken a tumble, while the gap in primary support between the two major parties has closed slightly.

Premier David Crisafulli’s personal rating has fallen from a high of +20 in the previous two-month polling snapshot to +17 in the latest Resolve Strategic survey for Brisbane Times.

And while Miles’ standing among voters has held largely neutral at -2, his score of just 22 per cent on the question of preferred premier is his equal lowest since he took Labor’s reins.

Why it matters

The survey of 868 voters in two polling waves across September and October comes close to the first anniversary of the Crisafulli administration.

It also follows the government’s long-awaited energy roadmap, and news about Crisafulli’s official move from his Gold Coast-based electorate to Brisbane.

The last polling snapshot for this masthead across July and August charted a significant decline in primary support for the LNP since its post-election high late last year.

Since then, the government has faced pressure on several fronts; pressure that it has similarly applied to Miles’ leadership. The next state election will be held, with a redrawn map, in October 2028.

What they said

Resolve director Jim Reed said the LNP government’s energy announcement and Crisafulli’s move “do not seem to have affected their voter support”.

“Fully 85 per cent rated housing as an important issue, and with half of those not currently on the property ladder saying they have simply given up on buying, this is a serious issue for Queenslanders,” he said.

The last poll for this masthead saw voters rank the government’s performance on housing the worst of six areas surveyed, with 46 per cent declaring it poor and only 31 per cent good.

“Our focus groups tell us that voters are hungry for a fix to the supply side of the equation from governments, but it’s also starting to affect people’s views of population growth and immigration too,” Reed said.

By the numbers

Primary vote support for both major parties has remained relatively steady, with the LNP falling one point to 33 per cent and Labor holding firm at 32 per cent.

Minor party vote shares also shifted only slightly, and within the 3 per cent margin for error.

Crisafulli’s personal net likeability score fell from +20 (the highest point in almost three years of surveys for this masthead) in July and August to +17, with Miles dropping from -1 to -2.

On the question of preferred premier, Crisafulli’s score fell one point to 39 per cent, down from a high of 44 per cent earlier this year.

The number of respondents unsure about their preferred premier jumped four points from 35 per cent in the last polling snapshot to 39 per cent, the highest level since late 2022.

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