Who will lead the Liberals now that Perrottet lost the election?

NSW Treasurer Matt Kean is favoured to be opposition leader after the Coalition lost Saturday’s election and Dominic Perrottet stood down, although any bid by the moderate powerbroker would likely face a challenge from Sports Minister Alister Henskens.

Kean, who took over as deputy Liberal leader after trade minister Stuart Ayres was forced to quit over the John Barilaro trade appointment saga, has long been considered a replacement to Premier Dominic Perrottet.

A senior moderate said Kean “would not be able to resist” the chance to be NSW leader, and he had significant support after his efforts in the campaign, including a major fundraising push and shoring up seats at risk from a teal takeover in Sydney’s north.

Although a polarising figure within the Liberals, Kean would have the most support in the parliamentary party to become opposition leader, but several sources have confirmed that Henskens, from the right faction, would be eager to nominate.

Asked on Saturday night whether he would run for leader after Perrottet’s resignation, Kean said it was “too soon” to turn his mind to it and he had not given it any thought.

Stuart Ayres, who looks to have lost his ultra-marginal seat of Penrith, was considered as a possible contender, one senior moderate party source said. Attorney-General Mark Speakman could also emerge as a leadership contender, although it is unlikely he has enough support.

Federal aspirations could also stop the treasurer from nominating, allies close to the moderate powerbroker said.

Several Liberal insiders, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said Kean was exhausted from the drawn-out state campaign and was eyeing a move to Canberra, possibly contesting the seat of Bradfield when it becomes available, or more likely North Sydney.

North Sydney was lost to teal MP Kylea Tink, ending the political career of Kean’s colleague and friend Trent Zimmerman, but the Liberals hope to win it back at the next federal election.

There are also likely to be other leadership positions up for grabs, including the leader in the upper house, currently held by former minister Damien Tudehope. He resigned mid-campaign after it emerged that he held undisclosed shares in tolling giant Transurban.

Roads Minister Natalie Ward is a likely contender to replace Tudehope, as one of the most senior women in the party. Ward missed out on preselection for the lower house seat of Davidson, which would have paved a possible path to her becoming party leader.

Tudehope would likely return to cabinet if the Coalition wins.

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